NFL best bets for Week 4

I tend to bet early in the week — usually Sunday night or Monday morning — in the expectation that lines will move as the week progresses.

That was the case this week: Sunday, I put 15 early plays into our FTN Bet Tracker. (That’s where you can find all my NFL sides, totals and player props.)

To access the FTN Bet Tracker, use the promo code FREEDMAN to get 20% off your FTN subscription.

As of writing (early Thursday night), 10 of the bets have moved in my direction based on the consensus lines, while five have moved against me.

I’m not bragging, but a 10-5 midweek value/loss distribution pleases me. It seems likely that I will enjoy significant closing line value: That’s the functionality of betting early.

Given the line movement we’ve already seen, the following plays are my current best bets — the ones I think offer the most value right now.

Game odds via our Week 4 betting odds page.

Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys Week 4 odds

Bet: Panthers +4.5
Odds: -110, BetMGM

I first bet this Sunday night at +5.5, but I think this line offers value all the way to +3.5.

In this matchup, we have two of the league’s three teams that are 3-0 against the spread.

To this point in the season, I seem to have massively underestimated the Cowboys. Maybe that’s because I’m a Cowboys fan and my love-hate relationship with this team clouds my judgment. Regardless, I am a sad 0-3 betting against the Cowboys this year.

But I am 3-0 betting on the Panthers. I feel I have a good read on this team. Say all you want about their opening schedule of Jets, Saints, and Texans. They haven’t just won each game. They’ve also covered each game. And they haven’t just covered. They’ve covered by an average of +8.83 points per game.

The Panthers are exactly what they look like: A good (maybe elite) defense with a good-enough offense.

The sample is small, and the competition has not been fierce, but the Panthers defense is No. 1 in the league in yards per play (3.8) and time (2:15), plays (4.6), and yards (17.2) per drive, as well as pass DVOA (-31.4%) and run DVOA (-51.4%), per Football Outsiders. Overall, the Panthers are No. 2 in points allowed per game (10.0) and per drive (0.94).

And then on offense they are No. 14 in yards per play (5.7), No. 15 in yards per drive (34.2), No. 16 in points per game (23.0), and No. 18 in points per drive (2.09). Right now, Sam Darnold is playing career-best football with a 68.2% completion rate and 8.4 adjusted yards per attempt.

The Panthers on both sides of the ball have clear correlation between their underlying metrics and points.

That’s not the case with the Cowboys.

On offense, we know who the Cowboys are: They are legit, ranking top-10 in overall yards passing (832) and yards rushing (418).

But this defense is fake. Fake, fake, fake. It’s No. 31 in overall yards passing (995) — but No. 1 in interceptions (six). It’s No. 25 in yards per drive (37.7) — but No. 1 in total turnovers (eight).

The Cowboys defense is living on luck right now, and eventually luck runs out.

Why shouldn’t it run out in this game? — especially given that the Panthers have four extra days to rest and prepare compared to the Cowboys?

Underdogs are 7-2 ATS against the Cowboys under head coach Mike McCarthy, and Panthers head coach Matt Rhule is 9-4 ATS as an underdog and a wonderful 8-1 ATS on the road.

If the Cowboys cover this game, I swear I will never bet against them again for the rest of the season … until next week.

Pick: Panthers +4.5

Miami Dolphins vs. Indianapolis Colts Week 4 odds

Bet: Dolphins -1.5
Odds: -115, FanDuel Sportsbook

I first bet this Sunday night at -2.5 to be sure that I locked it in under -3. The line has since moved against me, dropping down to -2 across the industry and even -1.5 at a couple of books.

Given that the move hasn’t been significant, I’m not too worried about it.

I could talk about the offensive and defensive numbers of these two teams, but really this bet to me comes down to two factors.

I want to bet against Colts quarterback Carson Wentz.
I want to be on Dolphins head coach Brian Flores.

In 2017, before suffering a season-ending (and perhaps career-altering) knee injury, Wentz was a playmaking MVP candidate. Since then, however, Wentz has been mediocre at best, and in the post-hype/injury era of 2018 to now, Wentz faders are 28-15 ATS.

And now Wentz is playing on two injured ankles.

