Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Every week of the NFL season, we at FTN will be writing up our favorite same-game parlays for the Thursday and Monday night football games, as well as for the Sunday slate. We will also be posting them in the NFL Bet Tracker, so if you want to bet them with us, head over to where you can find all of the FTNBets’ team’s picks.
NFL Same Game Parlay of the Day: Week 11 Thursday Slate
We have a very intriguing Thursday Night Football game between the Tennessee Titans and Green Bay Packers this week. The Packers are 3-point favorites at home, and the total is a low number at just 41. The injury situation is not that bad heading into Thursday night. Romeo Doubs of the Packers is really the only question mark left on the offensive side for either team. I doubt he plays, as he has not practiced yet. The talk was he would be out for a few weeks. Even so, Christian Watson was great last week, catching three touchdowns, so the Packers can be solid without Doubs. Here are my thoughts on the best way to take advantage of all those boosts on a same-game parlay for the Thursday game.
Aaron Rodgers 2+ Touchdown Passes
Christian Watson Anytime Touchdown
Derrick Henry Over 104.5 Rushing Yards
The same game parlay of the day for this game is one built to take advantage of the biggest weakness on each defense. The Packers’ pass rush and coverage are in the top third of the league, but their run defense ranks bottom third. The Packers have given up over 140 rushing yards per game, the fourth-worst mark in the NFL. Derrick Henry had his streak of five straight 100-yard rushing games snapped last time out, but he’s averaging over 22 carries a game for over 100 yards rushing on the season, so I am expecting him to bounce back. The forecast is calling for temperatures in the 20s with winds over 10 MPH. It sure looks to be setting up for a very cold day and that favors the big bruiser running back.
On the flip side, the Titans are very stingy against the run. They are not bad against the pass either, but they have been beat deep this year by multiple receivers. The Titans are allowing the second-most passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks at 272. Teams have been attacking them through the air with success all season, and I would expect the Packers to try to mimic that success. Christian Watson saw a season-high 8 targets last game, catching 4 for 107 yards and converting three into touchdowns. It was not efficient, but it was high volume and led to points on the board. If Watson is going to be used as a downfield threat, I would rather just play the anytime touchdown at a juicy +195 price tag. He might get three or four shots down the field in this one and given the high variance on guys who tend to see the deep shots, I want to avoid the catch and yardage totals.
As for Aaron Rodgers, he has a chance to be the sixth signal caller to throw for multiple touchdowns against this defense —. Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, Josh Allen, Daniel Jones and Derek Carr have already done so this season. The lack of success teams have running the ball against Tennessee is what has led to the passing game production. It is the easier way to attack this defense. This has not been Rodgers’ best season, but he’s still tossing touchdown passes. He has 2 or more in seven of 10 games this year, which makes the -110 payout on this play against a defense giving them up a little bit too good of a value to pass up (all pun intended).
What is a Same Game Parlay?
A same game parlay is a bet that links multiple outcomes together that all come from the same event. Every NFL game has hundreds of different bet types. Sports books will offer bets on the spread, on the total, on who will score a touchdown, how many yards certain players will have, and many more events. A bettor has the ability to make a straight bet on each of these markets individually. If a bettor decides he wants to get a bigger payout by linking multiple outcomes together, that is what a same game parlay is for.
Why Bet Same Game Parlays
Same-game parlays offer a unique opportunity. Most parlays are -EV because you are trying to build up odds through uncorrelated events. When you put three teams in a parlay and it pays out at +595, you are getting the implied probability of 14.39%. There is not much value there — if you hit bets at a 52% clip, a three-team parlay at -110 odds has the implied probability of 14%. You are making a bad bet as the implied probability of you hitting the bet is less than the odds you are receiving.
Same-game parlays are different — you get an opportunity to add multiple events that increase your odds, and they are correlated. Same-game parlays are very similar to DFS game theory — you are telling yourself a story for how the game plays out and when you are right you win in a big way. Think Tom Brady has a huge game and throws for multiple touchdowns and over 300 yards? Well, he is going to have to take some receivers with him. Now the Buccaneers are putting pressure on the other team and they will have to respond by airing it out. Picking a receiver on the other team to run it back can give you serious odds and a big pay out. The reason to bet on the same-game parlays is because, when you are right, it pays off big. But it is very important when building them you aren’t trying to tell two different stories.
