NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds

Part of the beauty of the NFL can be its brutal nature with injuries or players being written off for poor performance. This naturally leads to the proverbial comeback story and can see a player rise up from the ashes like a phoenix. Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott fits this description after breaking his ankle in 2020 and has opened as the betting favorite for 2021 NFL Comeback Player of the Year at places like BetMGM Sportsbook.

Prescott is  the +220 favorite for odds to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year and will also try to lead the Cowboys back to the playoffs. Prescott broke his ankle trying to scramble in a Week 5 game from the Giants and missed the remainder of the season.

Injuries seem to be a common theme for the most of the top betting candidates for Comeback Player of the Year odds with the next four options each suffering their own ailments in 2020. Saquon Barkley (+900) is coming off a torn ACL, Christian McCaffrey (+800) had a high-ankle sprain and Joe Burrow (+800) along with Nick Bosa (+1400) are each coming off a torn ACL.

The main player on the list for Comeback POY odds that isn’t there because of injury is Kansas City Chiefs offensive lineman Laurent Duvernay-Tardiff (+900). The Canadian lineman opted out of the 2020 season to continue his studies in the medical field and assist with efforts in dealing with COVID-19. His narrative of sacrificing a portion of his playing career to give back to others is just one of the many great comeback stories for NFL players in 2021.

Let’s break down why Prescott is the betting favorite for this award and a player that could challenge the Cowboys QB for this accolade:

Who will win NFL Comeback Player of the Year?

Odds are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook.

Why is Dak Prescott favored in NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds? 

“Don’t call it a comeback” for Dak Prescott, because the stats will tell you he’s been here for years. It may be hard to believe, but Prescott is now entering his sixth season as the quarterback for the Dallas Cowboys and missed games for the first time in his career after a somewhat fluky ankle injury. The signal-caller has been ferociously rehabbing (hip-thrusts and all) in the offseason and should be in a great position to lead the Cowboys offense again.

The two main reasons why Prescott (+220) has the inside track for NFL Comeback Player of the Year are potential performance and the narrative. The former being that the last full season we saw of Prescott was in 2019 and he nearly threw for 5,000 yards to go with 30 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. In the five games he played in 2020, he was on pace for nearly 6,000 passing yards and 27 touchdown passes and was balling despite the Cowboys defensive ineptness. While those 2020 stats were a 16-game projection, it’s not outlandish to think he could toss over 5,000 passing yards and 30 passing touchdowns again in 2021 with the offensive weapons at his disposal. Having the receiving trio of Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup should make it very easy for Prescott to rack up the stats. 

The narrative is likely the bigger reason for Dak’s potential in Comeback POY odds. Obviously, the ankle injury is tough to bounce back from and would usually be enough to give Prescott an edge, but the Cowboys quarterback also allowed himself to be vulnerable in 2020 and shared some of his struggles with depression and mental health. With millions of people across the world dealing with a lot of the same issues, the general public feels like they can relate more to Prescott now after he shared this with the media.

At this point, it’s Prescott’s award to lose now that the general public has a rooting interest in him to succeed. However, his shoulder injury should be heavily concerning for anyone looking to invest in the quarterback as he could be on the sideline if his injury continues to flare up. If his shoulder is ok, his stats will also still need to be on point in 2021 to keep him as the favorite for NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds and there are a lot of worthy contenders.

Long shot pick for NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds 

New Orleans Saints QB Jameis Winston at +1200 

Before you immediately close out this page and/or throw your phone at the wall, hear me out on why betting on Jameis Winston for NFL Comeback Player of the Year could be a wise bet. 

The former No.1 overall pick has been somewhat of a laughingstock among NFL bettors after his performance in 2019 broke records for all the wrong reasons. Winston managed to have over 5,000 passing yards and 30 touchdowns through the air that season but coupled those with 30 interceptions. The Bucs finished with an underwhelming 7-9 that year, as Tampa was consistently undermined by Winston’s exploits.

Now, after having a full year in head coach Sean Payton’s system in New Orleans, Winston has a great opportunity to remodel his reputation and finally live up to his potential. With Drew Brees retiring, Winston has been named the starter for the Saints over Taysom Hill in 2021 and the former Seminole is basically walking into a turnkey offense. Although he won’t have a physical receiver like Michael Thomas for the first portion of the season, he’ll still have some weapons like Marquez Callaway and Tre’Quan Smith to work with and keep the chains moving. It also doesn’t hurt that he’ll also have the services of RB Alvin Kamara to dump passes off to when the play breaks down and there’s nowhere to go with the football. That luxury didn’t really exist in his five years in a Tampa Bay uniform.

Nearly everyone and their dog is expecting the Saints as a team to regress in 2021, but it’s like we forgot that New Orleans has shown they can still win games without Brees at QB. He missed four games in 2020 and five games in 2019 but the Saints went 8-1 in those contests. This isn’t Payton’s first rodeo of having to duct tape a new quarterback on the fly and still have regular-season success.

If Winston even shows a shred of competency this season while clicking on offense with his receivers, he could leap Prescott very quickly for NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds. At +1200, it’s worth a stab at that price.

Understanding NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds

When betting on an NFL Futures market like Comeback POY odds, it’s important to know what the odds mean beside each option and how to bet on it.

After you’ve set up a sportsbook account and deposited money to wager with, the betting odds for NFL Comeback Player of the Year should look something like this:

Dak Prescott +170
Saquon Barkley +600
Christian McCaffrey +650
Jameis Winston +1800

The numbers with plus signs beside each player represent American odds, which means it’s how much profit you’d make based on $100 bets. With Dak Prescott having the lowest number at +170, he’s considered the betting favorite for this market.

If you think Prescott will win the 2021 NFL Comeback Player of the Year award and you bet $100 on him and it happens, you’d get $270 refunded to your sportsbook account — your original $100 bet is returned, and you would be rewarded with $170 in profit.

Let’s say you think Jameis Winston will win this award in 2021 and you wagered $100 on the Saints quarterback, you’d get $1900 awarded to you if he was to win — your $100 is returned and a prize of $1,800 is given to you for your winning pick. 

To find out how much you’d win based on what you bet, check out our Parlay Calculator.