As for Flores, let’s remove his 0-4 ATS record from his first month with the Dolphins, when he was breaking down the roster so that he could rebuild it. From Week 5 of the 2019 season to now, Flores is 22-9 ATS overall and 11-3 ATS at home.

The Dolphins are without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (ribs, IR), but as we saw last week the dropoff from Tagovailoa to backup Jacoby Brissett is minimal.

Plus, Brissett is going up against his former team.

And I’m never one to pass on a good #RevengeGame.

Pick: Dolphins -1.5

Minnesota Vikings vs. Cleveland Browns Week 4 odds

Bet: Vikings +2.5
Odds: -110, FanDuel Sportsbook

I first bet this Sunday night at +1.5 in case the line crossed over zero — but instead it has moved against me.

This is the second straight week I’ve bet the Vikings early as short home favorites only to see uncaptured value materialize later in the week.

Oh well.

I think this game should be a pick ’em, so I was fine betting it at +1.5, and the line hasn’t yet reached the key number of +3, so the movement isn’t of massive significance — but it’s worth nothing. Right now, the market is unenthusiastic about the Vikings.

And I get it: They lost Weeks 1-2 in heartbreaking fashion on an overtime fumble by running back Dalvin Cook and a last-second missed field goal by kicker Greg Joseph. Cook (ankle) missed Week 3 and might not be 100% healthy if he plays this week. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has played well this year, hitting career-high marks with a 73.9% completion rate and 9.1 adjusted yards per attempt — but he’s eminently unsexy.

And yet all of that likely means that the Vikings — who are just a couple of random plays away from being 3-0 — are undervalued this week.

Underdogs are 8-5 ATS against the Browns under head coach Kevin Stefanski, and the Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer (68-46-1 ATS overall) is on the positive side of some of his historical splits.

Mike Zimmer at home: 35-21-1 ATS
Mike Zimmer outside division: 49-28-1 ATS
Mike Zimmer at home outside division: 24-11-1 ATS

In this exact same spot last week — underdogs at home against non-divisional opponents — the Vikings beat the Seahawks 30-17.

Yes, I’m minorly terrified that the Vikings are No. 31 in the league with 6.8 yards allowed per play — and it’s potentially problematic that Stefanski knows Zimmer well, given that he was an offensive coach (tight ends, running backs, quarterbacks, then finally offensive coordinator) on Zimmer’s staff for six years.

But Zimmer also knows Stefanski — and I’m willing to bet that he has ideas for how to stop the Browns ground game.

Pick: Vikings +2.5

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Denver Broncos vs. Baltimore Ravens Week 4 odds

Bet: Broncos +1
Odds: -110, FanDuel Sportsbook

I first bet this Sunday night at +1. Since then, it has moved to -1 at most sportsbooks — but it has moved back to +1 at FanDuel, so there’s some lineshopping value there.

Several sharp bettors I know are on the Ravens, and that makes me a little nervous, especially since Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is 14-8 ATS on the road and 4-1 ATS as a road dog.

But the Ravens are not their former selves, in my opinion.

Jackson is still playing well, and the offense is still a top unit, ranking No. 4 with 6.6 yards per play. But the defense has lost players to injuries and is now diminished, ranking No. 27 with 6.2 yards per play allowed.

The Ravens are 1-2 ATS. They lost outright to the Raiders in Week 1 and were fortunate to beat the Chiefs and Lions in the final minutes of Weeks 2-3.

In the Broncos, they face an opponent who is 3-0 ATS and has covered by an average of +10.2 points per game. The Broncos this year have made a habit of getting ahead and then burying their opponents: They have won every game this year by at least 10 points.

If the Ravens fall behind in this game, I doubt the Broncos will let them come back.

Even without their three best running backs, the Ravens are No. 1 in the league with 5.7 yards per carry — but the Broncos are No. 10 in run defense with just 3.6 yards per rush attempt allowed, whereas the Chiefs (5.4) and Raiders (4.8) rank in the bottom five and the Lions (4.2) are in the bottom half.

I doubt the Ravens will be able to run on the Broncos at will.

And the Ravens will likely struggle in the passing game, as the Broncos are No. 1 in the league with a 3.9 AY/A allowed.

