Negative TD Regression Candidates for 2022

Touchdowns lead to the biggest point swings in both real and fantasy football, but the box scores don’t always tell the full story. TDs are high-variance, which can lead to some players scoring significantly more than expected (see below) or significantly less (see Wednesday’s article).

So which players are expected to see regression (e.g., score fewer TDs in the direction of standard expectation) in the TD department for 2022? These stats come from the FTN Fantasy Expected Fantasy Points tool.

Note that the stats below are for Weeks 1-17 from 2021 and do not include Week 18.

QBs Who Should Throw Fewer TDs in 2022

• Joe Burrow: 34 actual TDs, 30 expected
• Jameis Winston: 14 actual, 10 expected

Not many QBs exceeded their passing TD expectation last year. Burrow leads the way after throwing more than 10% additional TDs than expected — but with a young receiving corps and an improved offensive line, perhaps he will exceed expectations again in 2022.

Winston didn’t play the whole year — and he didn’t throw too many TDs anyway — but he did throw for 5 TDs in Week 1 on just 14 completions and then he threw 4 TDs in Week 5 on just 15 completions.

To see how every QB in the league met (or didn’t meet) TD expectations, be sure to check out the FTN Fantasy Expected Fantasy Points tool.

RBs Who Should Score Fewer TDs in 2022

• Austin Ekeler: 18 actual, 11 expected
• James Conner: 16 actual, 10 expected
• Damien Harris: 14 actual, 9 expected
• Jonathan Taylor: 20 actual, 16 expected
• Joe Mixon: 16 actual, 12 expected
• Cordarrelle Patterson: 11 actual, 7 expected
• Derrick Henry: 10 actual, 7 expected

There are three RBs currently going in the first round who find themselves on this list: Ekeler, Taylor and Henry. Mixon and Conner will also cost you a premium draft pick this year.

Of course, many of these players are elite talents, so it’s not a surprise that they would score more than expected.

The names to be most worried about from the list above are Harris and Patterson, who may both lose significant work to teammates in 2022. 

To see how every RB in the league met (or didn’t meet) TD expectations, be sure to check out the FTN Fantasy Expected Fantasy Points tool.

WRs Who Should Score Fewer TDs in 2022

• Deebo Samuel: 13 actual, 7 expected
• Adam Thielen: 10 actual, 6 expected
• Mike Evans: 12 actual, 8 expected
• Cooper Kupp: 15 actual, 12 expected
• Byron Pringle: 5 actual, 2 expected
• DK Metcalf: 12 actual, 9 expected
• Elijah Moore: 6 actual, 4 expected
• Ja’Marr Chase: 13 actual, 11 expected

Samuel has long been a 2022 bust candidate, and his crazy TD rate is a reason why — He scored nearly twice as many TDs as expected. He’s still a solid fantasy asset, but the TDs are definitely going to come down in 2022. 

Thielen has been nothing but a TD machine in recent years, but surely it has to slow down at some point — right? Right??

Like we saw with the RB list, many of these names are elite talents: Samuel, Evans, Kupp, Metcalf, Chase and maybe even breakout candidate Elijah Moore. It’s not shocking they scored more than expected, and perhaps they will again. But it’s worth noting that it will, at least, be an uphill battle for these players to match their 2021 TD totals.

To see how every WR in the league met (or didn’t meet) TD expectations, be sure to check out the FTN Fantasy Expected Fantasy Points tool.

TEs Who Should Score Fewer TDs in 2022

• Travis Kelce: 8 actual, 5 expected
• Dawson Knox: 9 actual, 7 expected
• C.J. Uzomah: 5 actual, 3 expected
• George Kittle: 6 actual, 4 expected
• Pat Freiermuth: 7 actual, 5 expected

As this data is based purely on 2021 stats, Kelce may actually be in line for more TDs in 2022 thanks to the departure of Tyreek Hill. 

Knox is a player many in the fantasy community fade because of his TD reliance, but it’s interesting that his expected TDs (7) is actually still quite high. Yes, he exceeded expectations, but his expectations were great to begin with.

A nam too be concerned about here is George Kittle. He’s an elite talent, so scoring more than expected is no surprise, but only 4 expected TDs for a top-five fantasy TE is a little concerning. 

To see how every TE in the league met (or didn’t meet) TD expectations, be sure to check out the FTN Fantasy Expected Fantasy Points tool.