Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
With not much left in the way of big offseason events that will change teams’ futures, our eyes can truly turn toward the season to come, preparing for fantasy football drafts and looking forward to what we need to know for success in 2022. With that in mind, all summer long, I’ll be using our FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to look at some of the key situations to know for the season. The Splits Tool allows you to experiment with situations with active/inactive players, spreads, locations, and more to help you get a picture of everything you need for your fantasy football season. Sign up for an FTN Fantasy subscription now to experiment with the tool as you prepare for your season.
The Injury Bug
It wasn’t long ago that the Baltimore Ravens boasted a league-best 14-2 regular season in Lamar Jackson‘s first full season as a starter. Jackson set the league on fire, breaking the single-season rushing record for a quarterback (1,206) and leading the league in passing touchdowns (36). He joined Tom Brady as the second ever unanimous MVP. The Ravens’ offense imposed their will on the ground, rushing for a total of 3,296 yards, most ever in a 16-game season. The Ravens weren’t the same juggernaut in 2020 but led the league in rushing yards (3,071) for a second consecutive season. They captured their first playoff victory in the Jackson era before getting knocked off by the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round.
Expectations were set high in Baltimore heading into 2021. Jackson was entering his fourth season in the NFL with his eyes fixed on the Super Bowl. Unfortunately, the Ravens’ season got off to a rocky start when second-year running back J.K. Dobbins tore his ACL in the final preseason game against Washington. The next men up, Gus Edwards and Justice Hill, also suffered season-ending injuries in the preseason. Things only got worse for the Ravens’ when first-round pick Rashod Bateman picked up a groin injury in practice. He required surgery that would sideline him for the early part of the season. Despite the multitude of injuries, the Ravens fought with all they had left and remained competitive for most of the season. However, their playoff aspirations were all but over once Jackson went down with a season-ending ankle injury in Week 13. The Ravens’ offense was forced to make adjustments without their All-Pro quarterback under center.
Today, I’ll be looking at the fantasy impact of Jackson’s absence.
The Ravens’ Offense
Prior to last season, the Ravens won at least 10 games and made the playoffs three years in a row. 2021 was the first time they missed the postseason since Jackson was drafted in 2018. After leading the league in rushing attempts and yards in back-to-back seasons, the Ravens’ offense deployed a much more balanced attack. They had the ninth-most passing attempts, averaging over 35 pass attempts per game, even when Jackson was sidelined. Jackson appeared in 12 games before missing the final five games with a season-ending ankle injury. The Ravens’ offense took a significant step back without Jackson but averaged more fantasy points in the games he missed. It’s safe to assume the past season was an outlier, plagued by injuries. The Ravens’ will likely return to the ground game once Dobbins and Edwards make a full recovery at the start of next season. Jackson is in line for a bounceback season and is a top-five quarterback in our FTN Fantasy rankings.
Mark Andrews, TE
A new king was crowned at the tight end position. After years of dominance from Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews finally surpassed Kelce as the TE1 in 2021. Andrews caught a career-high 107 passes and 1,361 yards to go along with nine scores. Andrews was essentially QB proof, finding a way to produce no matter who was under center. Per Andrews’ splits with and without Jackson, he was actually better for fantasy in the games Jackson missed. Andrews averaged 101.6 receiving yards on 11 targets in the five games Jackson was sidelined. Andrews may not see the same success next season, assuming Jackson stays healthy, but he should be viewed as a top-two TE in all formats. The Ravens may not be as pass-heavy next season, but Andrews should still lead the team in targets.
Marquise Brown, WR
After a strong finish to his sophomore season, Marquise Brown hit the ground running in 2021. He was the WR5 for the first nine weeks of the season, finally stepping up as the alpha in the Ravens’ receiving room. He set a career-high in receptions (91) and receiving yards (1,008) to go along with six receiving touchdowns. It was the first time a Ravens’ wide receiver went over 1,000 receiving yards since Mike Wallace in 2016. Brown’s production fell off a cliff once Jackson went down. Although he did receive more targets, his receiving yards dropped 36.67 per game. Bateman’s return also seemed to hurt Brown, especially in the touchdown department. After scoring five touchdowns in the first five weeks, Brown only had one touchdown with Bateman on the field. Despite having a breakout season, reports indicated that Brown was unhappy with his current situation in Baltimore. As a result, the Ravens traded Brown to the Arizona Cardinals, leaving a large void to fill.
Brown will now be paired with Kyler Murray in Arizona, functioning as the Cardinals’ No. 1 at least until DeAndre Hopkins returns from suspension.
Rashod Bateman, WR
Rashod Bateman had a less-than-ideal start to his rookie season. After being selected in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft, Bateman missed the season’s first five games with a groin injury. He only played seven games with Jackson, averaging 53.57 yards on 4.14 receptions within that stretch. While the box score doesn’t jump out, Bateman was significantly worse in the games Jackson missed. Bateman is poised for a breakout in his second season following the departure of Brown. The Ravens’ also lost Sammy Watkins and have done nothing to address the wide receiver core. Bateman will enter the 2022 season as the undisputed WR1 in Baltimore. Check out the bold case for Bateman in Jeremy Popielarz’ piece on second-year breakouts for 2022.
