Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
With not much left in the way of big offseason events that will change teams’ futures, our eyes can truly turn toward the season to come, preparing for fantasy football drafts and looking forward to what we need to know for success in 2022. With that in mind, all summer long, I’ll be using our FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to look at some of the key situations to know for the season. The Splits Tool allows you to experiment with situations with active/inactive players, spreads, locations, and more to help you get a picture of everything you need for your fantasy football season. Sign up for an FTN Fantasy subscription now to experiment with the tool as you prepare for your season.
The New-Look Jets
After an abysmal 2-14 2020 season, the New York Jets parted ways with Adam Gase and replaced him with former San Francisco 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh. It was time for a full-blown reset in New York, starting with the 2021 NFL Draft. In the weeks leading up to the draft, the Jets traded former 2018 first-round pick Sam Darnold, to the Carolina Panthers, in exchange for three future draft picks. They went on to select quarterback Zach Wilson with the second overall pick, hoping to breathe new life into the franchise. Wilson headlined a Jets team that bolstered the youngest roster in the league, with an average age of 21.5. Like many rookies, Wilson struggled to adjust to the next level. Perhaps the most concerning part of the 2021 season was the success of the Jets’ offense without Wilson. In this article, I will be looking at how the Jets fared with and without Wilson under center.
New York Jets Offense
Although the Jets doubled their win total from 2020, they posted their sixth consecutive losing season, winning just four of 17 games. It was the 11th straight year the Jets would miss the postseason. Wilson took six sacks in his first career start and threw an interception in a loss to Sam Darnold and the Panthers. Things only got worse for the rookie quarterback, who threw six interceptions and zero touchdowns in his next two games. Wilson was finally able to turn things around in Week 4 against the Tennessee Titans. He threw for 297 yards and two touchdowns in a thrilling overtime victory. Unfortunately, Wilson suffered a PCL injury in Week 7 that would sideline him for the next four weeks. During Wilson’s absence, the Jets’ offense improved significantly. The team averaged 160.67 more passing yards on 14.75 more pass attempts and scored 1.15 more touchdowns in Weeks 8-11.
Elijah Moore, WR
The Jets selected Ole Miss wide receiver Elijah Moore with their second-round draft pick to pair with their new franchise quarterback. Moore got off to a slow start in his rookie season, catching 15 passes on 32 targets and 146 receiving yards over his first six games. Following the Jets’ Week 6 bye, however, Moore became much more involved in the offense and had some of his biggest games in the four-game stretch without Wilson. In the games Wilson missed, Moore’s receiving production increased across the board, and he was a WR1 in fantasy. Moore was a beneficiary of the increase in pass attempts by the Jets offense without Wilson and served as the No. 1 pass catcher. His season was cut short due to a quad injury, but his strong finish to the season has him poised for a second-year breakout.
You can check out where Moore is ranked on the FTN rankings page.
Corey Davis, WR
After being selected as a top-five pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, Corey Davis experienced a fourth-year breakout in his final season with the Tennessee Titans. In 14 games, he caught 65 of his 92 targets for 984 yards and five touchdowns. After a career season, Davis signed with the Jets on a three-year $37.5 million contract. Davis only appeared in nine games after being placed on IR with a groin injury but made his presence felt on the field. He recorded three games with over 90 receiving yards that all came with Wilson under center. Although it’s a small sample size, Davis still saw more targets, receptions and yards in the two games he played without Wilson. Davis will have much tougher target competition next season with the emergence of Moore and the Jets’ 2022 first-round draft pick, Garrett Wilson. He is worth taking shots on in the later rounds of fantasy drafts.
Michael Carter, RB
The Jets added to the youth movement by selecting running back Michael Carter in the fourth round of the 2021 NFL Draft. Carter split backfield touches with Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams at North Carolina and found himself in a similar split in the Jets offense. Carter missed three games dealing with an ankle injury and a concussion but still put together a solid rookie season. In 14 games, Carter gained 964 scrimmage yards with four touchdowns and 36 catches on 183 touches. Carter was difficult to trust weekly but saw a massive increase in production in the four games without Wilson. The most significant discrepancy was his utilization in the receiving game. Without Wilson, Carter averaged 1.9 more receptions on 2.8 more targets and 29.45 more receiving yards. Carter’s fantasy stock took a major hit after the Jets spent second-round draft capital on Iowa State running back Breece Hall.
You can check out where Hall is ranked among the rookie class in the FTN Dynasty Rookie rankings.
