NFL Splits Tool, Week 7: New Regime in Tampa

Each week I’ll be using the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to evaluate different teams, monitoring some of the most critical situations around the league.

The Splits Tool is a great way to evaluate the impact of different situations and environmental factors by comparing and contrasting historical data based on pre-game spreads/totals, locations, coaching changes, current and former teammates, etc. It’s a must-have for serious fantasy football managers and sports betters, especially when it comes to making difficult start/sit decisions or trying to gain an edge against the books.

Tampa Bay with a New O

The Buccaneers were one of the better stories of last season, winning the NFC South and advancing into the Divisional Round in their first year without Tom Brady. Baker Mayfield led the charge, putting together a career year with 4,044 yards and 28 touchdowns and signing a three-year extension to remain in Tampa this offseason. Still, entering 2024, there was some concern for the offense, and how they would function without supposed quarterback guru Dave Canales calling plays. Through six games this year, though, the offense has far exceeded expectations and has been even better with Liam Coen at the helm, currently inside the top-10 in DVOA (14.8%, ninth) and second in scoring, averaging 29.7 points per game.

Baker Mayfield, QB

Baker Mayfield has picked up right where he left off last postseason, scoring over 19 points and finishing as a top-eight quarterback in five out of the first six games. He currently leads the league in touchdown passes (15), averaging 22.7 fantasy points per game, trailing only Lamar Jackson (24.7) for the second most at the position. The touchdowns have helped bolster Mayfield’s production, but he’s also been a lot more active with his legs, rushing for over 22 yards per game (22.7).

Chris Godwin, WR

Chris Godwin has been dominant in the Liam Coen offense, moving back into the slot and getting peppered with targets, leading the team with a 25.7% target share. He’s currently the WR2 in fantasy, averaging over 20 PPR points per game (20.9), on pace for a career year. Through six weeks, Godwin has finished as a top-eight receiver in three out of six games, hitting that mark just once all of last season including the playoffs.

Mike Evans, WR

Mike Evans has taken a clear back seat to Chris Godwin, with a much lower floor than last season, failing to score double-digit fantasy points in three out of the first six games. Still, he’s averaging 14.3 PPR points per game, thanks to his sky-high ceiling, scoring over 23 PPR points three times this season. His production has dipped across the board, outside of touchdowns, currently tied for first in the NFL in receiving scores (5).