FTN NBA Betting Show: November 6th
Alex Christenson
Prop God
Dane Martinez
Week 2 brings the opportunity to take advantage of massive public overreactions across the NFL landscape. Despite being seven-point home favorites against the lowly Cardinals, Washington barely escaped with a 20-16 Week 1 victory. The Commanders now travel to Denver to face a Broncos defense that again should be among the league’s elite units. With two great defenses and just a 3.5-point spread, Sunday’s matchup between Denver and Washington should be a very close contest.
Wondering how to bet this game? Here is the favorite Sunday prop from our CEO, Kevin Adams!
Jahan Dotson Over 3.5 Receptions
(-115, Bet365)
Jahan Dotson gets a great Week 2 matchup against Denver cornerbacks Damarri Mathis and Essang Bassey in the slot. Dotson lined up for 58.9% of his routes inside in Week 1, and I project shutdown cornerback Pat Surtain to shadow Washington wideout Terry McLaurin on about 60% of his routes. If Dotson avoids the league’s best cover cornerback, he has a great opportunity to crest this number.
Per Adam Pfeifer’s Read-Option series, we saw Dotson move inside more in this new Commanders’ offense. During his rookie year, Dotson only lined up out of the slot 26.3% of the time. In Week 1, he caught five-of-seven targets for 49 yards and could be the focal point of the passing attack on Sunday, especially if McLaurin struggles with Surtain on the outside. The Broncos are playing more man coverage this season, illustrated last week when Mathis shadowed Las Vegas wide receiver Jakobi Meyers on 70% of his routes. Meyers dominated that matchup, catching seven passes for 68 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Mathis now faces Dotson, whose 4.4 speed should present even bigger problems for the Broncos second-year cornerback, especially around the goal line.
I absolutely love Dotson as a WR2, making me back the over on his 3.5 receptions prop. Every other major sportsbook has this juiced to the over, so I’ll gladly take the -115 at Bet365. Look for Dotson to give the Broncos secondary trouble, making his price way too cheap in DFS as well.
