Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
As we enter the backstretch of the 2022 NFL season, Week 15 is only the second slate since Week 5 to feature all 32 NFL teams. The Sunday slate has intriguing matchups and plays, even with the regular prime-time slate and three Saturday games out of the way. One such matchup finds the red-hot Cincinnati Bengals (9-4) travel to Tampa to face a Buccaneers team coming off a 35-7 prime-time dismantling against the Brock Purdy-led San Francisco 49ers. Tampa Bay (6-7) will not have it easy this Sunday either, as the Bengals have ranked sixth in scoring defense over the last three weeks.
With the Buccaneers and Bengals heading in seemingly opposite directions, there are some interesting edges in this matchup between two teams battling to stay atop their respective divisions.
Each week in this space, we’re picking out our favorite same-game parlay for the Sunday action to get in on the betting action.
DraftKings NFL Week 15 Same Game Parlay
Cincinnati Bengals -3.5
Total Points Under 44.5
Rachaad White Under 49.5 Rushing Yards
+370, DraftKings Sportsbook
The Bengals come Sunday’s matchup winners of five straight (5-0 ATS) with a 9.6 average margin of victory over that span. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, have dropped two of their last three and needed every bit of Tom Brady’s late-game heroics to edge the Saints by a point. Tampa is 3-9-1 ATS this season and is getting just 3.5 points against one of the better defenses they will face this season. Brady’s average yards per throw this season is 6.4, 33rd in the league. Cincinnati ranks 10th in defensive pass DVOA, which should stifle any comeback bids this week. I’m smashing the Bengals -3.5.
I love the under in this game at 44.5. The Buccaneers have not scored more than 17 points in any of their last five games, so it will be a challenge to keep up with the Bengals, who, over their previous five games, are averaging 29.8 per contest. Both teams rank in the top 11 in defensive DVOA, so I expect a lower point total than the Bengals’ recent scoring average. That said, The Bengals should still be able to score on offense, requiring Brady to take deeper shots. This season, Brady is only completing 35% of his passes of 20 yards or longer, while the Bengals only allow 31.58% of deep passing completions. If the Bucs are down early (which I expect), combined with their anemic big play potential and running game struggles, I simply don’t know how they move the ball and score points. Under. Under. Under.
This season, Tampa Bay ranks 30th in rush DVOA and faces a stingy Cincinnati rush defense that is allowing 83.5 yards to running backs per game. I expect the Bengals to get ahead early, thus limiting an already struggling Buccaneers running game that averages 72.2 yards per contest, the lowest in the league. Over the last three weeks, the Bucs have scored 13 total offensive points in the first half and are throwing the ball over 50 times per game. The gamescript should require more of the same from Brady in this matchup, so I don’t think Rachaad White gets the opportunities on the ground to get past the alternate line of 49.5. It’s still a possibility the Bengals have to start two rookie corners against the aged veteran, but, given Brady’s deep ball completion rate this season, I don’t think that changes anything with this parlay. In fact, the more he throws the ball short, the more it’s not being handed off to Rachaad White. Sorry, Rachaad.
