NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
With not much left in the way of big offseason events that will change teams’ futures, our eyes can truly turn toward the season to come, preparing for fantasy football drafts and looking forward to what we need to know for success in 2022.
With that in mind, all summer long, I’ll be using our FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to look at some of the key situations to know for the season. The Splits Tool allows you to experiment with situations with active/inactive players, spreads, locations, and more to help you get a picture of everything you need for your fantasy football season. Sign up for an FTN Fantasy subscription now to experiment with the tool as you prepare for your season.
Russell Wilson Trade
In 2021, the Seattle Seahawks had their first losing season in the Russell Wilson era, dating back to 2012. After a decade of dominance, Wilson’s tenure in Seattle ended when the Seahawks sent the All-Pro quarterback to Denver in exchange for Drew Lock, Noah Fant, Shelby Harris and five draft picks. The Seahawks will enter the 2022 season with a new quarterback under center for the first time since 2012. Wilson had been the tide that lifts all boats for years, sustaining multiple fantasy-relevant players. Wilson’s departure from Seattle hurts the offense and significantly impacts fantasy.
Seahawks Offense
The Seahawks were 2-3 in the five games Wilson started before injuring his finger last year. That injury caused Wilson to miss games for the first time in his career. Despite the losing record, Wilson was playing at an elite level. He was the second highest-graded quarterback per PFF, leading an offense that ranked inside the top-10 in EPA per play. Once Wilson went down, veteran Geno Smith stepped in for a three-game stretch. Without Wilson, the Seahawks leaned much heavier on the run game, taking the air out of the ball as much as possible. As a result, the passing numbers took a hit, but the rushing production increased. Based on the team’s offseason moves, it seems likely head coach Pete Carroll will look to establish the run next season. After re-signing Rashaad Penny to a one-year, $5.75 million deal, the Seahawks drafted former Michigan State running back Ken Walker in the second round of this year’s NFL Draft. Both running backs should see ample volume in Seattle’s ground and pound offense but are unlikely to receive the high-value touches. In 2021, the Seahawks’ finished dead last in both plays (5.61) and pass attempts (29.1) per game, which may be more of the same in 2022.
DK Metcalf, WR
At age 24, DK Metcalf is at a pivotal point in his career, heading into a contract year. He is coming off back-to-back seasons with double-digit touchdowns, finishing both years inside the top-12 fantasy wide receivers. Last season, Metcalf totaled 14 receptions for 197 yards and three touchdowns on 18 targets in the three games without Wilson. Metcalf’s production was actually better when Wilson was out of the lineup. He averaged more receptions, yards and touchdowns in the games started by Smith. The only area he suffered in was targets, primarily because the team’s pass volume was down overall. Although losing Wilson is still a downgrade, Metcalf has shown the ability to produce with multiple signal callers and low usage. His combination of size, speed and athleticism creates a mismatch on the field, maybe enough to overcome shoddy quarterback play. After being selected as early as the second round before the Wilson trade, Metcalf now comes at a discounted cost. Our FTN Fantasy rankings still have Metcalf as a top-20 wide receiver heading into the 2022 season. Drafting Metcalf is a bet on talent, not situation.
Tyler Lockett, WR
Tyler Lockett was arguably the biggest loser of the Russell Wilson trade. He has spent seven seasons in the NFL and only played three games without Wilson, all came last season. Since taking over the starting job in 2018, Lockett has been spectacular, finishing as the PPR WR16 or higher in the previous four seasons. Lockett has benefited from playing alongside one of the league’s best downfield passers. Since entering the league, Wilson has led the NFL in completions (298), yards (10,159) and touchdowns (105) on passes thrown 20 or more yards. Lockett has been Wilson’s go-to deep threat, and last season was no different. Lockett had 819 receiving yards on passes thrown 15 or more yards downfield, trailing only Cooper Kupp. Surprisingly, Lockett’s splits look better in games without Wilson. He receives a boost in just about every receiving metric aside from targets. This data is somewhat deceiving as most of Lockett’s production came in one game. In Week 8, Lockett had a monster game, catching 12 passes for 142 yards on 13 targets. In the previous two games with Smith at the helm, Lockett had a combined four receptions and 47 yards. The boom/bust nature has always been a part of Lockett’s profile. However, the spike weeks will be less frequent without Wilson commanding the offense.
To make matters worse, Lockett will turn 30 in September, which is typically when we see a dropoff in production — over-30 receivers and running backs as a group have seen their production absolutely plummet in recent seasons.
Noah Fant, TE
After hiring former Rams passing-game coordinator Shane Waldron last season, the Seahawks brought in another former Ram, Gerald Everett, on a one-year, $6 million deal. Everett had been largely a non-factor in his four seasons in LA, splitting snaps with Tyler Higbee. With less target competition and better quarterback play in 2021, Everett posted career highs in receptions (48), yards (478) and touchdowns (4). His production took a significant dip across the board in the games without Wilson — he was essentially useless and unplayable in fantasy.
Everett left as a free agent this offseason, but in the package that sent Wilson to Denver, the Seahawks received the QB-TE pairing of Drew Lock and Noah Fant. With Lock as the favorite to emerge as the Week 1 starter, there is some reason for optimism surrounding Fant. He finished last season as a top-12 tight end, catching 68 passes for 670 yards and four touchdowns. As a familiar face for Lock, another TE1 finish is well within the range of outcomes for Fant. He has the opportunity to become the first Seahawks’ tight end to finish inside the top 12 at the position since Jimmy Graham in 2017.
