MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 7/24)
Josh Gross
We’re heading into Week 11 of the regular season. Over the offseason, I did an “NFL Splits” series, looking at historical trends to help predict the outlook of the 2022 season. I will be continuing the series during the season by using the FTN Splits Tool and looking at actionable takeaways from the previous weeks.
The Splits Tool allows me to experiment with different situations, such as active/inactive players, spreads, locations, and more, to get a better understanding of the rest of the season. Users can sign up for an FTN Fantasy subscription and gain access to all the tools needed to dominate their fantasy leagues.
The New-Look Raiders
The Raiders were undefeated through the first three games of the 2021 season, marking the franchise’s best start since 2002. Things went downhill from there as the Raiders lost their next two games before three-year head coach Jon Gruden stepped down due to controversial emails sent by Gruden leaked to the public. As a result, special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia was elevated to interim head coach, filling the abrupt vacancy left by Gruden. Bisaccia won his debut as head coach and led the Raiders to a 7-5 record to end the regular season. At 10-7, the Raiders snuck into the playoffs ending a 14-year drought. Their season came to an end in the Wild Card Round, falling 19-26 to the Bengals.
Despite exceeding expectations, the Raiders let Bisaccia go and hired Patriots’ offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels as their new head coach this offseason. They continued to add to the roster, most notably acquiring All-Pro wide receiver Davante Adams from the Packers, reuniting him with his college quarterback, Derek Carr. For a team coming off its second postseason appearance since 2002, it was clear that McDaniels and company were all in this upcoming season ready to win now. Unfortunately, things have not gone as planned for Las Vegas, who hold the second-worst record in the league at 2-7. In this article, I’m going to look at what went wrong with the Raiders and how Adams’ addition to the team has impacted the passing offense in Las Vegas.
Derek Carr, QB
Derek Carr had a career year in 2021, setting a personal best in completions (428), pass attempts (626), and passing yards (4,804). He was one of the most resilient quarterbacks in the league, leading his team to six walkoff victories. Although it looked like bringing in Davante Adams would only improve Carr’s numbers, this has not been the case. Carr’s passing numbers have taken a significant hit from last season but have slightly increased in the touchdown department. Through nine games, Carr has thrown for 13 touchdowns, and Adams has accounted for 8 of them (61.54%). After throwing for 250-plus yards in each of the first three games, Carr has only eclipsed that mark once in his last six games.
Hunter Renfrow, WR
The Raiders’ 2019 fifth-round pick out of Clemson, Hunter Renfrow, broke out last season, setting career highs in targets (128), receptions (103), receiving yards (1,038) and touchdowns (9). With tight end Darren Waller dealing with injuries, in and out of the lineup, Renfrow slotted in as the No. 1 option in Las Vegas and played his way to a two-year, $32 million extension. There was optimism about Renfrow playing the slot role in Josh McDaniels’ offenses, who have historically put-up big numbers in New England. However, with Davante Adams in the fold, Renfrow has been a non-factor without a single game over 60 receiving yards. Like last season, Renfrow has played a third of his games without Waller but is only averaging 3.5 receptions, 32 yards and 0 touchdowns. Last week, Renfrow was placed on the injured reserve list with an oblique injury and ruled out for at least three more games.
Darren Waller, TE
Entering 2021, Darren Waller was solidified as one of the few elite players at the tight end position after back-to-back seasons with 90-plus catches and 1,145-plus receiving yards. Although he struggled to stay on the field last season, Waller was a focal point of the Raiders’ air raid, leading the team in targets per game (8.75) and receiving yards (61.75). After signing a three-year, $51 million contract extension this offseason, injuries have continued to hamper Waller, who has missed five of Las Vegas’s nine games. Even while active, Waller’s targets, receptions, and receiving yards declined drastically playing alongside Davante Adams. Like Renfrow, Waller was also placed on the injured reserve list in Week 10 and will be out for the next three games at the minimum.