On offense, the Broncos have an above-average game-managing quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater, who has played career-best football to this point in the year with a 76.8% completion rate, 9.5 AY/A, and no turnovers.

With Bridgewater keeping the offense on track, the Broncos are No. 1 in time (3:40), No. 2 in plays (6.87), No. 7 in yards (38.7), and No. 9 in points (2.53) per drive. Overall, they are No. 12 with 5.9 yards per play.

With a defense that ranks No. 2 with 4.1 yards per play allowed, the Broncos should challenge the Ravens offense. And on offense, the Broncos should be good enough to move the ball against the weakened Ravens defense.

Bridgewater is 38-14 ATS for his career and 24-7 ATS as an underdog.

Pick: Broncos +1

Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Week 4 odds

Bet: Packers -6.5
Odds: -110, PointsBet

I bet this Sunday night at -6, before the Packers played on Sunday Night Football, but I still like it at -6.5. In fact, I would bet it to -7.

I’m a simple person, which means I bet on Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers at home. For his career, Rodgers is 63-36-4 ATS at Lambeau Field.

I’m not going to overthink this.

Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin is a robust 41-21-1 ATS as an underdog — and 10-4 ATS as an underdog when coming off a loss in which he was favored.

But much of that record was accumulated before quarterback Ben Roethlisberger turned into the worst veteran starter in the league. This year, Roethlisberger — despite having a strong collection of wide receivers and tight ends — is No. 27 with 5.6 adjusted yards per attempt. (For context: Outclassed Texans rookie third-rounder Davis Mills is No. 26 with a mark of 5.8.)

I am highly skeptical that the Steelers with their lethargic and bloated offense will be able to keep pace with the Packers at home.

Pick: Packers -6.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots Week 4 odds

Bet: Buccaneers -6.5
Odds: -110, BetMGM

I first bet this Sunday night at -5.5. It’s now -7 across the market but -6.5 at BetMGM.

This is a #RevengeGame for Bucs quarterback Tom Brady and tight end Rob Gronkowski. Hell, it’s even a #RevengeGame for wide receiver Antonio Brown. There’s no way they’re not dominating this game in New England.

The Patriots defense looks good on paper: It’s No. 3 in the league with 4.6 adjusted yards per pass attempt allowed and No. 7 with 4.7 yards allowed per play.

But these numbers might not be representative, as the Patriots have had a toilet paper-soft quarterback schedule, facing Tua Tagovailoa in Week 1, Zach Wilson in Week 2, and Jameis Winston in Week 3, all of whom are outside the top 20 in AY/A: Winston is No. 23 (6.9), Tagovailoa is No. 26 (6.1), and Wilson is No. 33 (3.4).

The Bucs are No.1 in the league with 34.3 points per game and 141 pass attempts overall. I expect the Bucs to test the Patriots relentlessly at all levels of the field with their passing attack.

On offense, the Patriots are underwhelming. They’re No. 27 with 4.8 yards per play, and rookie quarterback Mac Jones is No. 29 with a 5.4 AY/A.

Ideally, the Patriots would be able to run the ball to protect their young quarterback, but last year the Bucs were No. 1 in the league in run defense, and this year they’re No. 3. The Patriots won’t be able to run on the Bucs.

And I doubt they’ll be able to throw on them. The Bucs are without significant pass game defenders: Edge rusher Jason Pierre-Paul (hand/shoulder) and cornerbacks Jamel Dean (knee) and Sean Murphy-Bunting (elbow, IR) are all likely to be out. Even so, I doubt we will see Jones do anything more than dink and dunk.

Since 2003, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is 169-113-9 ATS — but he’s just 20-18 ATS without Brady. And this year he is 1-2 ATS and 0-2 ATS when not facing a rookie quarterback.

As for Brady and the Bucs, they are 1-2 ATS this year but 7-4 ATS since their Week 13 bye last year.

After the 34-24 Week 3 loss to the Rams, I expect Brady to be manically sharp this week. For his career, Brady is 40-14 ATS off a loss. Last year with the Bucs, he was 4-0 ATS off a loss.

It’s hard to imagine Brady not smashing in this spot.

Pick: Buccaneers -6.5