Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
By tracking every detail on every NFL play, FTN Data is the driving force that powers the actionable numbers explaining which offenses are the most explosive, the most consistent, and the most efficient and why.
Line play has always been the most important aspect of every successful offense. The Bengals essentially lost the Super Bowl last year because of the superiority of the Rams line. While the NFL has become primarily a passing league, the key to every great offense in the NFL will always be establishing balance between the run and the pass. This can come in the form of situational playcalling (how often a run is called versus a pass in critical situations) or the normal game plan.
The most common form of run blocking in today’s NFL is the zone run, which is the idea that lineman now block an area rather than an individual. This gives the backs more freedom to find the open gap rather than one specific gap. Another very common form of run blocking is the power and counter run blocking schemes.
What Is Power and Counter Running and Why Is It Important?
Power and counter blocking schemes are very efficient in the NFL. They rely heavily on the athleticism of the linemen rather than their size, which was the opposite idea some 10-15 years ago. Teams that consistently lean on these schemes in their offense do so because they believe that their personnel up front is athletic enough to do so. Power and counter utilize pulling linemen (linemen who generally cross the formation at the snap of the ball) to get into the open field or second level of the defense to be lead blockers. This means that your pulling guard, tackle or center has to be quick enough to get out of his stance and beat the back to the open hole and pick up the defender that fills that open area.
This idea is important to the makeup of teams and their rosters, because it dictates what linemen they pursue in the draft and free agency, as well as how good they truly can run the ball and how often they want to run the ball. Teams that have linemen who excel in the power and counter schemes often have success in the zone scheme because power and counter require more prowess for its success.
Below are the teams that have been the most successful this season with power and counter blocking schemes, powered by FTN Data. This list does not include QB runs, wide receiver runs or trick plays. This is to make the data sample as pure as possible.
The Top Teams that Utilize Power and Counter Run Schemes
1. Baltimore Ravens — 187 snaps, 4.8 YPC
2. Cleveland Browns — 147 snaps, 4.5 YPC
3. Detroit Lions — 116 snaps, 5.3 YPC
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — 98 snaps, 4.2 YPC
5. Philadelphia Eagles — 84 snaps, 5.3 YPC
Teams with the Most Explosive Plays in Power and Counter Run Schemes
(Explosive plays are plays of 15-plus yards)
1. Baltimore Ravens — 14 plays, 381 yards
2. Cleveland Browns — 10 plays, 236 yards
3. Detroit Lions — 9 plays, 245 yards
4. San Francisco 49ers — 9 plays, 301 yards
5. New York Giants — 7 plays, 194 yards
(Worth noting: Tampa Bay Buccaneers — 3 explosive plays for 64 yards; Philadelphia Eagles — 4 explosive plays for 79 yards)
The Browns and Ravens lead this list with the most snaps and the most explosive runs out of power and counter schemes. For game-planning purposes, this is great for opposing defenses to know. For evaluation purposes, it is telling that the Browns and Ravens may have some of the most athletic lineman in the NFL. While the Browns are powered by Nick Chubb, which is a big reason for the explosive plays, it is more impressive that the Ravens have been able to be this productive given that they have had multiple backs in their rotation while J.K. Dobbins battled injuries all year.
The Lions are on both lists as well, and you can attribute that to not only the line, which is led by Frank Ragnow and Penei Sewell, but also the superb work of Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift. For what it’s worth, Sewell’s versatility and athleticism made him a standout prospect when he was drafted. While size is great, the athleticism provides much more.
For the Buccaneers, who have struggled most of the season in different areas, it was a bit surprising to see them crack the list here. What did not surprise me is the fact that while they may have been top five in attempts, they were in the bottom half of the league in explosive plays and yards off of the concept. This may have been due to the various injuries to the offensive line, or it could be the idea that maybe what the offense was trying to execute simply wasn’t working with their personnel and the rest of their offense. It will be highly intriguing to see what the Bucs do in their first playoff game and whether they change the scheme in which they use to run the ball.
The Eagles are not that much better in terms of the explosive production from this run scheme, and the backs who run it. You could make the argument that this is not the best scheme for Miles Sanders to run in. With that said, it’s something that the Eagles do not need to shy away from as much, because the line is helping get over 5 yards per carry in that scheme. In turn, it’s more of a testament to the lines’ consistency rather than the backs and their explosiveness.
Lastly, taking a look at the Giants and the 49ers. Both teams may benefit even more by utilizing the power and run schemes. The 49ers are anchored by Trent Williams at left tackle, and they have been historically known as a wide zone run team. However, they are averaging over 7 yards per carry when they run power and counter and have nine explosive plays off of it. The Giants are averaging almost 7 yards per carry as well and are at the bottom half of attempts at running the scheme. While both teams are finding ways to win and running the ball effectively, it goes to show that these two teams have the ability to be even more versatile in their running attack and they have the personnel up front and in the backfield to match it.
As a whole, the teams listed above have some of the most athletic lines in the NFL. There is a reason why these teams value certain players at the guard and center positions that can move and get to the defenders in open space. Even for the teams that may not have the numbers to back the usage of the scheme, this article should give you a clear indication of what certain teams value in their offensive line and what they will be looking for in free agency and the 2023 draft to increase their run production for next year.
