Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
This week in “Pope’s Pick Six,” we are turning our attention to wide receivers. Although there’s a lot of depth at the wide receiver position in fantasy football, it’s still important to hit on your early picks.
Missing on a player is not a league-losing move, but it definitely can make your season that much harder, especially if your leaguemates hit on their top picks. With that in mind, make sure to do your pre-draft research. To help you with this, I have outlined six wide receivers who I am targeting in 2022.
Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos
Last season, Courtland Sutton returned from an ACL injury which wiped out virtually his entire 2020 season. In this return, he posted 58 receptions for 776 yards and 2 touchdowns, while finishing as the WR44 with 150.2 PPR points. His 98 targets led the Broncos in 2021, and of these, 80 of them were first-read targets, according to FTN’s Advanced Data. Along with this, he had one of the lowest drop rates on the Broncos at 2.9%. This was even with poor quarterback play, which shouldn’t be an issue this year after Russell Wilson was acquired by the Broncos this offseason. This is going to help the entire offense reach new heights, and with this, Sutton will be a huge benefactor. Throughout his career, we have seen Wilson support multiple top fantasy wide receivers, and at times multiple top-12 finishers. Sutton is now a full year removed from the injury and in line to be the primary target in the Broncos offense. He has a mold that is very similar to that of DK Metcalf, a player who Wilson leaned on heavily in Seattle, especially in the red zone where his size and leverage gave him an advantage. There is a reasonable path for Sutton to finish as a WR1 in 2022, as we just saw Wilson produce two WR1s in 2020 on a team that only threw the ball 563 times. Last season, the Packers threw the ball 593 times under the guidance of now Broncos head coach Nathaniel Hackett. With his ADP holding at WR26, you should be drafting him everywhere, as he is primed to outproduce this ADP by a lot in 2022.
Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills
Ever since joining the Bills in 2020, Stefon Diggs has become a fantasy star, never finishing lower than WR7 in PPR scoring. He has averaged 160 targets, 115 receptions, 1,380 yards and 9 touchdowns over the past two seasons. Last season, we saw a dip in his efficiency, as he had a career-low catch percentage at 62%, according to FTN Advanced Data. However, this season he will continue to be Josh Allen‘s go-to target, especially after leading the Bills in first-read targets over the last two seasons. In 2022, the Bills will be armed with a new offensive coordinator in Ken Dorsey. This has brought up a discussion of how the offense will look like, but it should remain similar to the past few seasons. Dorsey has already stated he will call plays more in favor of Allen, as he has been his quarterback coach the past two seasons. With a similar target share in 2022, Diggs will likely post top-10 numbers for the third straight year. After the likes of Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase and Cooper Kupp, Diggs is one of the few players who has not changed teams this offseason. With this continuity, he is a player we can easily understand and predict what his season will look like. With an ADP of WR5, you are likely getting him at his ceiling, but you also know that he is highly likely to return this value.
CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys
Fresh off his first 1,000-yard season, CeeDee Lamb is in line to become the primary target for the Cowboys in 2022. On top of producing 1,000 yards, he also led the Cowboys in targets (120), receptions (79), YAC (465) and first-read targets (94), en route to the WR19 in PPR scoring with 232.8 points. Throughout the season, we saw his role shift from a primarily slot receiver to more of a perimeter player, as he saw 332 snaps lined up outside. That was a huge jump from his rookie season where he saw only 35. As we head into 2022, this number will likely increase with the departure of Amari Cooper. Dallas will also be without Michael Gallup to start the season, as he is still recovering from an ACL injury. Also, the Cowboys may be without Dalton Schultz, who is still working through contract negotiations. This is going to create a lot of opportunity for Lamb early on, ultimately handing him the opportunity to produce weekly top-5 numbers, especially considering the Cowboys’ pass-heavy nature. We shouldn’t expect this to change, as they had huge success last season, averaging the most points per game in the league (31.2). There’s a path for Lamb to finish as the WR1 in fantasy football this season, and this is why you should be targeting him at his WR8 ADP.
Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders
Terry McLaurin has always found a way to produce quality fantasy numbers, even with poor quarterback play. He has yet to finish outside the top 30 in PPR scoring in his three-year career, finishing as high as the WR20 in 2020 and as low as the WR29 in his rookie season. Last season, he posted his second-consecutive 1,000-yard season and the least amount of drops in his career. According to FTN’s Advanced Data, he saw 103 first-read targets, the most on the Commanders by over 60 targets. This season, McLaurin is going to get the chance to play with Carson Wentz, the best quarterback he has had his entire career. Although he has struggled in the past, Wentz is a huge upgrade for McLaurin. Last season, Wentz saw his completion percentage return to 62.4% and was credited with 22 big-time throws from PFF. Along with this, he has the arm strength that will allow McLaurin to stretch the field more efficiently, resulting in more big plays. It’s not likely we see a huge target-share increase here, but an increase in efficiency is what will help McLaurin reach new heights. A top-15 finish is a possibility, but it’s unlikely he reaches the top 12, in large part due to the Commanders offense that has struggled to produce points. Last season, they were tied for ninth worst in points per game at 19.7. Although it’s unlikely he outproduces his WR17 ADP by a lot, I am still comfortable taking him over guys like DK Metcalf, DJ Moore and Amari Cooper.
Allen Lazard, Green Bay Packers
Currently, Allen Lazard is the primary target in Green Bay, and he is not being treated this way. Many people are ignoring him in favor of the shiny new rookie Christian Watson, who has multiple issues we should be worrying about. The most important is his overall rawness at the position, the other is the jump from the FCS to the NFL. Both of these could derail his 2022 season before it even starts. Over Aaron Rodgers’ career, we have seen him produce top-tier fantasy assets yearly, Davante Adams being the most recent. Now that Adams has moved on, there’s a large amount of opportunity for Lazard to step in and see an increased target share. Adams leaves behind 169 targets, making it easy to see how Lazard could see over 120 targets this season if healthy. Last season, he saw 60 targets and produced 40 receptions, 513 yards and 8 touchdowns en route to a 132.8 passer rating when targeted. That was second on the team only behind Randall Cobb. It’s easy to see how he could post a 1,000-yard season and find the end zone over 10 times in 2022. As one of the few returning offensive weapons, it makes sense that Rodgers would trust Lazard more than others in 2022, which should allow him to outproduce his WR51 ADP by a large margin. Although it’s unlikely he finishes as a top-5 wide receiver like Adams did, it feels like a top-24 finish could be in his future for 2022.
Marquise Brown, Arizona Cardinals
Last season as a Raven, we saw Marquise Brown finish as the WR22 in PPR scoring, with 226.3 PPR points. This was due in large part to an increase in targets. He saw 139 targets last season, up from 95 in 2020. With this, he produced the first 1,000-yard season of his career along with the most YAC yards of his career (396 yards). Through Week 10 of 2021, Brown was the PPR WR6 with 160.4 points, while averaging 17.8 points per week. During this span, he had four WR1 finishes. However, it was a tale of two seasons, as from Weeks 11-18, he finished as the WR48 with only 65.9 PPR points, largely due to an injured Lamar Jackson. This season, he will start the year as the primary target in the Cardinals offense, as DeAndre Hopkins sits out the first six games due to a suspension. That will create a path for Brown to see double-digit targets for a significant part of the season with Kyler Murray as his quarterback. Murray was second in the league in adjusted completion percentage of throws over 20 yards at 54.9%. This pairing may just unlock Brown’s fantasy upside, as the last time they were together, Brown produced 75 receptions, 1,318 yards and 10 touchdowns at the University of Oklahoma. There’s a path to a WR1 finish if he stays healthy all season. And once Hopkins returns, he may even produce at a more efficient rate. At a current ADP of WR23, he is hard to pass up on, especially considering the upside he possesses in 2022.
