Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Pope’s Pick 6. Twice a week I’ll be bringing you a quick look at my fantasy football thoughts in quick-hit form. Today: Rookies to avoid in fantasy in 2022.
Every year we see managers drafting rookies in redraft leagues and expecting them to become fantasy stars right away. Recent success stories like Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson have only accelerated that thought process. And sure, it happens, but many members of each year’s rookie class will be unstartable from week-to-week. These are some of the rookies you should steer clear of in redraft in 2022.
Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons
Drake London was one of the top receivers in the nation over his college career, putting up 2,153 yards and 15 touchdowns on 160 receptions in three years at USC. The lion’s share of that production came last year, as he led the Pac-12 with 1,084 yards and scored 7 touchdowns in 8 games. That helped make him the first receiver off the board in this year’s draft, landing with the Falcons with the eighth overall pick. He joins a shallow depth chart in Atlanta, with only Kyle Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson in place as established playmakers. That has led to some belief in a significant target share for London as a rookie.
But not so fast. Outside of last year, Arthur Smith’s offenses have traditionally been bottom three in pass attempts. The pass frequency increased last year with so little production out of the Atlanta backfield, but the draft pick of Tyler Allgeier shows that the team hopes to upgrade that role, along with the addition of Marcus Mariota at quarterback, who will certainly run the ball more than Matt Ryan did. That means this Falcons offense is likely to run more than it did a year ago, limited London’s opportunities. With an eighth-round ADP, I’m avoiding him in redraft.
Christian Watson, WR, Green Bay Packers
Christian Watson garnered plenty of fantasy hype after landing with the Packers in the second round of this year’s draft, the first receiver the team has taken in the first two rounds since Davante Adams in 2014. That said, there’s reason for concern. Watson put up plenty of numbers in college at North Dakota State, putting up 2,531 yards and 16 touches on 154 touches over four years. And at 6-foor-4 and 208 pounds, Watson has prototypical X receiver size. On the other hand, Watson relied on his 4.3 speed in college in routes and when the ball was in his hand, which means he’s a bit raw on the technical parts of the game, and his speed alone won’t cut it at the NFL level. Also concerning are his drops — per PFF, Watson had a 13.4% drop rate in college, and there were reports of drops being an issue at Packers minicamp this summer.
A raw receiver who struggles with his hands will likely struggle to see the field much to start his career, especially with a quarterback in Aaron Rodgers who values trust with his receivers so highly. That makes me concerned Watson’s 2022 will be more about learning the game than producing on the field — he might have the occasional boom week, but the busts will be more frequent.
Dameon Pierce, RB, Houston Texans
Dameon Pierce is one of the more polarizing rookies in fantasy football this season, in large part due to the opportunity in Houston. Pierce has a shallow depth chart to beat out with the Texans, with only Marlon Mack, Rex Burkhead, Royce Freeman and Dare Ogunbowale standing in his way. That has some fantasy drafters ignoring his lack of production in college in favor of the opportunity. But in four years at Florida, Pierce struggled to establish himself as the lead guy — he worked behind guys like La’Mical Perine until 2020, and he never topped 574 yards on the ground with the Gators. He did show some elusiveness, forced 39 missed tackles, but the workload wasn’t there.
Now heading into his rookie season, betting on him to become a workhorse back seems like a strange expectation, especially on a team that didn’t commit to a back last year, giving four different backs (Burkhead, David Johnson, Mark Ingram and Phillip Lindsay) at least 50 carries, none more than 112. And in a poor offense, this backfield only produced seven total touchdowns. A workhorse back in Houston might be interesting, but a rookie without a long history of heavy work in a committee is a tough sell as a relevant weekly fantasy option.
Jahan Dotson, WR, Washington Commanders
Jahan Dotson set the Big Ten10 on fire while at Penn State, producing 2,757 receiving yards and 25 touchdowns in his four-year college career. Within this, he displayed a great ability to separate and displayed strong hands, helping him get drafted in the first round this year. Although slightly undersized standing 5-11 and 178 pounds, he has shown an ability to play bigger than that, winning 44.1% of his contested targets. On the flip side, he landed in a low-upside offense with the Washington Commanders. There’s a clear opening in Washington behind No. 1 receiver Terry McLaurin, and Dotson has to be considered the favorite for that job, but it remains to be seen if there will be enough volume. McLaurin has topped 130 targets each of the last two years, but no other receiver has topped 62 either year, and only Adam Humphries last year topped 48. With TE Logan Thomas back from injury (especially given new QB Carson Wentz’ history with tight ends) and RB J.D. McKissic re-signed in free agency, that leaves light opportunity for Dotson in an offense that only called pass 55% of the time in 2021 (25th in the NFL).
George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
In his first two college seasons before tearing his ACL last spring, George Pickens topped 1,200 combined receiving yards at Georgia and scored 14 touchdowns. The lion’s share of that production came in his freshman season in 2019. Pickens displayed a field-stretching ability with his 4.4 speed and excellent hand-eye coordination. That landed him with the franchise with arguably the best track record in producing excellent receivers in the Steelers.
The flip side of that is Pickens’ rawness, though. He only played 24 college games in three years due to injury, only four in the 2021 season. He is going to nee some grooming to succeed at the NFL level, especially on a team that already has Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, Pat Freiermuth and Najee Harris. On top of that, the Steelers are going through a transition — they will be without Ben Roethlisberger for the first time since 2004. Mitch Trubisky or Kenny Pickett, the offense could get less efficient. That will all make it hard for Pickens to put up big numbers as a rookie.
Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals
Trey McBride was the first tight end of the board in the draft this year after a big season at Colorado State in 2021 where he posted 90 receptions for 1,121 yards and a touchdown. It was his first college season topping 600 yards — he only had 74 receptions in three years before his 2021 breakout.
Landing with the Cardinals does not promise a lot of work as a rookie for McBride. The team re-signed Zach Ertz this offseason to be the No. 1 tight end — he averaged 7.4 targets per game in 11 games for the Cardinals after last year’s midseason trade. It’s unlikely McBride supplants him, and the Cardinals also added Marquise Brown to an offense that also includes DeAndre Hopkins (after his six-game suspension), A.J. Green, Rondale Moore and James Conner. Absent at least one injury, and maybe multiple ones, there’s no room for McBride to be a fantasy producer in Year One.
