Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The NFL same-game parlay for Week 11 is a run-heavy one. The Chicago Bears and Atlanta Falcons are two of the run-heaviest teams in the NFL in 2022 and will be facing each other this weekend. The game is going to be played in a dome, so weather is not an issue. With that said, these two teams want to run the ball anyway. Chicago leads the league with a 59% run rate and Atlanta is second at 56%. That is why the same game parlay I like most is a run dominant one in this game.
Models are only as good as the inputs you use to build them. If you have a large sample of games, you can make better predictions with all that information. When the number of games a team has played without a player or with a player in a new role is limited, it is much tougher to accurately predict how that player will do. That leads to some inefficiencies in pricing and that is what we are looking to take advantage of for our Week 11 NFL same game parlay pick.
DraftKings NFL Week 11 Same Game Parlay
David Montgomery Anytime TD
Cordarrelle Patterson Anytime TD
David Montgomery Over 64.5 Rushing Yards
The Bears have the highest run rate in the league at 59%. They have a running QB and a two-headed monster of Khalil Herbert and David Montgomery at running back. But Herbert is out, landing on IR this week, which means this should feature a massive volume spike for Montgomery. Montgomery has not seen 20 touches since Week 1. When he was injured and then missed a game in Weeks 3-4, Herbert handled over 20 touches both times. In recent games the two have split the 20-plus touches that backs are seeing in this offense. Without Herbert, almost all of those will end up on Montgomery’s plate, which could mean double the 10 touches he saw last week (or more). Herbert has definitely been the more productive of the two, but I’m looking for volume to trump efficiency here for Montgomery. The Falcons are allowing 1.3 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing backs, the fifth highest amount in the NFL. That gives me confidence that Montgomery can find the end zone, despite having only two rushing touchdowns on the season. Khalil Herbert has scored five touchdowns on the year, but his absence and the soft matchup makes this a prime spot for Montgomery to turn things around.
Cordarrelle Patterson has played in six games this year and scored in four of the six. He faces one of the worst run defenses in the league. Chicago is giving up over 140 yards per game, which is the fifth worst in the NFL. More importantly for our touchdown bet here, the Bears are one of three teams giving up an average of 1.7 touchdowns per game on the ground. Patterson has been used in the red zone, has pass catching equity, and does still get some carries. He has not been the workhorse back he was last year, but he is still the preferred back in many of those high leverage situations inside the 20 for both running and passing work. In a matchup that favors running the ball, his potential to score is greater than payout for him doing so. That makes him an excellent anytime TD scorer value on his own and a play I want to include in the same game parlay.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
A same game parlay is a bet that links multiple outcomes together that all come from the same event. Every NFL game has hundreds of different bet types. Sports books will offer bets on the spread, on the total, on who will score a touchdown, how many yards certain players will have, and many more events. A bettor has the ability to make a straight bet on each of these markets individually. If a bettor decides he wants to get a bigger payout by linking multiple outcomes together, that is what a same game parlay is for.
Why Bet Same Game Parlays
Same-game parlays offer a unique opportunity. Most parlays are -EV because you are trying to build up odds through uncorrelated events. When you put three teams in a parlay and it pays out at +595, you are getting the implied probability of 14.39%. There is not much value there — if you hit bets at a 52% clip, a three-team parlay at -110 odds has the implied probability of 14%. You are making a bad bet as the implied probability of you hitting the bet is less than the odds you are receiving.
Same-game parlays are different — you get an opportunity to add multiple events that increase your odds, and they are correlated. Same-game parlays are very similar to DFS game theory — you are telling yourself a story for how the game plays out and when you are right you win in a big way. Think Tom Brady has a huge game and throws for multiple touchdowns and over 300 yards? Well, he is going to have to take some receivers with him. Now the Buccaneers are putting pressure on the other team and they will have to respond by airing it out. Picking a receiver on the other team to run it back can give you serious odds and a big pay out. The reason to bet on the same-game parlays is because, when you are right, it pays off big. But it is very important when building them you aren’t trying to tell two different stories.
