Pope’s Pick 6: Values on the Decline in Fantasy in 2022

Welcome to Pope’s Pick 6. Twice a week I’ll be bringing you a quick look at my fantasy football thoughts in quick-hit form. Today: Players whose values will be on the decline in fantasy in 2022.

Every year, we see players enter the decline phase of their careers. Let’s try to get ahead of that with this list, six players who could disappoint this season and might never rebound to their previous heights. 

Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans

Derrick Henry has been one of the most consistent fantasy running backs over the past few years, finishing inside the top five in both 2019 and 2020 and on pace to finish there again last season before a foot injury derailed his season. In the first eight weeks of 2021, he averaged 27.38 attempts, 117.13 yards, 1.25 touchdowns and 24.16 PPR points per week. He was the RB1 with 193.3 PPR points and stayed in first until Jonathan Taylor passed him in Week 10. For 2022, Henry is being drafted like he’s close to the same guy, going in the top five by ADP, but that’s expecting too much after the moves the Titans made this offseason. The team added depth behind Henry this offseason by retaining Dontrell Hilliard and drafting rookie Hassan Haskins. Neither will challenge Henry for the lead role, but they are functional change-of-pace backs, something the Titans have lacked the last few years. They also retooled the wide receiver core, drafting Treylon Burks, who should be explosive in the screen game, and trading for Robert Woods. 

Although these moves do not directly threaten Henry’s job, they do threaten his 27 touches a game, 40% of the team’s offensive plays per game last season. That number will likely go down for the now-28-year-old, not good news for a player who has fed off volume for most of his career. Henry has not seen under 20 carries a game since 2018, when he averaged 12.84 PPR points a week. That would have been an RB18 finish this past season. Although I doubt his fall will be that drastic in 2022, I think he finishes closer to the RB12 this season than the RB1, making him a poor value at ADP. 

Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams

Cooper Kupp was phenomenal last year, producing 1,947 receiving yards and 16 receiving touchdowns on 145 receptions (leading the league in all three). That gave him 439.5 PPR points, most at any position in 2021 — the first time a wide receiver has been the overall PPR leader since Antonio Brown in 2014. As impressive as this production was, it was also unsustainable. Last season, the Rams lost starting back Cam Akers to an Achilles injury before the season started, leading to poor run production, with 1,683 rushing yards on the season at 4.0 yards per carry, both bottom-10 numbers. That meant the Rams had to change to a pass-heavier attack than in years past. Ultimately, they called over 50 more pass plays in 2021 than in 2020. 

Looking toward 2022, it’s likely Kupp sees some regression in targets after averaging 11.2 per game in 2021—his 191 total targets were 57 more than his previous career high. I expect his to come down closer to the 130 range this season, especially with the addition of Allen Robinson. Robinson will take the place of Robert Woods, but there is a chance he sees a more prominent target share than Woods did last year even before the veteran tore his ACL. Then add in a healthy Cam Akers, who likely sees significant opportunity in the passing and ground game, and it’s easy to see a path that reduces Kupp’s overall opportunity. That will make it hard for Kupp to pay off on being the first receiver off the board in drafts in 2022. 

Leonard Fournette, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The re-emergence of Leonard Fournette was fantastic for fantasy managers last season. He finished as the RB6 with 255.6 PPR points. This was driven by his 812 rushing yards, 69 receptions, 453 receiving yards and 10 combined touchdowns. That led to a multi-year deal from the Buccaneers this offseason, as the team let Ronald Jones walk in free agency. It got even better for Fournette’s outlook when Tom Brady decided to return for a third season with the team. On the flip side, there were a few more moves that were more unfavorable for him and the offseason. First and foremost, the Buccaneers lost starting guards Alex Cappa and Ali Marpet (though they softened the blow by trading for Shaq Mason). That will hurt the offensive line overall, not great news for a running back who has averaged only 4.0 yards per carry for his career. 

On top of this, the Buccaneers drafted Rachaad White, a pass-catching specialist who can also contribute in the run game. It might surprise you to note that 49% of Fournette’s fantasy points last season came via the passing game, so losing any work to White could be detrimental to his fantasy production, making him more of an RB2 than a top-10 option. Add all that together and it’s easy to see a path that this now-27-year-old running back starts his decline out of fantasy relevance as early as this season. 

