Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Each week in this space, I’m going to take a trip through the FTN air yards tool to find some of the most interesting and actionable takeaways for fantasy football.
Air yards represent the distance the ball travels from the line of scrimmage to the intended target. Regardless of whether a pass was complete or incomplete, air yards measure the amount of ground covered from passer to pass catcher. It does not account for the yards after catch on a completed pass. When calculating air yards, it’s important to keep in mind that not all air yards are created equal. An on-target throw is much more valuable than an uncatchable ball, even if the air yards are greater. Although air yards are not inductive of fantasy success, it’s a great way to calculate opportunity. The Weighted Opportunity Rating incorporates players’ share of team targets and the percentage of team air yards. Fantasy scoring is difficult to predict; however, opportunities are usually a stick stat and can translate to current and future output. Every week I will go position by position, highlighting the leaders in air yards. You can access the free air yards tool at FTN Fantasy.
Week 9 Air Yards Leaders
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
(466 air yards, fantasy QB2)
Patrick Mahomes had a career game Monday night, leading the Chiefs to an overtime 20-17 victory over the Titans. He set a franchise record in pass attempts (68) and completions (43) in a game while throwing for a season-high 446 yards. In a mostly trailing gamescript, the Chiefs wanted to keep the ball in Mahomes’s hand as much as possible. In fact, Mahomes also led the team’s rushing attempts (6), rushing yards (63), and rushing touchdowns (1).
Runner-Up: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (429 air yards, fantasy QB13)
Season Leader: Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2,697 air yards, fantasy QB12)
Wide Receiver
Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders
(194 air yards, fantasy WR1)
After somehow catching only one pass for 3 yards in Week 8, Davante Adams had his best game as Raider last week, logging a season-high in targets (17), receptions (10), receiving yards (146) and touchdowns (2). What was most shocking is Adams had nearly all of his production come in the first half with one catch for zero yards in the third and fourth quarters. With Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow placed on the injured reserve, Adams should continue posting big numbers for the rest of the season.
Runner-Up: Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills (187 air yards, fantasy WR19)
Season Leader: Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins (1,171 air yards, fantasy WR1)
Tight End
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
(208 air yards, fantasy TE25)
For the sixth time in eight games, Kyle Pitts failed to reach 30 receiving yards catching two passes for 27 yards and no touchdowns. Although Pitts’ box score doesn’t jump out, he tied for a season-high seven targets, with many of them coming downfield. Mariota barely missed Pitts on a few big plays, which would have resulted in a much better day. Although Pitts has not lived up to his draft day expectations, his Week 9 usage was encouraging and bodes well for the future.
Runner-Up: Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs (111 air yards, fantasy TE3)
Season Leader: Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens (681 air yards, fantasy TE2)
Running Back
Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots
(30 air yards, fantasy RB9)
Damien Harris was ruled out Sunday with an illness, once again ceding the backfield to Rhamondre Stevenson. However, unlike the previous game without Harris, Stevenson saw less than 75% of the offensive snaps (73%), losing ten carries to J.J. Taylor. He had a modest 60 yards on the ground but saved his day with a receiving touchdown. Stevenson also led the team in targets (7), catching three passes for 10 yards. With Harris expected to return after the Patriots’ Week 10 bye, the backfield will likely go back to a timeshare.
Runner-Up: Nyheim Hines, Buffalo Bills (26 air yards, fantasy RB72)
Season Leader: Breece Hall, New York Jets (147 air yards, fantasy RB18)
