Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Week 6 of the NFL season is the start of bye weeks. That leaves us fewer games to take advantage of when looking for our same game parlay of the day. The one game that stands out the most is the Cleveland Browns taking on the New England Patriots.
Here is how I am looking to cash in on that game this weekend.
DraftKings NFL Week 6 Same Game Parlay
Nick Chubb Anytime Touchdown
Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime Touchdown
Over 43.5
Nick Chubb has been one of the most unstoppable forces in the NFL this season. He has run for over 100 yards in four of his five games. He is averaging just shy of 20 carries for just under 120 yards per game. More importantly for our purposes here, he has found the end zone a league-leading seven times already, including in four of the five games he has played. Chubb is as low as -250 on BetMGM to get a score, just to show you how likely sportsbooks think this is to happen.
Rhamondre Stevenson showed what he can do as a lead back last week after Damien Harris went out with an injury, getting 25 carries for 161 yards. He takes on a Browns defense that has allowed four of their five opponents to score multiple times on the ground this season, including being dismantled by Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley of the Chargers last week. They combined for 26 carries for 222 yards and two touchdowns. Harris is not officially ruled out, but the Patriots did sign another RB for depth, and even if he plays, he is clearly not 100%. Stevenson was already taking more of the load from Harris even before the injury, so even in the worst-case scenario Stevenson will see the bigger share of the RB carries. If Harris cannot go, 20-plus touches is definitely in the cards for a team that is leaning heavily on the run to protect their rookie quarterback Bailey Zappe. Opportunity, matchup and talent all converge here for Stevenson.
This is a very low total for a Cleveland Browns game. They are 4-1 to the over already in 2022, and many of those totals were 4-6 points higher than this one. This one opened a point or two lower and has been pushed up since then, so the consensus is that the number was a bit too low. If we are going to play both running backs for their expected touchdowns, that means scoring will be high and the over is more likely to hit.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
A same game parlay is a bet that links multiple outcomes together that all come from the same event. Every NFL game has hundreds of different bet types. Sports books will offer bets on the spread, on the total, on who will score a touchdown, how many yards certain players will have, and many more events. A bettor has the ability to make a straight bet on each of these markets individually. If a bettor decides he wants to get a bigger payout by linking multiple outcomes together, that is what a same game parlay is for.
Why Bet Same Game Parlays
Same-game parlays offer a unique opportunity. Most parlays are -EV because you are trying to build up odds through uncorrelated events. When you put three teams in a parlay and it pays out at +595, you are getting the implied probability of 14.39%. There is not much value there — if you hit bets at a 52% clip, a three-team parlay at -110 odds has the implied probability of 14%. You are making a bad bet as the implied probability of you hitting the bet is less than the odds you are receiving.
Same-game parlays are different — you get an opportunity to add multiple events that increase your odds, and they are correlated. Same-game parlays are very similar to DFS game theory — you are telling yourself a story for how the game plays out and when you are right you win in a big way. Think Tom Brady has a huge game and throws for multiple touchdowns and over 300 yards? Well, he is going to have to take some receivers with him. Now the Buccaneers are putting pressure on the other team and they will have to respond by airing it out. Picking a receiver on the other team to run it back can give you serious odds and a big pay out. The reason to bet on the same-game parlays is because, when you are right, it pays off big. But it is very important when building them you aren’t trying to tell two different stories.
