Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
One of the best weeks of the NFL season is finally close: The first full DFS slate of games! We’ve got a massive 13-game slate in front of us for Week 1.
Before we get into things, we should recognize that FanDuel has changed their scoring. They are still half-point per reception, but they’ve added three bonus points for 100-yard receiving and rushing games. Additionally, you get three bonus points from your quarterback if he exceeds 300 passing yards.
This is a nice bonus to raise scoring, but I’m not sure how differently it will make us approach things. If we like a player, we like his ability to hit those benchmarks by default.
Let’s take a look at the Week 1 DFS slate.
Quarterbacks
Studs
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills ($9,200)
It’s not a hot take to put Josh Allen as the QB1 on the slate, since he’s not been outside the top two in scoring in the past three seasons. The Buffalo offense is without receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, but they still have enough weapons and Allen can still run the ball. In 2023, he was eighth in red zone attempts and tacked on 36 red zone carries with a whopping 15 rushing touchdowns. That last piece may not repeat, but we saw the Cardinals rank last in defensive DVOA in 2023, and I doubt that shifts in a massive way this season. They allowed the second-highest completion rate and the third-most passing touchdowns in 2023 while Allen was ninth in EPA per dropback. Receivers Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel to go along with tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox may not be the most terrifying group on paper, but Allen should be considered an elite option until he shows us differently.
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