Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The final game of Wild Card Weekend takes place tonight between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Dallas Cowboys. This is a very interesting game, as the Cowboys looked like trash last week, and the Bucs finally looked like an offense that had some explosiveness. This game has a total of 45.5, which is slightly higher than normal for the Bucs and probably on the mid-to-lower end for the Cowboys.
This is unlikely to be a high-paced, high-scoring slugfest that features tons of yardage, touchdowns and upside. We have to be very selective with overs and mindful of the fact both teams have weapons in the run and pass game. Here is how I am going to play my same game parlay tonight.
Same Game Parlay of the Day
Ezekiel Elliott anytime TD
Chris Godwin receiving yards over 54.5
Tom Brady 40+ pass attempts
Odds: +285 DraftKings
My same game parlay bet is not one that goes out on a limb, but the payout is pretty reasonable for a bet with a high probability of hitting. The leg I like the most on the Dallas side is Ezekiel Elliott to find the end zone. Before the Washington disaster last week, Zeke had scored a touchdown in seven straight games for the Cowboys. He hasn’t been super efficient and has lost work over the season to the younger Tony Pollard, but Zeke owns the red zone. In 15 games this year, Zeke found the end zone 12 times on 40 red-zone carries. The 12 touchdowns rank behind only Austin Ekeler and Jamaal Williams, yet he is plus money here to get in the box. There is a lot of value on that price.
Chris Godwin has not had less than 54 yards receiving in any game since Week 9. With the lack of time Tom Brady has to throw, Godwin has benefitted with those quick passes into the middle of the field. Godwin has sailed past this number in most games with only two of the last eight games being close to this mark at 54 and 55 yards, respectively. His recent floor could still cash on this number, and if he has a decent/big game, he should top this easily.
Brady is not working the ball deep down the field as much this season, but the volume of passes has been predictable and high. Brady has tossed 40+ passes in all but four games this season. The rushing attack for the Bucs has been largely ineffective this season, and if they fall behind they will abandon it all together. Even if they don’t fall behind, the best yards per play gained have been through the air for the Bucs.
