Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The same game parlay for Monday Night Football is a straightforward one. It collects the three most bet on player props for this matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Indianapolis Colts as reported by both BetMGM and PointsBet.
The odds on this parlay were better on DraftKings than either of those two books, which is why we are using that to place this bet. Here is what I am calling the public same game parlay of the day for Monday Night Football in Week 12.
DraftKings Same Game Parlay of the day
Jonathan Taylor anytime touchdown
Pat Freiermuth over 39.5 receiving yards
Steelers +3.5
Odds: +450 DraftKings
The same game parlay of the day is a collection of the three most bet props for Monday Night football, according to the reports on public money wagered so far. The Steelers at +3 have become the wise-guy pick of the week. According to PointsBet, 47% of the bets, but 87% of the money has been placed on the Steelers +3. We have seen multiple books drop the spread from +3 to +2.5, and some of them even have that listed at -110 standard juice now. Whenever you see a massive difference in the number of bets and the money, it tells you that the bets being placed are big bets. Big bets are usually an indication of sharp money coming in from big betting groups that place large wagers, which is the signal we are getting on this game.
The most bet prop of the week is Jonathan Taylor to score a TD. Taylor is -150 to find the end zone against the Steelers. Taylor has not been in the end zone as often in 2022, but so far in two games under the new coach Jeff Saturday, he has seen 20+ carries in each and found the end zone in both. He is a workhorse back on a home favorite. Running backs that are favored and/or at home score at a higher rate, so it makes sense that everyone is gravitating toward Taylor in this one.
The last leg of the parlay is a bet we have been riding for a few weeks. It has cashed for us in three of the last four, and I am going back to the well tonight. This is up to 44.5 at -110, and we can take it a few yards below that for a little bit more juice. Pat Freiermuth has had no less than seven targets and no fewer than four catches in each of the last four games. He is averaging five catches on just shy of nine targets for a little over 60 yards per game during this stretch.
At 40 yards, we have a massive edge on what he has averaged over the last month, and the Steelers being an underdog helps the passing game. All three of these bets are good value on their own, but combining them creates a +450 payout which is a very nice starting point before adding in any bonus percentages.
