MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
Every Friday, FTNBets will bring you one NFL futures bet we are making for the upcoming 2023 season. Today’s bet is a player prop on Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett. You can find 2023 NFL projections for Pickett here at FTNFantasy. All of the available betting lines for Pickett are available on our FTNBets Prop Shop, where you are able to shop around for the sportsbook with the best odds on each player or team.
2023 Passing Touchdown Prop
Kenny Pickett Over 17.5 Passing Touchdowns
I’ve seen enough.
Kenny Pickett has inherited the Pittsburgh starting quarterback job in only his second NFL season. He started 12 games last year and endured the typical rookie challenges. Pickett led the Steelers to six victories in their last seven games, throwing a touchdown pass in four of his last five contests.
Pickett has looked fantastic in the preseason, taking command of a Steelers offense with a bevy of elite playmakers. Pickett has led four preseason drives, and all four have resulted in touchdowns. Two on passing touchdowns, and two via the running game.
Pittsburgh has provided Pickett with explosive weapons at every position. Wide receivers Diontae Johnson and George Pickens are among the best tandems in the league, tight end Pat Freiermuth has posted 60 and 63 receptions in each of his first two seasons, and both Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren are prolific pass-catching running backs. That number of offensive playmakers rivals any other NFL team. Pickett is even due for some positive touchdown regression, per FTN’s own Scott Spratt.
To bear this prop, Pickett simply needs to average just 1.02 touchdown passes per week for a full season. Reviewing last year’s quarterback stats on FTN Data, that would actually be a lower touchdown passing rate than Houston’s Davis Mills (1.13), Indianapolis’ Matt Ryan (1.17) or Washington’s Carson Wentz (1.38). To say that is reasonable, with Pittsburgh’s weapons, is the understatement of the year.
The only way Pickett doesn’t beat this prop is injury, something every NFL player can suffer. The Steelers have the eighth-easiest schedule per opposing Vegas win totals, with fantastic passing atmospheres against Arizona (home), Tennessee (home), at Houston, and at the Los Angeles Rams. They also avoid a road trip to rival Baltimore until Week 18.
I have no problem paying the -125 juice on this passing touchdown prop at Caesars. There are even opportunities to grab over 18.5 passing touchdowns at +100 on both DraftKings and BetMGM. I believe in the Steelers, their weapons, head coach Mike Tomlin, their easy schedule, and Pickett’s quarterback prowess to get this passing touchdown prop straight to the cash window at season’s end.
