NFL Survivor/Eliminator Picks: Week 8

It’s fun to get things right. It’s even more fun to get things right when you’re doubted. In this space a week ago, I made the Bengals (on the road in a divisional matchup) my choice for Week 7 NFL Survivor/NFL Eliminator contests, and the man charged with editing my writing, our very own Mike Randle, expressed big concern about that choice. Specifically, he called it a “crazy pick,” and questioned it with a full eight question marks.

So basically, when the Bengals finished off their win and I didn’t send Mike a “haha, told you so,” it proved that I’m a wonderful person … proof that I am now decimating by writing this in a space he literally has to read it in order to do his job of editing this writeup. Call me Stefon Diggs, because I’m never the bigger person.

Big picture, we’re up to 4-3 in this season’s NFL Survivor picks. Below, we’ll go through the process to make our pick for Week 8.

NFL Survivor Picks for Week 8

No bye weeks? C’mon, NFL, I count on those to help me winnow the field.

Thursday

London games are over, but we still have crazy Thursdays. These games get weird, a lot weirder than Sunday or Monday nights. I’m out on these games unless I feel forced.

Minnesota Vikings (@LA Rams)
Los Angeles Rams (vs. Minnesota)

They’re Too Bad

Some parts of my process haven’t worked out, but I am flatly determined to have a handful of teams each week I just refuse to pick. Some will win. This isn’t a prediction that these teams will all lose. It’s just that they’re so bad that I couldn’t confidently pick them.

Arizona Cardinals (@ Miami)
Carolina Panthers (@ Denver)
Cleveland Browns (vs. Baltimore)
Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Green Bay)
Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Kansas City)
New England Patriots (vs. NY Jets)
New Orleans Saints (@ LA Chargers)
New York Giants (@ Pittsburgh)
New York Jets (@ New England)
Tennessee Titans (@ Detroit)

That means we have 12 teams out, 20 more to dig through. Long way to go.

Tough Matchups

Last week had a schedule full of elite-vs.-elite matchups. This week isn’t so loaded in that regard, but there are several games with teams of comparable quality where I don’t feel comfortable picking one over the other:

Atlanta Falcons (@ Tampa Bay)
Buffalo Bills (@ Seattle)
Chicago Bears (@ Washington)
Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Philadelphia)
Dallas Cowboys (@ San Francisco)
Philadelphia Eagles (@ Cincinnati)
San Francisco 49ers (vs. Dallas)
Seattle Seahawks (vs. Buffalo)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Atlanta)
Washington Commanders (vs. Chicago)

Ten more gone! Now we’re down to 10 teams.

Bit-by-Bit

I don’t feel comfortable eliminating teams in broad swaths from here, so I’m going to go through teams I’m eliminating for simple reasons before we get to the ones we have to really think about.

Indianapolis Colts (@ Houston)

The Colts were on the border of the “they’re too bad” section to begin with, but … I mean, they’re 4-3 and getting healthier. So they couldn’t be there, but they certainly aren’t going to be a pick on the road over the 5-2 Texans,

Los Angeles Chargers (vs. New Orleans)

I do think the Chargers win this game (they haven’t trailed after the third quarter yet this season!), but with the Saints getting healthier (at least Chris Olave and Taysom Hill should return) and with the Chargers having an all-but-untenable offense, I can’t make them the pick here.

Miami Dolphins (vs. Arizona)

Tua Tagovailoa should be back! That’s very good! But until we see him on the field, we can’t count on this offense being anything like fixed.

The Contenders

After the elimination process, we’re down to seven teams. That’s more than I’d like to have left at this point, but at least it gives us a wide swath of candidates.

Baltimore Ravens (@ Cleveland)
Denver Broncos (vs. Carolina)
Detroit Lions (vs. Tennessee)
Green Bay Packers (@ Jacksonville)
Houston Texans (vs. Indianapolis)
Kansas City Chiefs (@ Las Vegas)
Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. NY Giants)

Some notes about these teams as we look to cull the field a bit more:

• The Ravens should beat the Browns in a walk. That said, the Browns might have some energy with the quarterback switch (can’t get worse, right?), and the injuries to Zay Flowers and Marlon Humphrey in Baltimore make them rocky. They should certainly win the game, but this isn’t the time to pick them (even if I hadn’t done so already).
• Likewise, the Broncos shouldn’t have much trouble with the Panthers, but at the same time, Bo Nix has only had a passer rating of 90 or higher in a single game. They’re 4-3 and likely to be 5-3, but you really want a team you are picking to have an offense, and … they don’t, really. There is a very distinct flip side, though: Of the seven remaining contenders above, at least five and maybe six of them are borderline elite teams (including three I have already burned in this series), while the Broncos are merely an average-to-slightly-above team that happens to have a brutal matchup, and sometimes you want to go to those to save the elite teams for later.
• Russell Wilson ended his first start strong, but let’s not forget that he was literally getting booed in the first half because of his struggles. Let’s let him play a bit more before going all in, even if this is a matchup the Steelers should win.

The Pick

Each week, you’ll get my No. 1 selection and some honorable mentions. Of the seven contenders above, three (the Ravens, Texans and Chiefs) are selections I’ve already made in this space. So I won’t select them, but you certainly can!

Denver Broncos (vs. Carolina)

As I mentioned above, this pick carries some hefty risk, casting your lot with a rookie quarterback who, while having a 4-3 record, has a 5:5 TD:INT ratio and doesn’t have a 250-yard game yet. Still, the Panthers are about as adrift as it’s possible for a team to be, 9-point dogs on the road at a mile high. We need some lesser teams if we’re going to make it 18 weeks here, so let’s take the Broncos getting to a remarkable 5-3 in Week 8.

Honorable Mention

Detroit Lions (vs. Tennessee)
Kansas City Chiefs (@ Las Vegas) — if you didn’t use them when I did

2024 Record: 4-3

Week 1: Bills (W)
Week 2: Ravens (L)
Week 3: Browns (L)
Week 4: Chiefs (W)
Week 5: Seahawks (L)
Week 6: Texans (W)
Week 7: Bengals (W)
Week 8: Broncos