Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Every week of the NFL season, we at FTN will be writing up our favorite same-game parlays for the Thursday and Monday night football games, as well as for the Sunday slate. We will also be posting them in the NFL Bet Tracker, so if you want to bet them with us, head over to where you can find all of the FTNBets’ team’s picks.
NFL Same Game Parlay of the Day: Week 8 Thursday Slate
The Thursday Night Football game this week is a very interesting one between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Baltimore Ravens. Tom Brady and the Bucs just put up massive yardage against the Panthers, but every drive fizzled out before they reached the end zone. I do not think anyone expected the Panthers to win that game, and certainly no one expected them to win by three scores and keep the Bucs out of the end zone. Brady still threw for 290 yards in that game, and it would have been more if Mike Evans hadn’t dropped a sure bomb for a touchdown when he had a few yards on the nearest defender. Baltimore has allowed a few big games to good passing attacks already this year, so you know where this same-game parlay of the day is going to lean.
DraftKings Same Game Parlay
Tom Brady Over 304.5 Passing Yards
Tom Brady 2+ Touchdown Passes
Total Points Over 45.5
Chris Godwin Anytime Touchdown
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are not a great football team in 2022. That is not hyperbole, it’s fact. They are still near the top of the league for QB play, receiving options and pass block on the offensive line. They are well below average this year in running the ball and also stopping the run. So why do I like them so much for Thursday? That’s easy, it’s because they are no longer elite. Tampa is not going to keep pounding the run with minimal success. They have one of the best WR duos in the league with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. They also have a rash of injuries that is going to shrink that target tree for Brady. Russell Gage and Julio Jones are both unlikely to play. Cameron Brate missed practice and will likely miss another game too. That leaves Godwin, Evans, rookie TE Cade Otton, Scott Miller and running backs Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White. Otton has been a legit receiving threat every game Brate has been out, Evans is one of the game’s best deep threats, and Godwin is a target hog, seeing another 13 last week. The path to victory for the Bucs is not playing these 21-17 games. The path to victory for them is a passing onslaught.
The first two weeks of the season, the running game carried the offense with multiple injuries to the pass catchers. They had injuries in Week 3 but needed to pass playing from behind. From Week 3 on — a five-game span — Brady has tossed it 40-plus times in each game, averaging over 300 yards passing during this run. The touchdowns have been lacking a bit, but the regression to the mean works both ways. Brady only has one game this season with more than one touchdown pass and I think that changes going forward. The Panthers loss was a slap in the face and hopefully a wake=up call to the Bucs. I’m not big on narratives, but “pissed-off Tom Brady” is a thing to consider. Tampa looked at the tape. They know the passing game has been producing yards that the running game has not. They are very likely to lean on Brady here and go to the air, which means the stats should follow.
In three home games this year, Brady has thrown for 271, 385 and 351 yards. He’s had at least one TD pass in each. Godwin has been the high-volume target we expected him to be now that he is healthy. In the last four games he’s averaged 6.5 catches on over 10 targets for 60 yards. He has yet to find the end zone, and that regression also needs to come up to the mean soon too. If Brady has a big game, Godwin will likely be one of the reasons for it, and if that happens, they are going to go well over this 45-point total. The way to think about same-game parlays is build a ticket based off what has to happen to capitalize on your main idea. My main idea here is that the Bucs are going to let Brady sling it 45-50 times in order to try and grab a win. If they do, all of the dominoes we just discussed should fall into place to get us a nice payday.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
A same game parlay is a bet that links multiple outcomes together that all come from the same event. Every NFL game has hundreds of different bet types. Sports books will offer bets on the spread, on the total, on who will score a touchdown, how many yards certain players will have, and many more events. A bettor has the ability to make a straight bet on each of these markets individually. If a bettor decides he wants to get a bigger payout by linking multiple outcomes together, that is what a same game parlay is for.
Why Bet Same Game Parlays
Same-game parlays offer a unique opportunity. Most parlays are -EV because you are trying to build up odds through uncorrelated events. When you put three teams in a parlay and it pays out at +595, you are getting the implied probability of 14.39%. There is not much value there — if you hit bets at a 52% clip, a three-team parlay at -110 odds has the implied probability of 14%. You are making a bad bet as the implied probability of you hitting the bet is less than the odds you are receiving.
Same-game parlays are different — you get an opportunity to add multiple events that increase your odds, and they are correlated. Same-game parlays are very similar to DFS game theory — you are telling yourself a story for how the game plays out and when you are right you win in a big way. Think Tom Brady has a huge game and throws for multiple touchdowns and over 300 yards? Well, he is going to have to take some receivers with him. Now the Buccaneers are putting pressure on the other team and they will have to respond by airing it out. Picking a receiver on the other team to run it back can give you serious odds and a big pay out. The reason to bet on the same-game parlays is because, when you are right, it pays off big. But it is very important when building them you aren’t trying to tell two different stories.
