NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
In this week’s usage report, I’m honing in on the 2022 rookie class by looking at Week 12 routes run data. I try to provide a variety of different data points and perspectives in this report so fantasy managers can better understand different ways to conduct their own evaluations. Routes run is a particularly interesting data point for me because even though it doesn’t directly translate to fantasy points, it’s a great measuring stick to better understand a player’s involvement in their team’s passing attack.
Below I’ve identified the six rookies with the highest percentage of routes run on their team’s passing plays this past week. What’s particularly interesting here is that every player listed was either a first- or second-round pick, which goes to show how indicative draft capital is when predicting future success.
Drake London, Atlanta Falcons (92%)
In Week 12, Drake London led all rookies by running a route on 92% of Atlanta’s dropbacks. This mark not only led the rookie class, but he was also far and away the leader on the Falcons (next closest was Olamide Zaccheaus at 76%), and he ranked tied for 15th across all players this past week – regardless of position or years of experience.
London came out of the gates hot this season with an explosive first three weeks, but he’s since cooled off and left fantasy managers wanting more. Luckily, he has the opportunity to do exactly that if he continues staying this involved in the passing game. Especially with Kyle Pitts out for the remainder of the season, even in the Falcons’ low volume passing attack, London should have plenty of opportunity to produce down the stretch. For dynasty managers, his team-leading route participation should be a welcome sign for years to come.
George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers (91%)
If trading away Chase Claypool wasn’t enough of an endorsement for George Pickens, the Steelers getting their second-round rookie involved on 91% of passing plays should be rough to convince you. Pickens has been a highlight reel on a seemingly weekly basis, and his involvement in the offense has steadily increased throughout the course of his rookie season. He’s at worst the No. 2 option in the Steelers passing attack, and it may not be long before he surpasses Diontae Johnson (94%) and establishes himself as the clear lead dog in the Steelers group of talented pass catchers.
Garrett Wilson, New York Jets (90%)
The Jets’ Garrett Wilson was on the field for 90% of the Jets’ snaps in Week 12 – far and away the leader on the team. Entering the season, it was unclear if Wilson could emerge as a lead option this early in his career, but he’s done nothing but impress since entering the NFL.
Not only did Wilson lead the Jets in routes run this past week, but he also lapped the field in targets on those routes. He saw 8 targets next week while the next closest Jet (three players tied) only had 3. Wilson is undoubtedly the No. 1 option in this passing game, and it’s possible that his ceiling will only get higher with Zach Wilson now on the sidelines.
Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers (89%)
Better late than never. Christian Watson had a slow start to his career – partially due to injury – but he’s been on an absolute rampage lately as he’s scored 6 touchdowns in his last three games. Injuries in the Packers’ receiver room has opened the door for more work for Watson, but he’s demanded an increased role even when everyone is healthy. There are still a handful of flaws in Watson’s game (most notably some bad drops), but he has the look of a No. 1 receiver and his usage in recent weeks indicate that status is here to stay.
Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints (80%)
Chris Olave has been the best fantasy producer out of the rookie wide receivers over the course of a full season, so it’s a bit surprising to see him ranked just 5th on this list. Still, Olave remains the top option in New Orleans, and he’s been extremely productive despite underwhelming quarterback play. The cost to acquire him at this point is likely too steep to provide fantastic value, but all signs indicate Olave is going to continue producing in this offense for the remainder of the season and for years to come.
Treylon Burks, Tennessee Titans (72%)
Entering the season, I considered Treylon Burks the receiver with the highest ceiling out of this entire draft class. He’s yet to come close to that ceiling in 2022, but he’s slowly but surely carving out a role as a key component in the Titans passing attack. This past week Burks trailed just Robert Woods (75%) in route participation, but both receivers finished the day with 6 targets. We’re starting to see some of the tantalizing upside that Burks’ possesses come to life, and it feels as though he’s on the verge of a late-season breakout. Buy wherever you can.
