Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Every week of the NFL season, we at FTN will be writing up our favorite same-game parlays for the Thursday and Monday night football games, as well as for the Sunday slate. We will also be posting them in the NFL Bet Tracker, so if you want to bet them with us, head over to where you can find all of the FTNBets’ team’s picks.
NFL Same Game Parlay of the Day: Week 13 Thursday Slate
The New England Patriots take on the Buffalo Bills in a fun AFC East matchup for Thursday Night Football this week. Both teams sport records above .500 in the most competitive division in all of football. Every team in the AFC east has a record above .500. These intradivisional matchups are very important for overall playoff hopes, as well as playoff seeding as divisional record is one of the tiebreakers. Here is how I am looking to make a score with my same game parlay of the day.
Devin Singletary Over 49.5 Rushing Yards
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 59.5 Rushing Yards
Patriots +4.5
This week’s Thursday same game parlay is a run-heavy one. The Patriots are a good pass defense, which should mean we see the run game more of a factor here for Buffalo. Devin Singletary is not a big touchdown scorer, but he has been racking up the yards when given the lead back role. He has lost some carries to James Cook, but when the Bills are in close games, it tends to be Singletary who gets a bump in snap share and touches. He out-touched Cook 14-2 last week on his way to over 70 rushing yards. We would only need him to get over 50 in this case, which is a very good possibility in 35-degree weather with wins over 10 MPH predicted against a god pass defense. They should be featuring the running game here.
As for the Patriots, the big news is that Damien Harris is unlikely to play. Rhamondre Stevenson already usurped his RB1 role, but without Harris to steal a handful of carries, it is plausible we see 20-plus out of Stevenson Thursday. Stevenson has played two games without Harris this season, rushing for 60 or more yards in both and seeing no fewer than 15 carries in either. Stevenson has seen his receiving work up and rushing work drop with Harris back in the lineup the last few weeks, especially last game when the Patriots were trailing. The absence of Harris means Stevenson is going to be busy on the ground. Remember last season the Patriots pulled off an upset over the Bills by pounding the run and attempting just a handful of passes all game. I doubt the splits are this severe Thursday, but I would expect a heavy dose of carries.
As for the spread, it seems a bit high. The Patriots are going to take the air out of the ball and Buffalo has not looked as dominant in recent weeks as they did to start the season. Cold weather and a slow pace are negatives for a team to win the game big. Divisional rivalries also tend to be close games with the teams being very familiar with each other’s personnel and play tendencies. I think the Pats have a chance to win this game outright, but with the low predicting score, I feel much safer taking the +4.5 the books are offering here and grabbing the protection of it being a one-score game.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
A same game parlay is a bet that links multiple outcomes together that all come from the same event. Every NFL game has hundreds of different bet types. Sports books will offer bets on the spread, on the total, on who will score a touchdown, how many yards certain players will have, and many more events. A bettor has the ability to make a straight bet on each of these markets individually. If a bettor decides he wants to get a bigger payout by linking multiple outcomes together, that is what a same game parlay is for.
Why Bet Same Game Parlays
Same-game parlays offer a unique opportunity. Most parlays are -EV because you are trying to build up odds through uncorrelated events. When you put three teams in a parlay and it pays out at +595, you are getting the implied probability of 14.39%. There is not much value there — if you hit bets at a 52% clip, a three-team parlay at -110 odds has the implied probability of 14%. You are making a bad bet as the implied probability of you hitting the bet is less than the odds you are receiving.
Same-game parlays are different — you get an opportunity to add multiple events that increase your odds, and they are correlated. Same-game parlays are very similar to DFS game theory — you are telling yourself a story for how the game plays out and when you are right you win in a big way. Think Tom Brady has a huge game and throws for multiple touchdowns and over 300 yards? Well, he is going to have to take some receivers with him. Now the Buccaneers are putting pressure on the other team and they will have to respond by airing it out. Picking a receiver on the other team to run it back can give you serious odds and a big pay out. The reason to bet on the same-game parlays is because, when you are right, it pays off big. But it is very important when building them you aren’t trying to tell two different stories.
