Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Each week in this space, we’re picking out our favorite same-game parlay for the Sunday action to get in on the betting action.
The Eagles started the year 8-0 and looked dominant throughout most of the season. Jalen Hurts proved he is a franchise quarterback and may still be in the MVP race. Gardner Minshew started two games in relief of Hurts (shoulder) and lost both contests. The Eagles starter returned with back-to-back wins over the division rival New York Giants, including a Week 18 win to secure the NFC’s top seed and last week’s 38-7 Divisional Round drubbing.
The 49ers, meanwhile, have been rolling for months and come into Philly on a 12-game winning streak. Since Jimmy Garoppolo’s Week 13 injury, Brock Purdy has gone undefeated, eight straight wins and a 7-0 record as a starter, but he looked like a rookie at times last week. Purdy did not turn the ball over in last week’s game, but he did have a few close calls. During the regular season, Philadelphia led the NFL with 70 sacks, 15 more than the second-place Chiefs. In short, I cannot wait to watch this matchup and how the rookie handles the inevitable pressure to come.
I like the Eagles -2.5 and the over, so I designed my SGP with that in mind and kept it within the realm of what I view as highly likely to hit in Sunday’s NFC Championship.
DraftKings Same Game Parlay of the Day
Jalen Hurts Over 224.5 Passing Yards
DeVonta Smith Anytime TD
Christian McCaffrey 4+ Receptions
+380, DraftKings Sportsbook
Over his last five starts, Jalen Hurts has averaged 259 passing yards per game, including two matchups that got out of hand quickly against the Giants. In this matchup against the 49ers, Hurts is going to have to throw the ball to beat them. While Hurts’ rushing ability and the entire Eagles’ rushing offense are elite, San Francisco allows the fewest yards per game to opposing running backs (59.6) and the fifth fewest to opposing quarterbacks (12.5). I like all of this, including San Francisco’s chances to keep the gamescript close to neutral. I love this over.
DeVonta Smith feels like a legit 1A in Philly. He has three touchdowns in his last four games, averaging 7.5 receptions and 89 yards per game over that span. Last week against the Giants, Smith scored easily on a designed bubble screen, and I like his chances for more of the same this week against a San Francisco defense tied for the seventh-most touchdowns per game (0.94) and the sixth-most yards per game (167.5) to opposing wideouts. Again, this comes down to my belief that the 49ers will limit the Eagles’ rushing attack, setting up a massive opportunity for Smith to find paydirt.
Last week in Dallas, against a team with an elite pass rush, Christian McCaffrey had six receptions on eight targets. Eagles offensive tackle Lane Johnson (groin) practiced Thursday and expects to play Sunday, setting up a very intriguing matchup when he faces against San Francisco pass rusher Nick Bosa. Expect Bosa to win his share of battles and for Purdy to look to check down to McCaffrey as he did against Dallas last week. I like it to hit the over in the game against an Eagles defense that allows 5.1 receptions per game to running backs.
