Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Week 7 of the NFL season started off with a high-scoring game between the New Orleans Saints and the Arizona Cardinals. I wish I could say the contest tonight between the New England Patriots and the Chicago Bears is projected to be the same, but you guys know I would be lying.
The Patriots are up to -8.5 point favorites and the total is now down to 40 points. This game is unlikely to be a shootout, features two teams that would rather pound the run than throw, and projects to be much lower scoring. While that is not ideal for entertainment value, it is worth noting for gambling purposes. Even boring low-scoring games can be profitable if you are putting your money in the right places.
Best Same Game Parlay for Monday Night Football
Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 59.5 rushing Yards
Chicago Bears UNDER 17.5 points scored
Damien Harris anytime TD
Odds: DraftKings +400
The consensus opinion is that the Patriots will win this game and likely do it pulling away. This is one reason I avoided the game total. It could end up 24-14 just as easily as it could end up 38-14 if the Patriots find a pressure point in that Bears defense and just continue to press it. It could also end up 38-0 if they take away the run game and force the Bears’ anemic pass offense to beat them through the air.
While all of these scenarios are plausible, the one constant is that the Bears are unlikely to be the team cracking 20+ points in this matchup. Rather than chance an offensive and turnover explosion leading to Patriots blowout, you can minimize that risk and just bet under the Bears total. I took 17.5 because that’s > 2 touchdowns and a FG or 3 field goals and one touchdown, which is probably more likely to happen.
As for the Patriots, I really hate the game of Russian roulette we always have to play with the backs. Rhamondre Stevenson has been an animal as the lead dog, handling volume and breaking tackles. Chicago is a bottom-five run defense and one of the worst tackling teams in the NFL, so the skill set for Stevenson is exactly how you want to attack them. I know Damien Harris is back from injury, but Stevenson will be involved and likely still see the bulk of the carries.
If the Patriots go up big, you will see a lot of him late in the game as well. Without Harris, I would have been willing to take a much higher prop number here for Stevenson, as the game sets up so well for a run-heavy script for the Patriots. Harris had been the guy down near the goal line in short yardage, so I’m thinking if they are going to limit him at all, it will not be in those short-yardage situations.
Stevenson is -140 to score a touchdown, while Harris is sitting at +130 or higher. Both guys may ultimately get in the end zone here. Trying to decipher the running back usage on the Patriots has been a fool’s errand in the past, but I’m not trying to predict either guy for a huge day. Instead, I’m predicting them both to have a day in line with their best skill set. By parlaying them together, we get decent payout potential at 4-1 on our money.
