Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Welcome to Pope’s Pick 6. Twice a week I’ll be bringing you a quick look at my fantasy football thoughts in quick-hit form. Today: Players who are less valuable in dynasty than redraft right now.
When it comes to player value, we always have to take into consideration the format, like the scoring system. This is also the case when it comes to the league format, as some players are significantly more valuable in redraft opposed to dynasty and vice versa. With this in mind, here is a list of six players who have a lower value in dynasty fantasy football as opposed to redraft formats entering this season.
Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers
Aaron Jones has become one of the most consistent running backs in PPR scoring formats over the past four seasons, mostly due to his receiving ability. Over the past three years, Jones has received at least 60 targets while producing over 350 yards each year. Last season, in only 15 games, he posted career highs in receptions (52) and receiving touchdowns (6). His rushing ability should not be overshadowed either, as he has posted at least 700 yards in each of the past four years – including back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in 2018 and 2019. On the flip side, we saw the emergence of AJ Dillon last season, as he produced 803 rushing yards and 313 receiving yards for an RB23 finish in PPR scoring.
As a result of this emergence, it appears that Jones’ time may be limited as the main option out of the backfield. Dillon proved he can torment defenses on the ground and through the air, averaging more yards per play than Jones. Conversely, Jones is likely to see a huge boost this season from star wide receiver Davante Adams‘ departure as the Packers search for playmakers in the passing game. At the ripe age of 27, Jones is hovering around the dreaded running back age cliff, and with a proven talent breathing down his neck, it is possible his time is limited.
Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
When it comes to underrated fantasy producers, Keenan Allen‘s name may be at the top of the list. Coming off his fifth consecutive top-15 finish in PPR scoring, he is set up to repeat this feat in 2022. He is the top target on an offense that was third in the league last year in passing yards per game (282.4). Last season, Allen set a career-high with 106 receptions but averaged only 10.7 yards per reception, a yard less than his career average. We also saw Mike Williams finally emerge as a high-end option and the emergence of rookie Joshua Palmer – who may have earned a larger role in this offense in 2022.
The Chargers offense should be able to replicate last season’s numbers. Allen will benefit from this greatly, as he led the Chargers with a 23% target share. It seems likely Allen produces another top-15 finish in PPR scoring. However, he is now 30 years old, which is a historic age cliff for the wide receiver position when it comes to fantasy production. This makes his long-term outlook very murky. He is much more important in redraft leagues than dynasty formats.
Leonard Fournette, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Whether you refer to him as “Fat Lenny” or “ Lombardi Lenny”, Leonard Fournette became a high-end fantasy option last season after an impressive postseason push in 2019. Fournette posted an RB6 finish in PPR scoring on the back of 1,266 scrimmage yards and 10 scrimmage touchdowns (8 rushing, 2 receiving). He set career-highs in receiving yards (454) and receiving touchdowns (2). This newfound dual-threat ability, though, is being threatened by rookie Rachaad White, who displayed a great receiving ability in college. Additionally, the Buccaneers are going to be forced to send out a patchwork offensive line this year due to departures and injuries. We may see a dip in production from all Buccaneers players.
To top it off, the Buccaneers have a 45-year-old Tom Brady at the helm, who is impressively still producing at a high level. However, he already retired once in January this year for 40 days. With an impending Brady retirement and all the factors around Fournette, his future production is questionable. He still should see the majority of touches out of the backfield this season, which should lead to another high-end fantasy season in redraft formats.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys
Since entering the NFL in 2016, Zeke has finished as a top-12 fantasy running back every year – and was most recently RB2 in 2017. This consistency has been driven by his ability to stay healthy. He has only missed nine games in his career, and six of these came via a suspension. Last year, we saw his production take a dip, as he only averaged 14.8 PPR points per week (career average: 18.6 per game), but he did rack up 10 rushing touchdowns while battling a PCL injury. This was not the only reason for a dip in production, though. We saw Tony Pollard earn an increased workload. Pollard looked more explosive and produced at a higher per-play rate.
With one of the more explosive offenses in the league, there is room for both Pollard and Elliott to carve out successful roles. The Cowboys enjoy airing the ball out, yet they still lean on the run game 41% of the time in the red zone. Zeke sees the lion’s share of opportunities here, including 50% of the team’s carries in the red zone last season. This usage will continue into 2022, likely resulting in yet again another top-12 finish. However, Elliott is now 27 years old and nearing the dreaded running back cliff, making him a more valuable option in redraft than dynasty leagues.
Robert Woods, WR, Tennessee Titans
Robert Woods emerged as one of the most reliable fantasy wide receivers over the past few seasons in an explosive Rams offense. He posted three consecutive seasons of 100+ touches and 1,000+ scrimmage yards. He displayed a dual-threat ability, carrying the ball 70 times in his five seasons in Los Angeles. All of these impressive accolades resulted in three consecutive top-15 PPR scoring finishes from 2018-2020. Last season, he was on the way to another until his season abruptly ended with an ACL tear in Week 9. In the first half of the season, he posted 53 touches (45 receptions – 8 carries), 602 scrimmage yards (556 receiving – 46 rushing) and five scrimmage touchdowns (4 receiving – 1 rushing).
Entering his age-30 season, Woods is set up to be the top target in a low-volume passing offense in Tennessee. The Titans drafted a potential explosive weapon, Treylon Burks, who will likely become the focal point of the offense as the season progresses. Woods will see a significant market share this year, but his time is limited in this role. It’s likely this may be the last season that Woods is a weekly fantasy starter.
Cordarrelle Patterson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
After eight seasons stuck in fantasy purgatory, Cordarrelle Patterson broke out – finishing as RB7 in PPR scoring (232.4 points). He led the Falcons in rushing while seeing a 38% rushing share and a 12% target share, which was third on the team. As a result, he received 205 touches for 1,166 yards and 11 touchdowns – all career-highs. Unfortunately, he is already 31 years old and will likely never repeat that type of production. Additionally, he struggled down the stretch last season. The Falcons also added Damien Williams and rookie Tyler Allgeier to the backfield this offseason in hopes of improving the position.
The Falcons have voiced that they still plan to use Patterson heavily this season. However, they want to use him as a receiver more, and we may see his value drop significantly. It feels more likely that he won’t lead the team in carries this year and is replaced in the backfield next season. He’s a player to avoid in dynasty leagues moving forward.
