Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
We’re heading into Week 12 of the regular season. Over the offseason, I did an “NFL Splits” series, looking at historical trends to help predict the outlook of the 2022 season. I will be continuing the series during the season by using the FTN Splits Tool and looking at actionable takeaways from the previous weeks.
The Splits Tool allows me to experiment with different situations, such as active/inactive players, spreads, locations, and more, to get a better understanding of the rest of the season. Users can sign up for an FTN Fantasy subscription and gain access to all the tools needed to dominate their fantasy leagues.
Oklahoma to Arizona
Three years ago, Kyler Murray and Marquise Brown were the first quarterback and wide receiver selected in the 2019 NFL Draft. They were teammates during their collegiate days at Oklahoma and were finally reunited this offseason in Arizona. During the 2022 NFL Draft, the Cardinals traded their first-round pick to the Ravens in exchange for Hollywood and a third. A few days later, news broke that All-Pro receiver DeAndre Hopkins would be suspended for six games in the upcoming season for violating the league’s performance-enhancing drug policy.
During Nuk’s absence, Brown took over as the alpha in Arizona, ranking top-five in the NFL in receptions (43) and seventh in receiving yards (485). However, four days before Hopkins’ 2022 debut, Brown suffered a foot fracture and was placed on the IR. He’s missed the last five games but is trending toward returning in Week 12. Although we haven’t seen the two receivers together, we have a relatively equal sample of the Cardinals’ offense with Brown vs. Hopkins. In this article, I’m going to look at how both players have impacted Murray and other pass catchers through the first 11 weeks.
Kyler Murray, QB
Kyler Murray has missed the last two weeks with a hamstring injury but has a good chance of suiting up this week. He’s been a full participant in practice throughout the week, looking closer to probable rather than questionable. Murray’s injury came at an unfortunate time after he had seemingly turned a corner with DeAndre Hopkins back in the lineup. Although he was averaging fewer attempts and yards as a passer, he was much more efficient, completing a higher percentage of passes and finding the endzone twice as frequently. In Weeks 1-6, Murray had scored 25-plus fantasy points or thrown for over 300 yards one time in six games. However, since Hopkins has returned, Murray has topped 300 passing yards and scored 25-plus fantasy points in a third of his games. Brown’s return should elevate Murray’s passing production and help offset any limitations as a rusher.
Rondale Moore, WR
Rondale Moore was a popular breakout candidate this offseason, set to take over the slot role vacated by Christian Kirk. Unfortunately, days before the season officially kicked off, Moore suffered a hamstring strain and was out for the first three weeks. His season debut was disappointing, catching three of five passes for 11 yards and no touchdowns. However, in Weeks 5-6, Moore averaged 9.0 targets, 6.5 receptions, and 58.5 receiving yards in his final two games with Marquise Brown. Moore’s first game with DeAndre Hopkins generated red flags after Moore was moved to the outside and saw just two targets, catching one of them for 31 yards and zero touchdowns. His Week 7 performance turned out to be an outlier, as Moore was moved back to the slot and averaged double-digit targets (10.33), eight receptions, and 84.33 receiving yards in his next three games. In Week 11, Moore played just two snaps before exiting with a groin injury. He’s had back-to-back DNPs this week with the expectation that Moore will likely be held out through Arizona’s Week 13 bye.
Zach Ertz, TE
The Cardinals traded for three-time Pro Bowl tight end Zach Ertz in the middle of the 2021 season and re-signed him in the offseason. In the first six games without Hopkins, Ertz was an integral part of the Cardinals’ pass game, averaging 8.5 targets, 5.83 receptions and 49.83 receiving yards. However, once Hopkins returned, his production took a significant hit across the board, but he was able to find the endzone twice in four games. As has been the story for much of the Cardinal’ offense, Ertz suffered a knee injury in Week 10 and has already been ruled out for the rest of the season. Rookie tight end Trey McBride has taken over at tight end for the Cardinals. Like Ertz, McBride took a backseat to Hopkins in his first start, catching four passes for 14 yards and no touchdowns.
