NFL look-ahead lines report for Week 15

You want to win money betting on NFL games, that's why you're here. 

The challenge that most casual bettors run into is their late call to action, i.e., betting moments before a game kicks off. Sure, we want to bet the game that we're watching, but at the end of the day, we want to win! Unfortunately, beating closing lines in the NFL is a long-term -EV proposition.

Each week of the season, I'll be providing a first glance at the upcoming NFL slate through the lens of look-ahead lines, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Look-ahead lines are typically released on Thursdays and are often taken down shortly after the current week's Thursday night game kicks off, though FanDuel seems to be leaving them up through Saturday if you have access to that sportsbook. This short look-ahead window provides a peek at how teams are valued prior to the start of the week. It's also an opportunity to act before the games are posted and sharpened on Sunday evening after the previous week's games are complete. 

These lines are a true indicator of how bookmakers value each team, without the influence of recency bias after watching eight hours of football earlier in the day. Depending on the bookmaker, and bettor for that matter, you may or may not be able to get the type of action down that you'd like. The key is understanding where the value is on the board in any given week, and that is easier to do once you know what the opening number was. 

Here's a look at the Week 15 lines, with the spread listed based on the home team:

Noonan's notes

• When I'm firing at these spots early, it's because I strongly believe that this number is going to beat the closing line, and perhaps, it ends up being the best of the number. Basically, if I'm right in Week 14, I'm going to have an advantage in predicting where the line movement will come first in Week 15.

• The Broncos (+5.5) might be the only team with a true home-field advantage this season because playing at altitude is unquestionably unique, but getting the Bills (-5.5) at less than a touchdown won't last for long.

• The Panthers' (+8.5) defense is 28th in EPA/dropback over the past six weeks. That doesn't bode well for them as they travel to Lambeau to face Aaron Rodgers and the Packers (-8.5). There's no value here currently, but Green Bay becomes interesting if D.J. Moore and Christian McCaffrey sit out again.

• I like the Vikings (-6) quite a bit at this price. I have them as 6.5-point favorites against the Bears (+6) on a neutral field, and this one is being played in Minnesota. The Bears' lack of pass rush is exposing an overrated secondary. Chicago's defense ranks 29th in pressure rate on the season, and they've allowed the fourth-highest EPA/dropback over the past six weeks.

• AFC South foes Houston (+6) and Indianapolis (-6) meet for the second time in three weeks. This is back-to-back road games for the Texans, who are looking to rebound from a disappointing late fumble that cost them a chance to close out this Week 13 matchup.

• The Jaguars (+11.5) are not a good football team, but they continue to find a way to cover and keep games close. If the Ravens (-11.5) win in Cleveland Monday night, this could get up to 13-14, but that's too high.

• New England (+2.5) plays its third straight on the road in Week 15, this time in Miami (-2.5) after an extended stay in Los Angeles for games against the Chargers and Rams.

• The Falcons (+2.5) fired Dan Quinn after starting 0-5 and at the time, ranked 30th defensively in EPA per play allowed. Since the coaching change, they're sixth in defensive EPA per play allowed, a notable shift that's resulted in a 4-3 record under Raheem Morris heading into their Week 14 matchup against the Chargers. If Julio Jones is out or limited though, I think they'll have trouble with Tampa Bay (-2.5).

• The only good thing that the Jets (+13.5) have done this season is requesting to play their West Coast games on back-to-back weeks. After their Week 14 matchup and likely drubbing by Seattle, New York will travel south to spend the week in Los Angeles (-13.5) before their inevitable loss to the Rams in Week 15.

• The Chiefs (-3) are on the road again, this time in New Orleans (+3) for one of the best matchups of the season, and a potential Super Bowl preview. We'll need to know the status of Drew Brees in order to properly handicap this one, but this should be an outstanding game to watch.