Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
With NFL training camp in full swing, I’ll be using our FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to look at some of the key situations to monitor throughout the offseason.
The splits tool is a great way to dissect how certain environments and situations impact different players or teams based on spreads, locations, coaches, current or former teammates, etc. It’s a must-have for serious fantasy football managers and sports betters, especially when it comes to making difficult start/sit decisions or trying to gain an edge against the books.
Brandon Aiyuk Trade?
49ers’ All-Pro WR Brandon Aiyuk has been disgruntled about his contract situation since the start of the offseason, entering the final year of his rookie deal and officially requesting a trade after unsuccessful talks of an extension, following a breakout 2023 campaign. Aiyuk set career highs across the board, leading San Francisco in every receiving category, catching 75 passes on 105 targets for 1,342 yards and seven touchdowns. He was the favorite of Brock Purdy, seeing a 25% target share in 15 regular season games with the second-year quarterback, averaging 15.3 full-PPR points and 13.1 half-PPR points during that span. There weren’t many receivers as efficient as Aiyuk last season, who led the NFL in yards per target (12.8), trailing only George Pickens in yards per reception (17.9). He was also one of just three players with a three-plus yards per route run rate (3.06), posting the seventh-highest mark over the last decade. The production matched the film, grading out first or second in ESPN (No. 1) and PFF (No. 2) receiving grade, scoring in the 91st percentile or higher in Matt Harmon’s “Reception Perception” success rate vs. man (78.6%, 96th percentile), zone (85.4%, 91st), and press (83.6%, 97th) coverage.
For a team that’s going all in, still in their Super Bowl window, the most likely scenario is that the 49ers keep Aiyuk for at least one more season, with the option to use the franchise tag in 2025. With that said, on the off chance that Aiyuk is traded, the move would create a major shake-up in fantasy drafts, leaving a significant void to fill in San Francisco.
Brock Purdy, QB
2022’s Mr. Irrelevant, Brock Purdy showed he was more than just a flash in the pan as a rookie, leading the 49ers to a 12-4 record as the starter, to go along with a second consecutive NFC West title and a Super Bowl appearance. He played at an MVP level and nearly won the award, finishing fifth in the NFL in passing yards (4,280) and third in passing touchdowns (31), leading the NFL in quarterback rating. There’s no denying that Kyle Shanahan’s QB-friendly system, paired with an elite supporting cast, helped bolster Purdy’s efficiency. However, it’s hard to overlook what the second-year signal caller accomplished in his first full season as a starter, finishing first among all players with 300-plus dropbacks in passer rating (113.0), yards per attempt (9.6), EPA per dropback (+0.338), and completion percentage over expectation (+5.4%). No one was better than Purdy on the deep ball, earning a league-high 99.9 PFF grade on passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield. Brandon Aiyuk was the primary beneficiary of the long ball,
leading San Francisco with 14.54-yard aDOT and 37% air-yard share in 15 regular season games with Purdy. Surprisingly, Purdy had one of his better games of the season in his lone start without Aiyuk, scoring over 20 fantasy points in Week 3 (20.30), completing 25 out of 37 passes (65.57% completion rate) for 310 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions.
Although there’s no dropoff in the raw box score, the underlying numbers tell a different story. Purdy was a lot more inclined to check down without his No. 1 downfield threat, averaging 8.4 yards per attempt vs. 9.6 yards on the season. It’s also worth noting that his opponent, the New York Giants didn’t offer much resistance, ranked bottom three in DVOA as a team (-28.5, 30th) and 21st on defense (3.0%).
Deebo Samuel, WR
Deebo Samuel was rumored to be a trade candidate earlier this offseason, and reportedly almost moved on draft day after the 49ers selected wide receiver Ricky Pearsall with their first first-round pick since Trey Lance in 2021. Entering training camp, Samuel looks to be a lock to stay on the roster coming off a strong 2023 campaign. He scored a career-high seven receiving touchdowns, tied for first on the team, totaling 60 receptions for 892 yards in 15 games. He also handled 37 carries as a rusher, posting 225 yards and five touchdowns on the ground, averaging 6.1 yards per attempt with a career-best 67.6% success rate. Samuel missed almost three games with a hairline shoulder fracture in the regular season, playing just nine snaps in the Divisional Round before suffering a stinger on the same shoulder against the Packers. Although he returned the following week, injuries have been the story of Samuel’s five-year career, playing through an entire season just once. With that said Samuel has been dominant when healthy, regardless of whoever is behind center, possessing an irreplaceable skill set unlike anyone else in the league. In Weeks 1-17, when logging double-digit snaps, Samuel saw almost nine opportunities per game (8.9), averaging over 15 yards on the ground (15.7) and 66 yards through the air, scoring 12 combined rushing and receiving touchdowns in 13 games.
His 17.9 full-PPR/15.8 half-PPR points per game during that span was just behind Justin Jefferson (20.2 full-PPR/16.8 half-PPR points) for the second most among all wide receivers in 2023. As great as Samuel was with a full complement of snaps, both his usage and production skyrocketed in the lone game without Brandon Aiyuk, seeing double-digit targets for just the second time in the regular season, catching six of 12 passes for 129 yards and a touchdown, finishing with 25.1 full-PPR points and 22.1 half-PPR on the day.
He led the team with a 33% target share without Aiyuk in Week 3, playing more as a traditional wideout, and handling just one carry out of the backfield. Samuel also saw a lot more looks downfield, posting a season-high 45% air-yard share in Week 3 vs. 18% on the season. Even removing the games Samuel was limited or exited early, he still only topped a 29% air-yard share just once time with Aiyuk active in the regular season. We only have a one-game sample of Samuel playing alongside Brock Purdy and without Aiyuk, but on a per-route basis, his numbers have been outlandish when operating as the clear alpha receiver.
George Kittle, TE
George Kittle showed no signs of slowing down in his age-30 season, posting his first 1,000-yard campaign since 2019, leading all tight ends in yards per route run (2.22) and receiving yards (1,020). He finished just behind Brandon Aiyuk for second on the team in receptions and receiving yards, finally putting together a healthy season, catching 65 of 90 passes for 1,020 yards and six touchdowns in 16 games. With Brock Purdy under center, Kittle saw a lot more looks downfield, posting a career-high 15.7 yards per reception, leading the position in 2023. Despite ending the season as a top-five tight end in both full-PPR and half-PPR formats, it was hard to rely on Kittle for consistent production, finishing as the TE20 or worse in seven out of 16 games (43.8%). His scoring was a lot more predictable with Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel out of the lineup, finishing as a top-five tight end in two out of three games without either one of the receivers, never falling below eighth at position. He saw nearly double-digit targets with a 27% target share in his lone game without Aiuyuk, catching seven of nine passes for 90 yards.
Like Samuel, Kittle saw a season-high 41% air yard share in Week 3 vs. 24% on the season, never once hitting the 40% mark in 19 games alongside Aiyuk including the playoffs.
