NFL Usage Report for Week 16: Hot Hand Down the Stretch

For most leagues, Round 1 of the fantasy football playoffs is officially behind us. For those of us fortunate enough to be left standing, there’s still time to continue improving your roster and using data to make the right decisions.

In this week’s report, I’m looking at data specifically from Week 15 to try and understand who may have the hot hand down the stretch. To do this I evaluated a different key metric for each position group and highlighted the top 5 players in each category.

Running Back

Ordered by Rush Attempts

Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers

Does this one really need any explaining? Christian McCaffrey has always been a usage god, and we have no reason to expect that to change anytime soon – especially with Deebo Samuel sidelined due to injury. 

Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers

We liked the idea of drafting Najee Harris based on his league-winning volume, and it looks as though he may be getting that volume back. Take his 24 attempts with a grain of salt though, as that’s an awfully high number for just 53% of the team’s attempts. You’re likely starting Harris if you have him, but I wouldn’t expect 20-plus rush attempts again next week.

Zack Moss, Indianapolis Colts

We come to our first surprise of the list. With Jonathan Taylor on IR and out for the season, it’s wheels up for Zack Moss (and to an extent Deon Jackson). While Moss may not possess RB1 upside, he should get enough volume to make him a worthwhile starter within an offense that wants to run the football.

Latavius Murray, Denver Broncos

Surprise name No. 2 pops up with Latavius Murray. Somehow Murray has established himself as the lead dog in Denver, and even in an unexciting offense, his volume makes him worthy of a start if you’re in need of some help at RB/flex.

Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders

What more can be said? The RB1 on the season has been an absolute beast, and Josh Jacobs is a set-and-forget starter in your lineups, much like McCaffrey.

Wide Receiver

Ordered by Targets

K.J. Osborn, Minnesota Vikings

16 targets are nothing to look down upon, but we do need to account for context here. With Minnesota getting blown out at half time against Indianapolis, they had no choice but to sling the rock all around the field in the second half. K.J. Osborn may be establishing himself as the No. 2 receiver in this offense, but proceed with caution as two other names who will appear in this report also demand significant slices of the pie in Minnesota as well.

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings

Much like with Osborn, a lot of this number has to do with gamescript. The difference is, Justin Jefferson and Osborn are not the same, and you don’t have to think twice about placing the former in your starting lineup.

A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles

Another stud comes up next on our list. If you’re panicking about what A.J. Brown will look like with Gardner Minshew under center, stop it. Brown’s one of the most talented receivers in the game and needs to be started in all formats.

Michael Pittman, Indianapolis Colts

Another quarterback change is in the mix with Nick Foles taking over in Indianapolis. Michael Pittman isn’t the same talent level as Brown, but unless your roster is absolutely stacked elsewhere, you’re keeping him in your starting lineup, though expectations may need to be tempered somewhat.

Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins

Even with the Dolphins’ offense sputtering as of late, there’s no reason to be worried about Tyreek Hill. He’s a premier talent who you don’t need to think twice about placing in your starting lineup.

Tight End

Ordered by Targets

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs

Nothing’s changed here. Travis Kelce remains a cheat code, and we’re all jealous of the guy (or gal) in our league who has him.

Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars

Don’t look now, but Evan Engram followed up his monstrous Week 14 performance with 10 targets in Week 15. He’s becoming a key cog in a rapidly improving Jacksonville offense, and you no longer need to feel nauseous when placing him in your starting lineup.

T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings

Much like with the two Minnesota receivers, a lot of these 9 targets came due to the Vikings playing catchup essentially all game long. Still, T.J. Hockenson is a top-five-ish TE on the season in a potent Vikings’ passing attack. 

Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills

Up and down is an appropriate way to describe Dawson Knox’s 2022 season. Being tethered to Josh Allen and the Bills’ passing attack means spike weeks aren’t uncommon for Knox, but he’s also far from being a consistent starter. Knox is a fringe top 10 option at TE for the remainder of the playoffs. 

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens

Much like with Kelce, you don’t need much thought when placing Mark Andrews in your starting lineup. He’s a set-and-forget starter, even if he hasn’t quite lived up to expectations since returning from injury. 

Bonus Tip

You’ll notice I added red zone targets to the above table, but surprisingly there were only 2 targets in the red zone across all five tight ends listed. It’s unlikely any of the names above are available in your current leagues, so don’t be afraid to use FTN’s red zone target data to identify a few more names who you may actually be able to use. There are worse things to take a flier on than red zone targets if you’re in need of some last-minute help at fantasy football’s trickiest position.