UFC Singapore MMA Betting Odds (8/26)

I never thought I’d be excited to wake up at 5 a.m. on a Saturday for some fights. Here we are, though, as the UFC takes the show to Singapore for an action-packed 13-fight card headlined by Max Holloway and The Korean Zombie Chan Sun Jung. The co-main event features two hard-hitting light heavyweights when Anthony Smith looks to make it 2-0 against Ryan “Superman” Spann.

Giga Chikadze returns to the octagon after being on the sidelines for nearly two years. He takes on the always-exciting Alex Caceres in a three-round banger. Rinya Nakamura looks to continue his streak of first-round finishes against Fortis MMA product Fernie Garcia. And Erin Blanchfield looks to continue her run to the belt, this time through former title challenger Talita Santos.

Below, I summarize the main card from a betting perspective and produce a best bet for each. Let’s get into it. All odds are per BetMGM.

Holloway vs. Jung Odds

Max Holloway -850, Chan Sung Jung +550

Perhaps a bit past their primes, Max Holloway and “The Korean Zombie” Chan Sung Jung step into the octagon with no other reason than to give the fans in Singapore a show. Holloway has taken a break from chasing the title after failing to recapture the belt from current featherweight king Alex Volkanovski. Outside of Volk, Holloway has been able to dispatch any challenge that comes his way. Holloway’s high-level skills were displayed against Calvin Kattar, Yair Rodriguez and his most recent dominant performance against Arnold Allen. All these wins indicate that the only person on earth to have Holloway’s number is the champ, and even after nearly 15 years, the Hawaiian can make another run at the belt. In the UFC, Max has only lost to current or former champions. His game is structured around an overwhelming pace; he averages nearly eight significant strikes per minute, defends 59% of strikes, and has a takedown defense of 85%. He doesn’t attempt many takedowns but is well-rounded and capable of defending Himself from submission attempts. The longer this fight goes, the better it is for Max. Not only will his volume be too much, but even if he doesn’t land the more damaging shots, Jung doesn’t throw enough volume to win on the scorecards. Jung is a counter striker with dynamite, specifically in his right hand.

Like Holloway, Jung has been in the UFC for over a decade. That’s why it’s surprising this fight wasn’t booked when both fighters were in their prime. Jung would immediately make an impact after landing one of three twister submissions ever in UFC history. He would beat Mark Hominick and Dustin Poirier and then challenge Jose Aldo for the belt before going on a three-year mandatory military assignment from 2013 to 2017. A knockout win over Dennis Bermudez reintroduced the Korean Zombie to the masses, and since then, he has stayed active, fighting a minimum of twice a year until 2020. Since 2020, Jung has fought once a year, mostly coming up for hair in main event spots. A win over Dan Ige in 2021 set up another and perhaps his title challenge. Zombie would come up short and get knocked out for the second time in three fights. He may be coming up on a retirement fight, and as he was quoted saying this performance against Holloway may decide his future in the sport.

If Jung had at least been competitive against Volkanovski, I could see a path to victory for him. He was beaten in every round and almost stopped multiple times until it was over in the fourth round. Unless he lands a counter from hell, I don’t see him having his way in Singapore and instead see Holloway putting on another masterclass like he did against Arnold Allen. The best is blessed this weekend; roll with Max Holloway. 

Bet: Max Holloway in Rounds 4, 5 or by decision -130 

Smith vs. Spann Odds

Anthony Smith +115, Ryan Spann -140

A bomb is set to explode in the co-main event when Smith and Spann toe the line for a second time in two years. The pair fought back in 2021. It was a back-and-forth affair in a phone booth until Spann was stunned and fell off a cliff. Spann had his moments displaying strength, speed and the capacity to shut the lights off. Unfortunately, once he was hurt, he couldn’t find his legs and lost. That fight would be the third consecutive win for Smith and the first five-round fight for Spann. After that fight, Spann would go on a two-fight win streak, stopping former title challenger Dominick Reyes in round one and dispatching Ion Cutelaba after surviving an early onslaught. On any given night, both of these fighters can be world-beaters. Their problems lie in their inconsistent performances and lack of IQ in fights. In his last fight, Spann put himself in a triangle against Nikita Krylov, and when he fought Smith, he may have had nerves fighting in his first five-round fight and rushed for the finish. That mistake cost him that fight, and this time around, I don’t expect it to be the same. Spann is bigger, faster, and connects with more power. He averages nearly double the significant strikes, has a height (1 in.) and reaches (3 in.) advantage, and Smith won by submission in their last fight. Spann averages more takedowns and also hunts submissions, specifically guillotines. To quote Ryan Spann in his recent interview, “The Past is the Past,” and this weekend, he’ll show a more calculated approach and send Anthony Smith into retirement and behind the announcer’s table. 

