Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The same game parlay for Week 8 of NFL action is one where I think we have value on every leg. The hardest thing for a sportsbook to do is price events they have little information on. The 2022 Carolina Panthers are the perfect example. This offense was built around Christian McCaffrey, who is no longer with the team. The only data the books have in the post-McCaffrey era is one week. Carolina actually won that game, which creates another problem. That game featured a gamescript no one expects to see Carolina in often, with a running back who is now hurt taking most of the meaningful first-half snaps.
Models are only as good as the inputs you use to build them. If you have a large sample of games, you can make better predictions with all that information. When the number of games a team has played without a player or with a player in a new role is limited, it is much tougher to accurately predict how that player will do. That leads to some inefficiencies in pricing and that is what we are looking to take advantage of for our Week 8 NFL same game parlay pick.
DraftKings NFL Week 8 Same Game Parlay
D’Onta Foreman Anytime Touchdown
D’Onta Foreman Over 69.5 Rushing Yards
Kyle Pitts Under 39.5 Receiving Yards
I am going to the Carolina Panthers/Atlanta Falcons game for this week’s parlay. It is not the most exciting game of the weekend, but it is one of the more predictable. Both teams are going to run the ball as often as they can. Both teams are stronger on the ground than they are through the air. Both teams are in the bottom five of the league in most major passing categories. Carolina has gained the fifth-fewest passing yards and attempted the sixth-fewest passes. Atlanta is the third worst in terms of passing yards and has only attempted more passes per game than the Chicago Bears. The lack of production and attempts is what lead me to both of the players in the same game parlay for this week.
D’Onta Foreman was not having a busy day until Chuba Hubbard went out with an injury. After that, he was relied upon heavily to carry the rushing load for the Panthers. He started out as the Panthers’ No. 3 RB, which means with McCaffrey gone and Hubbard out, the only other RB is Raheem Blackshear, a guy they scooped off the Buffalo Bills practice squad who only has the two carries for -5 yards from last week’s game on his stat sheet. Hubbard is going to see volume in this game, and he is coming off 15 carries for 118 yards in the last contest. Foreman could see more carries here with Hubbard out. We are only looking for him to get 70 yards here. He is also going to be the short-yardage guy here, so the touchdown on anything close is likely his to get.
On the flip side of this game, I still do not think people have adjusted expectations enough for Kyle Pitts. Pitts is very talented and coming off a 1,000-yard receiving season as a rookie TE. The problem here is volume. The Falcons attempt the second-fewest passes per game this year, and that is just not enough attempts to get anywhere near his 2021 numbers. Pitts has had one good game all season, when he went 5/87 against Seattle in Week 3. He has yet to top 25 yards in any other game this season. He sees five targets per game on average and only catches about half of those passes thrown his way. You cannot argue against his talent, but he would have to catch a 30-yard pass or longer to get an over at this level of inclusion in the passing game. It might seem risky to bet against talent, but when talent is not getting opportunities, it has been profitable to doubt that it will change. Pitts has paid off the under in five of his six games this season. At the very least, this number should be 5-8 yards lower than it is.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
A same game parlay is a bet that links multiple outcomes together that all come from the same event. Every NFL game has hundreds of different bet types. Sports books will offer bets on the spread, on the total, on who will score a touchdown, how many yards certain players will have, and many more events. A bettor has the ability to make a straight bet on each of these markets individually. If a bettor decides he wants to get a bigger payout by linking multiple outcomes together, that is what a same game parlay is for.
Why Bet Same Game Parlays
Same-game parlays offer a unique opportunity. Most parlays are -EV because you are trying to build up odds through uncorrelated events. When you put three teams in a parlay and it pays out at +595, you are getting the implied probability of 14.39%. There is not much value there — if you hit bets at a 52% clip, a three-team parlay at -110 odds has the implied probability of 14%. You are making a bad bet as the implied probability of you hitting the bet is less than the odds you are receiving.
Same-game parlays are different — you get an opportunity to add multiple events that increase your odds, and they are correlated. Same-game parlays are very similar to DFS game theory — you are telling yourself a story for how the game plays out and when you are right you win in a big way. Think Tom Brady has a huge game and throws for multiple touchdowns and over 300 yards? Well, he is going to have to take some receivers with him. Now the Buccaneers are putting pressure on the other team and they will have to respond by airing it out. Picking a receiver on the other team to run it back can give you serious odds and a big pay out. The reason to bet on the same-game parlays is because, when you are right, it pays off big. But it is very important when building them you aren’t trying to tell two different stories.