James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals

Last season, James Conner played in a career-high 15 games and finished as the RB5 in PPR scoring, with 257.7 points. This was driven by a significant amount of red zone work, as he had 42 red-zone carries — most on the Cardinals and tied for eighth in the league — that he turned into a career-high 15 touchdowns. On the other hand, he was fairly ineffective as a runner overall, as he averaged a career-low 3.7 yards per carry en route to 752 rushing yards. He also contributed 375 receiving yards and three touchdowns on 37 receptions. Overall it was an impressive performance, but one that got a lot of its value while Chase Edmonds was out of the lineup. In the 11 games Conner and Edmonds played together, Conner averaged 13.72 PPR points per game, compared to 23.05 PPG when Edmonds was out. 

Edmonds is gone now, but the Cardinals replaced him with free agent signee Darrel Williams and rookie sixth-rounder Keaontay Ingram. Both running backs are both capable of handling both passing and ground work. Last season, Williams stepped up in place of Clyde Edwards-Helaire in Kansas City and produced an RB20 season with 196 points. His 47 receptions (on 57 targets) for 452 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns are why I believe Williams will fill the void Edmonds has left behind. Assuming that’s the case, Conner is more likely to be more like the back he was with Edmonds last year than the 23-point star he was without.

Amari Cooper, WR, Cleveland Browns

Over the last four seasons, Amari Cooper has posted respectable fantasy numbers, finishing in the top 15 receivers three times. Over this span, he had three 1,000-yard seasons and has five total in his seven seasons. He fell off in 2021, seeing his lowest target total (104) since his final full season with the Raiders in 2017. He produced only 865 yards on his 68 receptions, buoying his value slightly with a career-high-tying 8 touchdowns. His 12.7 yards per catch brought down his career average for the second year in a row, making it more like he may have lost a step. With the emergence of CeeDee Lamb, the Cowboys sent Cooper off to Cleveland this offseason, a less than ideal move for Cooper. He is moving from a team that attempted the sixth-most passing attempts last year to one that ran the ball 56% of the time, the sixth-highest rushing rate. 

With a Deshaun Watson suspension of some length looming, the Browns’ rush percentage likely stays high as the team leans on Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. The Browns haven’t produced a top 30 fantasy receiver in either of the last two years, and there’s a chance that happens again in 2022. The team’s dedication to the run makes it more likely Cooper comes in with fewer than 100 targets, especially if Jacoby Brissett sees extended time as the quarterback. With decreased volume, Cooper would need to repeat his high touchdown rate to repeat his WR27 finish from last year, let alone reach the top 24.

Adam Thielen, WR, Minnesota Vikings 

Adam Thielen has been a staple in fantasy football ever since his 2016 breakout. He has finished as a WR1 three times, as high as the WR7 in PPR in 2018. Over the past three seasons, though, we have seen the injuries add up along with his age, as Thielen has only played in 38 of 49 games, including missing four games in 2021. That has led to a dropoff in production — Thielen has not topped 1,000 yards in any of the past three seasons. It’s been his touchdown production that has saved him, as he has scored 30 touchdowns during this span (fourth in the league) despite his missed time – including 14 in his 2020 WR10 season. Last year, Thielen’s yards-per-reception average (10.8) came in more than two yards below his career average of 12.9, indicating that the soon-to-be 32-year-old may have lost a step. We have also seen an ascension to stardom from Justin Jefferson, becoming the main target in the offense. We also saw K.J. Osborn come into his own last season and produce some impressive numbers for the Vikings, likely earning him a larger role this season. The team is also getting Irv Smith back from his knee injury this season and it is likely he is a significant part of the passing game. 

With new head coach Kevin O’Connell, there is anticipation the offense will be more pass-heavy this season. Normally this would be ideal, but with all the team’s weaponry, Thielen isn’t the top option anymore and might not even be the No. 2. In other words, there will be reduced opportunity for Thielen this season, especially in the red zone, leading to fewer touchdowns. A decreased passing role and touchdown regression should combine to land him outside the top 30 in 2022.