Prime-Time Props -- Thursday Night Football, Week 7

The Denver Broncos travel to New Orleans to take on the Saints for the Week 6 Thursday Night Football matchup. We’ll see two rookie quarterbacks in prime time, as Bo Nix and Spencer Rattler face off for the first time in their professional careers.

I have a five-leg same-game parlay ready for this one, so let’s get into the plays.

Denver Broncos @ New Orleans Saints

(Broncos -2.5, O/U 36.5, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Devaughn Vele 25+ Receiving Yards

Vele dealt with a rib injury that kept him off the field in Weeks 2-5, but in the two games he has played this season, he’s crushed this number. Across his two games this season, Vele is averaging 6 receptions, 7 targets and 58.5 receiving yards per game. He’s coming into the week off the best performance in his young career, hauling 6 catches for 85 yards against the Chargers. Vele provides a big target for Bo Nix, coming in at 6-foot-5. The two are building a connection through the two games they’ve played together, and I expect to see that continue against a Saints secondary that is allowing the third-most passing yards per game this season (262.2).

Courtland Sutton 25+ Receiving Yards

Sutton is undoubtedly the WR1 in Denver, and he’s dominated the target share through the first six weeks of the season. Sutton leads all Denver receivers in yards (277), snap share (81.6) and route participation (91.8%). Sutton has a 22.7% target share this season and has exceeded 25 receiving yards in all six games, averaging 46.2 yards per game.

Javonte Williams 2+ Receptions

DENVER, CO - OCTOBER 03: Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams (33) gets dragged down by Baltimore Ravens cornerback Marlon Humphrey (44) during a NFL game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Denver Broncos on October 3, 2021 at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, CO. (Photo by Steve Nurenberg/Icon Sportswire) — DENVER, CO – OCTOBER 03: Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams (33) gets dragged down by Baltimore Ravens cornerback Marlon Humphrey (44) during a NFL game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Denver Broncos on October 3, 2021 at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, CO. (Photo by Steve Nurenberg/Icon Sportswire)

Williams has exceeded two receptions in five straight games, averaging 3.3 per game. Williams has been a focal point in the Denver passing game. He is second among Denver receiving options in target share (12.6%), route participation (64.3%), and snap share (57.3%). Williams has caught 20 of his 26 targets on the season, providing his rookie quarterback with sure hands out of the backfield. Per FTN’s DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points Against Tool, the Saints have allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game to opposing running backs (40.3) and the 15th-most receptions (4.3).

Bub Means 25+ Receiving Yards

The Saints’ receiving core has been hit hard by the injury bug for the last two weeks. Star WR Chris Olave has been ruled out after suffering a concussion Sunday, and Rashid Shaheed is also out with a potential season-ending injury. This opens the door for rookie wideout Bub Means, who stepped up in Olave’s absence in Week 6. After Olave left the game in the first quarter last Sunday, Means caught 6 of his 8 targets for 45 yards and a touchdown. Means also had a 17.6% target share in Week 6, with Shaheed still on the field. With his top two pass-catching options sideline, I expect Spencer Rattler to rely heavily on Bub Means again.

Juwan Johnson 2+ Receptions

Johnson has cleared this number in four out of six games this season, averaging two receptions per game. He’s also in line to benefit from the Saints’ depleted receiving room with the absence of Shaheed and Olave. The Broncos have allowed the seventh-most receptions per game to opposing tight ends this season (5.7). Johnson played the third-most offensive snaps for New Orleans in Week 6 (71%), finishing behind only Shaheed and Alvin Kamara.