Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We are somehow already onto Week 3 of the NFL season, and this week’s DFS slate is very, very interesting. Week 1 presented an insane amount of value, while Week 2 reverted back to normal a bit.
However, Week 3 offers plenty once again, so let’s see which players stand out.
Quarterback | Week 3 DFS values
Trevor Lawrence vs. Arizona Cardinals ($5,500 on DK)
Through two games in his NFL career, Trevor Lawrence has been … well, pretty bad. He has just four touchdown passes against five interceptions and is sporting one of the highest percentages of uncatchable passes. Now one reason behind that is the fact that he is tied for the league-lead in deep passing attempts (13), which does present some upside, especially in a matchup against the Cardinals. Arizona just got torched by Kirk Cousins in Week 2 — through two weeks, they are allowing a 5.9% passing touchdown rate. If the Jaguars can actually get into the red zone, things could go well here, as opposing offenses are scoring touchdowns on 80% of their red zone trips against the Cardinals. There is also always sneaky rushing upside for quarterbacks against the Cardinals, who play man coverage at one of the highest rates in football. In 2020, Arizona surrendered a league-high 28.3 rushing yards per game to opposing signal callers and they just allowed 35 rushing yards to Cousins. With Arizona playing fast and going no-huddle 28.5% of the time (second-highest rate), opposing offenses tend to benefit. I expect 40-plus pass attempts from Lawrence in this game with some added rushing upside.
Justin Fields @ Cleveland Browns
($6,500 on FD)
With Andy Dalton (knee) listed as week-to-week and unlikely to play in Week 3, Justin Fields is set to get his first career start Sunday against the Browns. Cleveland was expected to be a strong defense heading into the season, but they’ve underwhelmed through two weeks. Sure, they faced Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in Week 1, but they just allowed 125 yards, a passing touchdown and a 15-yard rushing score in one half of play to Tyrod Taylor. Fields presents a tremendous combination of value and upside this week, as he is priced as the QB27 on FanDuel. The box score doesn’t tell the entire story last week, as Fields finished with just 60 passing yards on 6-of-13 passing. However, Allen Robinson dropped an absolute dime from Fields that should have resulted in a 20-plus yard score, while Darnell Mooney also dropped a 15- to 20-yarder. Meanwhile, in just over a quarter of action, Fields rushed the ball 10 times, which gives him a nice combination of floor and ceiling. And don’t look now but the Browns have allowed rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks in consecutive weeks.
Running back | Week 3 DFS values
Clyde Edwards-Helaire vs. Los Angeles Chargers
($4,800 on DK)
Look, I get it. Clyde Edwards-Helaire hasn’t lived up to the hype since being drafted at the end of the first round in 2020 and that continued Sunday night when he rushed for 46 yards on 13 carries and fumbled late in the game. Edwards-Helaire has just three receptions through two weeks and has yet to find the end zone — as a result, his DK price tag has plummeted to $4,800, putting him below guys like Devin Singletary, James White and Sony Michel. I totally understand if you don’t have confidence in him this week and if he can’t produce here, it might not happen for him. A whopping 47.7% of the yardage surrendered by the Chargers this season has come via the run, the highest rate in football. They just allowed both Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard to combine for 180 rushing yards and two touchdowns, while now allowing 5.6 yards per carry, the second-most in the league. Assuming last week’s costly fumble doesn’t result in a benching, Edwards-Helaire should see 15-17 opportunities, which may be enough for him in this matchup and at his price.
Saquon Barkley vs. Atlanta Falcons
($6,000 on FD)
It is weird to see Saquon Barkley so cheap on both sites, especially over on FanDuel. He is only $100 more than Cordarrelle Patterson ahead of Week 3. But there are definitely reasons to be encouraged. In Week 2, Barkley logged 84% of the snaps, while handling 15 of the 20 running back touches. He reminded us of how good he is with a 41-yard run, while I thought his cutting and lateral agility were strong Thursday night. Now he faces an awful Atlanta defense that is bottom-10 in receptions and targets per game to opposing backfields so far this season. The Falcons are also allowing a healthy 2.87 points per drive, good for the seventh-most in the NFL. If Barkley can’t get it going in this matchup, I’ll officially be worried.
Wide receiver | Week 3 DFS values
Marvin Jones vs. Arizona Cardinals
($4,900 on DK)
We might as well pair Lawrence with his top receiver, right? And yes, Marvin Jones is Jacksonville’s top wideout. Through two games, the league’s most underrated receiver has hauled in 11-of-20 targets for 132 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He’s the WR16 in fantasy and continues to operate as Lawrence’s favorite target, especially when the Jaguars get into scoring position. Jones is tied for the league-lead with four end zone targets so far this season and in a matchup with Robert Alford and this exploitable Arizona secondary, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he found the end zone again. I have zero idea why Jones is under $5,000 on DraftKings but he is an easy value play ahead of this enticing contest.
Michael Pittman @ Tennessee Titans
($5,600 on FD)
Michael Pittman is coming off a tremendous contest against the Rams in Week 2, catching eight of his 12 targets for 123 yards. He made plays all over the field in this game and now gets a much better matchup with a Tennessee defense that has surrendered the second-most fantasy points and receptions per game to opposing wide receivers. They have allowed opposing number-one receivers to absolutely torch them through two weeks, and while Pittman certainly isn’t on the level of DeAndre Hopkins or Tyler Lockett, he is clearly the top receiver in this offense. The Colts quarterback situation makes things less appealing but even if it is Jacob Eason under center for Indianapolis, this matchup is so good that I think Pittman can still produce, even if Carson Wentz is inactive.
Tight end | Week 3 DFS values
Pat Freiermuth vs. Cincinnati Bengals
($3,000 on DK)
At the moment, there aren’t many glaring value tight ends on the slate, but if you are playing in tournaments, I don’t mind giving Pat Freiermuth a look, especially if the Steelers are without Diontae Johnson for this game. With Eric Ebron dealing with a hamstring injury during last week’s practice sessions, Freiermuth ended up drawing the start and running more routes than Ebron. He caught all four of his targets for 36 yards and would likely be even more involved if Johnson can’t suit up for Pittsburgh. And with Ben Roethlisberger getting the ball out of his hands so quickly, the tight ends could definitely benefit.
Tyler Higbee vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
($5,500 on FD)
While Tyler Higbee isn’t an absurd value, I do believe he should be priced a bit higher over on FanDuel. Both Mike Gesicki and Logan Thomas are more expensive than him, which is wrong in my opinion. Higbee caught his only target for eight yards last week, but better days are ahead. He once again played every single snap for the Rams and ran a pass route on 25 of Matthew Stafford’s 32 dropbacks on Sunday. This Los Angeles offense looks borderline elite with Stafford under center and Higbee is going to have productive games. It could easily be this week in what should be a relatively high-scoring game. Don’t overreact to last week’s down performance. All the positive signs are there with Higbee.
