NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Every week of the NFL season, we at FTN will be writing up our favorite same-game parlays for the Thursday and Monday night football games, as well as for the Sunday slate. We will also be posting them in the NFL Bet Tracker, so if you want to bet them with us, head over to where you can find all of the FTNBets’ team’s picks.
NFL Same Game Parlay of the Day: Week 12 Thanksgiving Slate
The NFL same game parlay for Thanksgiving is a nod to the great John Madden. Madden used to give the MVP or MVPs of the Thanksgiving game a gift of turkey legs in the postgame interview. One year, they had a six-legged turkey. I will not be handing out turkey this year, but what I do have for you guys is a six-legged same-game parlay for the New York Giants/Dallas Cowboys game.
Tony Pollard Anytime Touchdown
Ezekiel Elliott Anytime Touchdown
Saquon Barkley Anytime Touchdown
Tony Pollard Over 54.5 Rushing Yards
CeeDee Lamb Over 54.5 Receiving Yards
Darius Slayton Over 34.5 Receiving Yards
The second game of the Thanksgiving NFL slate features a matchup between two NFC East rivals in the Giants and Cowboys. Both teams like to rely on their run games. That is why this parlay skews heavily to the ground forces. Ezekiel Elliott returned to the lineup last week and did what he does best — score short touchdowns. Zeke has 6 scores in eight games played this season, including finding the end zone in the last three games he has been active. When he was out, Tony Pollard was the lead back for the Cowboys and took advantage of that opportunity. Pollard rushed for over 100 yards in both games without Zeke and rushed for 80 yards in the last two games the two played together as well. That is why I love that over 54.5-yard part of this parlay. Pollard has also scored in each of the last three games including a pair of touchdowns in the most recent. That pair of touchdowns was in the same game as Elliott scoring twice on the ground, so I have zero concern about those two both producing in the same game.
As for the passing game, CeeDee Lamb has stepped forward as the main guy for this Cowboys team. The Giants are solid on the perimeter, but Lamb also lines up in the slot, where I expect him to do the most damage on Thursday. Lamb has gone over this prop number in all but three games this season. The most recent game is one of those with only five catches for 45 yards, but the Cowboys won that game 40-3 and did not need to throw it to him often. I would expect this game to be closer on Thursday as divisional rivalries usually are.
The last two legs of the parlay are on the Giants side of the football. Darius Slayton has emerged as the alpha receiver for New York. He has cleared this prop number in five of the last six games. The Giants traded Kadarius Toney, benched Kenny Golladay and saw Sterling Shepard and Wan’Dale Robinson go down to injury. Slayton went from fringe roster spot guy to No. 1 WR. Slayton and Robinson were the only two pass catchers doing anything for the Giants, outside of running back Saquon Barkley, and now Robinson is done for the year. Barkley has scored a TD in six of the last 10 games for the Giants, including one in the first matchup between these two teams at Giants stadium. If they are going to keep this game close, Barkley needs to be very involved. The run game is the best way to neutralize that deadly pass rush, and Barkley is still leading the league in backfield usage rate.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
A same game parlay is a bet that links multiple outcomes together that all come from the same event. Every NFL game has hundreds of different bet types. Sports books will offer bets on the spread, on the total, on who will score a touchdown, how many yards certain players will have, and many more events. A bettor has the ability to make a straight bet on each of these markets individually. If a bettor decides he wants to get a bigger payout by linking multiple outcomes together, that is what a same game parlay is for.
Why Bet Same Game Parlays
Same-game parlays offer a unique opportunity. Most parlays are -EV because you are trying to build up odds through uncorrelated events. When you put three teams in a parlay and it pays out at +595, you are getting the implied probability of 14.39%. There is not much value there — if you hit bets at a 52% clip, a three-team parlay at -110 odds has the implied probability of 14%. You are making a bad bet as the implied probability of you hitting the bet is less than the odds you are receiving.
Same-game parlays are different — you get an opportunity to add multiple events that increase your odds, and they are correlated. Same-game parlays are very similar to DFS game theory — you are telling yourself a story for how the game plays out and when you are right you win in a big way. Think Tom Brady has a huge game and throws for multiple touchdowns and over 300 yards? Well, he is going to have to take some receivers with him. Now the Buccaneers are putting pressure on the other team and they will have to respond by airing it out. Picking a receiver on the other team to run it back can give you serious odds and a big pay out. The reason to bet on the same-game parlays is because, when you are right, it pays off big. But it is very important when building them you aren’t trying to tell two different stories.