Bet: Ryan Spann ML -140 | Spann by KO/TKO or submission -115 

Chikadze vs. Caceres Odds

Giga Chikadze -250, Alex Caceres +195

After almost two years on the shelf, Chikadze steps back into the octagon to fight long-time veteran “Bruce Lee Roy” Caceres. Similar to the main and co-main event, this matchup should create some fireworks. Both fighters are almost identical regarding their measurables (height/reach); they also share the same record in their last five fights (4-1). Caceres is fighting relatively quickly after coming off a victory over Daniel Pineda in June. The quick turnaround speaks to Caceres’ nature, who tends to resist and flow like water. After nearly 15 years in the UFC, Caceres’ game is finally coming together. With four wins by KO, seven by submission and 10 by decision, it’s clear Caceres knows how to win, yet he hasn’t always been the most consistent, as the beginning of his career started on a losing streak. It wasn’t until 2019 (seven years into his career) that Caceres would have a breakout year and go unbeaten for nearly two years. His streak ended after a nip-and-tuck affair with Sodiq Yuseff last year. He then bounced back against Julian Erosa and collected his fourth knockout win.

As much as I like Chikadze, his time on the shelf has almost left him forgotten. Chikadze, like Caceres, is a veteran of the sort but only has been competing in the UFC since 2019. He lost his Contender Series fight. It exposed the lack of experience with high-level opponents on the regional scene. His opponents outside the UFC were a combined 15-58, indicating that while he has been good in the UFC, his road to the big show was paved by tomato cans. Chikadze would win eight consecutive fights since he lost on Contender, winning three contests by knockout, four by decision, and one by submission. His last fight against Calvin Kattar would end his win streak Abruptly. He fought a five-round war that exposed the holes in Chikadze’s game. His best round is the first round, and as the fight goes on into deep waters, he seems to slow down and not have so much power behind his strikes. He also began to become predictable because outside of his striking, he didn’t have much variety in taking the fight to the canvas to score points.

Caceres has one KO loss on his record, back in 2015. He is very durable and athletic and, as mentioned before, is finally becoming the well-rounded martial artist he has been aiming to be. His Achilles heel used to be that he flowed so much like water that it would expose him. I don’t think that will happen this time because Giga has a gaping hole in his game in this matchup. As much as he says he’s been working his wrestling, fighters like Giga don’t look to grapple offensively. Instead, they get good at takedown defense and fight like hell to keep fights standing. His lack of defensive grappling got him in trouble against Kattar, and like Kattar, I believe that Bruce Leeroy is durable enough to take power from Giga and take this fight to places Giga can’t implement his striking. 

Bet: Alex Caceres ML +195 

Nakamura vs. Garcia Odds 

Rinya Nakamura -900, Fernie Garcia +575

Last year, when the UFC started “The Road to UFC,” It was a tournament that highlighted fighters in Asia. One of the brightest stars to be produced by the show was Nakamura. A world-class wrestler with dynamite in his hands, Nakamura finished all his fights in the first round. In seven professional fights, Nakamura has only been to the scorecards once. He averages nearly nine significant strikes landed per minute, four takedowns per 15 minutes and defends 100% of takedowns coming his way. The one flaw in Nakamura’s game is his tendency to get overaggressive and brawl. It can lead to him eventually getting knocked out, and this matchup against Garcia can be dangerous for Nakamura if he decides to brawl. Garcia debuted on the Contender Series; he gained a contract after a first-round finish victory and since has gone 0-2 officially in the UFC. He displays average boxing and the ability to wrestle but doesn’t seem to have it all together yet. With a literal puncher’s chance, I expect Garcia to be motivated because a loss here could get him cut, but overall, the wrestling and power from Nakamura should prove too much for Garcia. 

Bet: Rinya Nakamura ML and over 1.5 rounds +165

Blanchfield vs. Santos Odds 

Erin Blanchfield -150, Talita Santos +125

After Valentina Shevchenko lost the belt to Alexa Grasso, Blanchfield’s win over Jessica Andrade was brushed under the rug by the history-defining success of Grasso. Now, with the belt up for grabs in a rematch fight between former champion Shevchenko and Grasso. Blanchfield must continue to prove why she is the next in line for the belt. This time, she will try to impose her aggressive wrestling/jiu-jitsu style against former title challenger Santos. Santos made her debut on the Contender Series in 2019. She would lose that fight and win her next four, which landed her a title shot. She came close to making history against Shevchenko and perhaps laid the blueprint for beating the former champion. Like Blanchfield, Santos is aggressive and carries power in her strikes, similar to Andrade. She does possess a 78% takedown defense, but if she isn’t able to put out enough volume, she will frankly crumble under the pressure of Blanchfield. I’m going to give Blanchfield the nod here as I believe she has seen competition like Santos already and will have success again. 

Bet: Erin Blanchfield ML and over 1.5 rounds -110