NBA Best Bets of the Day (12/2)
Alex Christenson
The Week 7 main slate is officially in the books. We had some surprising results in the early window, with the Bengals and Titans blowing out the Ravens and Chiefs respectively, but the big favorites dominated in the late window.
There were plenty of noteworthy DFS performances to break down as well. Let’s dive into some of the biggest winners and losers from the Week 7 main slate, as well as some of the winning tournament lineups on DraftKings.
Winners
New York Jets
The biggest winner of the day by a sizable margin was the Jets. This franchise is the laughingstock of the league, and things looked bleak after Zach Wilson went down with an injury.
Enter Mike White. White was a fifth-round pick for the Patriots back in the 2018 NFL Draft, and he got his first taste of NFL action last week. He didn’t exactly make the most of it, finishing with two interceptions while averaging 4.23 adjusted yards per attempt.
White had another two picks against the Bengals, but he engineered one of the biggest upsets of the entire season. He also finished with three touchdowns and more than 400 passing yards, making him the first Jets’ quarterback to reach that threshold since Vinny Testaverde back in 2000.
White didn’t end up being particularly fantasy-relevant because no one played him, but he did make Michael Carter a huge factor. Carter finished with 32.2 DraftKings points at approximately 6.3% ownership, and he ended up being a key member for some winning lineups.
The Jets will probably go back to being the same old Jets next week, but they gave their fans a wonderful treat on Halloween.
A.J. Brown & Michael Pittman
The game between the Titans and Colts stood out as one of the best of the week from a fantasy perspective, and the No. 1 wide receivers on both squads did not disappoint.
Brown was playing without Julio Jones, and he took full advantage. He finished with 10 receptions, 155 yards, and a touchdown, resulting in 34.5 DKFP. Brown was owned at less than 15% on DraftKings, so he was another difference-maker in tournaments.
Pittman was a bit cheaper, so he ended up being a bit more popular. He was the second-highest owned receiver of the week, but he also came through for fantasy owners. He scored two touchdowns in the first quarter and ultimately finished with 30.6 DKFP.
Even though neither player was super contrarian, just 1.6% of lineups used both players in the Milly Maker this week. Those lineups undoubtedly did well.
Chris Godwin
Godwin was the chalk at receiver this week, but he has to be considered a winner. He was playing without Antonio Brown for the second straight week, and he racked up eight catches, 140 yards, and a touchdown. He led the team with 11 targets, while fellow “stud” wide receiver Mike Evans saw just four.
That said, Godwin’s big effort was not enough to get the Bucs a win. The Saints have now won three straight against Tom Brady, which is someone that hadn’t been done in more than a decade:
I guess that means we can consider the Saints winners as well.
Losers
D’Andre Swift
Sometimes fantasy football makes no sense. Swift has smashed weekly this year, and this was his first game of the year without Jamaal Williams. Williams has siphoned a solid number of touches away from Swift each week, so this felt like a smash spot.
You know what happened next. The Eagles walloped the Lions, which limited Swift to just 27 rushing yards and 24 receiving yards. He finished with just 10.1 DKFP at greater than 41% ownership, and he reached more than 60% ownership in certain high-stakes fields.
Kenneth Gainwell was a bonus loser in this contest. Most assumed that he would see a boost in value with Miles Sanders out of the lineup, but those people were incorrect. He was rostered at greater than 12% on DraftKings, so players who used either running back in this contest came away disappointed.
Jalen Hurts
Sticking with that contest, the game turning into a blowout also did the impossible: It turned Hurts into a fantasy bust. Hurts entered this contest as the most consistent quarterback in fantasy. It didn’t matter if he played well or poorly, he was going to finish with at least 20 DKFP.
Turns out, the game script where the Eagles score 44 points ended up being the one that got him. He didn’t record a single touchdown — rushing or passing — and finished with just 103 passing yards and 71 rushing yards.
Hurts was the highest-owned quarterback on DraftKings, so he let down a lot of fantasy players this week.
James Robinson
This one was just unfortunate luck. Robinson was in a potential smash spot against the Seahawks, who have been one of the worst teams in football against the run this season. He got off to a good start, picking up 22 rushing yards with one catch for 17 receiving yards, but he was forced to exit early with an injury.
There’s not much you can do if you were left holding the bag with Robinson on Sunday. Injuries are an unfortunate part of the game, and sometimes you just have to take the L. This was one of those weeks for Robinson owners.
Winning tournament lineups
NFL $3.5M FANTASY FOOTBALL MILLIONAIRE
This lineup featured a lot of the winners we highlighted earlier. They used a Colts’ stack with Carson Wentz and Pittman and brought it back with Brown for the Titans. They also used Carter, Godwin, and the always-reliable Cooper Kupp.
Elijah Mitchell was the other running back in this lineup, and he has been nothing short of fantastic when healthy this season. He’s now played five games for the 49ers, and he’s finished with at least 100 rushing yards and a touchdown in three of them. He’s going to garner much more attention moving forward barring a large price increase.
Pat Freiermuth rounds out this lineup, and he finished with four catches, 44 receiving yards, and a beautiful receiving touchdown. Freiermuth has been a nice source of value recently without Eric Ebron, so it’s a bit surprising he checked in with less than five percent ownership.
Finally, this lineup used the Seahawks defense, who scored a touchdown against Trevor Lawrence.
NFL $1.5M WILDCAT
The Wildcat features a much smaller field than the Milly Maker, but it’s still significantly larger than some of the true high-stakes tournaments. That means you’re going to need a great lineup, but it doesn’t need to be perfect.
This lineup featured a ton of overlap with the winner of the Milly Maker, with both lineups featuring Wentz, Carter, Brown, Pittman, and Godwin. The big difference in this team was the omission of Kupp, which allowed them to pay up for Kyle Pitts at tight end. That decision didn’t work out — Pitts was one of the biggest disappointments of the day — but the core of this lineup was still good enough to take home first place.
This team also got a huge performance from the Eagles defense, who finished with six sacks, one turnover, one touchdown, and six points allowed. This lineup only ended up winning by approximately 1.5 points, and the team that finished in second only got 13.0 DKFP from the Seahawks D. Predicting defenses is impossible, but they can often swing a ton of money in NFL DFS.
$1.8M NFL Sunday Million
As usual, the FanDuel winner was quite different from the DraftKings’ winners. There are only three players in common between this lineup and the Milly Maker winner on DraftKings: Carter, Brown, and Godwin.
This team was part of the 20.7% of the field that used Josh Allen at quarterback, which ended up being a wise decision. Allen has historically owned the Dolphins, and he put together another monster performance this week.
This user stacked Allen with Cole Beasley, who had a productive 10 catches for 110 yards. That wasn’t a huge performance, but it was more than good enough at his moderate price tag.
No one else in this lineup had a true ceiling game, which highlights just how big Carter was this week. His performance at minimal cost and ownership made him the definition of a slate-breaker.
