Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
We have a very intriguing opportunity to bet some same game parlays on the Monday Night Football matchup between two NFC West teams. The San Francisco 49ers have jumped up to a 10-point road favorite against the Arizona Cardinals. The big news here is the status of Kyler Murray. He is going to miss his second straight game, and that fact has caused the spread and total to inflate. Veteran Colt McCoy will start, and he wasn’t bad in his last game.
While I agree he is a downgrade from Murray, we can argue whether or not the Cardinals were downgraded too much in this situation. It is not going to be an easy matchup against a very talented and balanced San Francisco 49ers team, but we can find a few good values for our same game parlay of the day.
DraftKings Same Game Parlay of the day
San Francisco 49ers Moneyline
Colt McCoy to throw an interception
Christian McCaffrey anytime TD
Odds: +205 DraftKings
One problem a lot of people have with making same game parlay picks is that they want to win 20, 50 or 100 times their bet. Something paying 20-1 has less than a 5% chance to happen, while 50-1 implies less than a 2% chance and 100-1 is less than a 1% chance. Many times a parlay with that payout includes a 20-1 shot or some other very low-probability play. I have always been of the mindset that those are better to make as straight up bets, because it is hard enough to hit something with those odds, but it’s a killer when you do and something you thought was a lock to happen at -200 is what kills that parlay and leaves you with nothing. I prefer to use parlays as a way to link a few high-probability things together for a better payout, and that is exactly the route I am taking here.
The San Francisco 49ers are massive favorites on the moneyline. That is to be expected for a 10-point favorite. If you wanted to juice up the payout here, you can skip this leg and instead play alternate spreads for the 49ers to win by more points. -2.5 and -6.5 are the popular ones I would look into if you want to juice this payout up a bit. I do not envision many scenarios where the Cardinals offense puts up a lot of points, and even fewer where that struggling defense shuts down San Francisco. That is why I went with the moneyline and hopefully an easy cover.
Colt McCoy will be under pressure and will face a very solid defensive unit here. The 49ers average over three sacks per game and have picked off a pass in six of nine contests so far this year. A double-digit underdog will likely have to skew pass heavy. Pass-heavy game plans against teams that generate pressure and have ball-hawking coverage guys is a recipe for an interception.
I know Elijah Mitchell was worked in last week, but Christian McCaffrey still found the end zone again. That is something he has done in each of the last two games since fully practicing and settling into his role with the 49ers. He has an implied probability of 60% to get into the box tonight. Given the fact he contributes on the ground and through the air, it makes sense to continue to target him for touchdown upside, as the 49ers will scheme the best ways to get him the ball. They have so many weapons right now that you can’t concentrate on just one guy, which should make life easier for everyone. That is especially true for McCaffrey, who could see more space in SF than he ever did in the unbalanced offensive attacks in Carolina.
