Patrick Mahomes 2022 Prop Bets: Passing Yards, TD Predictions

Patrick Mahomes has been so prolific to start his NFL career that the bar has been set extremely high for his 2022 season. The Kansas City Chiefs’ quarterback could have a Pro-Bowl caliber year and still finish under the total for his season-long prop bets.

Mahomes has an over/under passing yards total of 4,550.5 in the 2022 season at FanDuel Sportsbook. The prop bet for Mahomes’ passing touchdowns puts his season total at 34.5 scores at DraftKings Sportsbook. If Mahomes hits his career averages, he’ll comfortably surpass both totals. 

Since becoming the Kansas City Chiefs starting quarterback in 2018, Mahomes has averaged 4,747.8 yards and 37.8 touchdowns per season. He’s finished above his 2022 prop bet totals in three of the four seasons, including the 2021 campaign. Mahomes had 4,839 passing yards and 37 touchdowns a season ago.

Despite those impressive stats, Mahomes played his worst football since being drafted. He had a career-worst 98.5 passer rating and 13 interceptions. Mahomes’ 12-5 record was also his worst mark in the NFL. Defenses adjusted to Mahomes by playing two high safeties, and the former MVP struggled like he never had before in the NFL.

Mahomes and the Chiefs adapted in the second half of the season, winning yet another AFC West title. After playing poorly as Kansas City choked away a second-half lead in the AFC Championship Game, Mahomes has more to prove this season. 

Let’s take a look at the odds for Mahomes’ passing totals in the 2022 NFL season and the best bet for each prop.

Patrick Mahomes Prop Bets for 2022

Use the FTN Bets Prop Shop to find which sportsbook has the best odds for different player prop bets.

How Many Passing Yards Will Patrick Mahomes Have In 2022? 

Over 4,550.5 Yards (-112, FanDuel Sportsbook)

An injury is probably the only thing that will stop Mahomes from throwing for more than 4,550.5 yards. In three of his four seasons as a starter, Mahomes has finished with at least 4,740 passing yards. He only came up short in 2019 when a knee injury limited him to 4,031 yards in 14 games. Mahomes averaged 287.9 yards per game, which is a 4,894-yard pace for a 17-game season.

Yes, the loss of Tyreek Hill hurts, but Mahomes has plenty of capable targets. Travis Kelce should record a tight-end record seventh straight 1,000-yard season. The last time JuJu Smith-Schuster was healthy and playing with an above-average quarterback, he had 1,426 yards and made the Pro Bowl. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman and rookie Skyy Moore round out a capable receiving corps.

An average quarterback would put up big numbers under head coach Andy Reid and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy. When Mahomes was the backup quarterback as a rookie, Alex Smith averaged 269.5 yards per game, which is good for a 4,581-yard pace in a 17-game season. Mahomes is arguably the NFL’s best quarterback, so hitting 4,551 yards shouldn’t be too difficult if he remains healthy.

How Many Touchdown Passes Will Patrick Mahomes Throw In 2022? 

Over 34.5 TDs (-120, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Mahomes was one of the seven quarterbacks to throw for at least 35 touchdowns in 2021. He was among the six 35-plus touchdown passers in the 2020 season. Betting on Mahomes to throw for 34 touchdowns or fewer in 2022 isn’t a smart play, even if the over costs -120.

Since Mahomes became Kansas City’s starter, the Chiefs have never had more than 16 rushing touchdowns in a season. Putting the ball in Mahomes’ hands near the goal line is a more preferable option than over handing it off to Clyde Edwards-Helaire or Ronald Jones. None of Kansas City’s running backs have ever rushed for more than seven touchdowns in a year. 

Kansas City will probably find itself in a lot of high-scoring games, during which most of the team’s scores will come from Mahomes touchdown passes. Every AFC West matchup has a strong chance to be a shootout. The same goes for the Chiefs’ games against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals. 

How to Bet Patrick Mahomes Props

Player prop bets aren’t only available for individual games. Sportsbooks allow bettors to wager on player totals for the entire season.

Once you’ve set up an account with a sportsbook that operates in your state and you’ve deposited money, you’re ready to bet on player futures. In the player props section, quarterbacks are given a passing yards total, along with odds for both the over and the under.

Patrick Mahomes’ regular-season passing yards total, for example, is 4,550.5 yards. The under and the over both have -112 odds. When the odds have a minus sign, the number represents how much you would have to risk in order to make $100 for a winning bet. 

A winning $112 bet on Mahomes to throw over 4,550.5 yards would result in a profit of $100. In total, $212 should be added to your account, including a $100 profit and the $112 you originally wagered. A winning $100 bet on Mahomes’ over for passing yards would come with a $89.29 profit

Check out the FTN Bets Parlay Calculator to see how much you’d win based on the odds and amount wagered.