Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The same game parlay for Week 7 of NFL action is one that requires you to have some intestinal fortitude. At first glance it may seem ugly, but the value is definitely there.
The game we will be targeting is the Carolina Panthers taking on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa is a massive favorite. They are up to -13 after the Panthers traded away their top offensive weapon in Christian McCaffrey Thursday night. This is a good time to make a random Mike Davis reference — Davis was McCaffrey’s backup a few years ago and filled in admirably when CMC was injured. I’m not expecting Chuba Hubbard and D’Onta Foreman to become fantasy studs here, but the running back position is one of the most easily replaceable. Even a stud like CMC is not worth more than a point or two on the spread. By no means do I think the replacements are the same caliber, but I also do not think the adjustments needed to be this big. Here’s how I am looking to take advantage of the value.
DraftKings NFL Week 7 Same Game Parlay
Leonard Fournette Anytime Touchdown
D’Onta Foreman Anytime touchdown
Panthers +13
Our NFL betting model shows value on the Panthers side of this game at that +13 spread. It is one of the biggest edges in the model this week at over 15% from our projected number. Tampa plays slow and has struggled to score this year, which means if the Panthers offense can muster anything here, it will be tough for Tampa to win by multiple touchdowns going away.
With that said, Tampa should win this game, and they should be able to do it without having to open up the offense and take a lot of chances. That means we are in for a run-heavy gamescript with Leonard Fournette seeing a lot of action. Fournette is also a gamescript-agnostic type of player. He sees carries when they are winning and will still get passing-down work when they are not. He’s found the end zone in each of the past three weeks, scoring one on the ground and three through the air. I do not think it requires much of a leap to expect a starting running back on a team favored by double digits at home to get into the end zone.
The riskiest part of this bet is the Carolina side. They were horrendous last week and had an average depth of target of less than 1 yard. That is embarrassingly bad, but it does highlight the fact that they are going to be heavily using the running backs, no matter who that happens to be. The tricky part here is figuring out which running back will get the bulk of the work and the all-important goal-line carries. McCaffrey took such a large share of the volume before being traded and we are in uncharted waters now with this being the first game in the post-CMC era. Foreman has outsnapped Hubbard in every game but one this season, so I am leaning on him as the guy with the better chance to pick up more of the vacated touches. Carolina may only get one or two chances to score in this game, but with how ineffective the passing game has been under multiple quarterbacks, I’m banking on their best chance being a running back getting in and Foreman is my choice over Hubbard.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
A same game parlay is a bet that links multiple outcomes together that all come from the same event. Every NFL game has hundreds of different bet types. Sports books will offer bets on the spread, on the total, on who will score a touchdown, how many yards certain players will have, and many more events. A bettor has the ability to make a straight bet on each of these markets individually. If a bettor decides he wants to get a bigger payout by linking multiple outcomes together, that is what a same game parlay is for.
Why Bet Same Game Parlays
Same-game parlays offer a unique opportunity. Most parlays are -EV because you are trying to build up odds through uncorrelated events. When you put three teams in a parlay and it pays out at +595, you are getting the implied probability of 14.39%. There is not much value there — if you hit bets at a 52% clip, a three-team parlay at -110 odds has the implied probability of 14%. You are making a bad bet as the implied probability of you hitting the bet is less than the odds you are receiving.
Same-game parlays are different — you get an opportunity to add multiple events that increase your odds, and they are correlated. Same-game parlays are very similar to DFS game theory — you are telling yourself a story for how the game plays out and when you are right you win in a big way. Think Tom Brady has a huge game and throws for multiple touchdowns and over 300 yards? Well, he is going to have to take some receivers with him. Now the Buccaneers are putting pressure on the other team and they will have to respond by airing it out. Picking a receiver on the other team to run it back can give you serious odds and a big pay out. The reason to bet on the same-game parlays is because, when you are right, it pays off big. But it is very important when building them you aren’t trying to tell two different stories.
