Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Welcome to “The Breakdown,” a deep game-by-game breakdown that covers game theory as well as player/game analysis for the full NFL weekend slate … only this one is for the three-game Week 12 Thanksgiving slate. If you have been with me from a past life, welcome back! I know there are many game-by-game articles out there, so I truly appreciate the loyalty.
For those that are new, here is a basic guide. The “CORE” plays are for a DFS player that is building a single entry or three-max GPP lineup. The “core” plays can be used in cash, but I always send out a Sunday a.m. “cash core” update (I put it at the bottom of this article) to narrow down the player pool even further. Most optimal cash lineups will be centered around opportunity opened up by injury, so no sense of spending hours tinkering. Reserve your cash game entries with the plan of modifying on Sunday morning.
I encourage you to read the whole article, as there is a lot of roster construction and other strategy tips you will miss. I also have on-going jokes and other fun things I slip in to see who is reading and who is not. OK, enough with my BS, let’s get into the Thanksgiving slate.
#FTNDaily
All odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook as of the start of the week.
“GPP only” plays that are not in BOLD are for MME only. BOLD CORE plays are the players I will have the most exposure to.
HOU -3. O/U: 51.5
HOU: 27.25 | DET: 24.25
Pace and playcalling
After an 0-4 start with Bill O’Brien, Houston is 3-3 under Romeo Crennel. They have played at about the same deliberate pace (21st with BOB, 24th with Crennel), but have gone a tad more pass-heavy (T-third at 61%, seventh with BOB). The wind game in Cleveland is pulling both the pace and pass rate down a bit, but it is essentially the same offense from a pace and playcalling perspective.
Houston passes on first down, which has been a knock on them in the past. They were third with BOB (60%) and fifth with Crennel (57%). They have been very effective when they pass early, averaging 9.4 yards per pass play (64% success) compared to 4.4 yards per carry on first down (43% success). Detroit ranks 29th (rush) and 27th (pass) in first-down success rate against.
With Matthew Stafford being so bad, possibly due to the thumb injury, I wanted to check if they slowed up in Carolina, despite playing behind. They normally play fast (fifth in neutral, 26.2 seconds per play), and played even faster in Week 11 (fourth-fastest). As I like to say, “speed does not equal efficiency,” and Detroit proved that. Despite the quick pace, they ran a pathetic 55 plays, converting on 21% of third downs (3.4 yards per play). It was one of the worst offensive performances I have seen this season.
These teams average exactly 22.7 PPG on offense per game and are separated by just 1.5 PPG on defense, with Detroit allowing 28.7 PPG (29th) and Houston 27.2. They are also tied with 2.68 points per drive allowed (29th).
Houston and Detroit are two of just five teams allowing more than 40 yards per drive, with Houston 32nd at 41.55 yards per drive.
This sets up well for the Texans, who (ignoring the Cleveland weather game) has averaged 31 PPG in their last three road games. Detroit is a perfect 4-0 to the OVER at home, compared to 2-4 on the road. They give up 32.5 PPG in Michigan, compared to 26.2 away, and games in Detroit have averaged 58.3 PPG. This has both the betting public and the percentage of dollars bet on the Texans and the OVER.
These teams have allowed the fifth- (Detroit, tied) and seventh-most pass plays of 20-plus yards, while Houston has allowed the second-most rushing plays of at least 20 yards. Deshaun Watson is tied with Patrick Mahomes in pass plays of 20-plus yards with 40 (second-most).
Texans
Deshaun Watson has thrived since the coaching change. Removing the game in Cleveland, he is averaging 325.6 yards per game on 9.06 YPA and 2.6 TDs per game (35 rush yards per game), compared to 273 and 1.5 TDs on 8.6 YPA (14.5 rush yards for 19.87 FPPG). In fairness to BOB, that may have been scheduling — the Texans started their season against Kansas City, Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Minnesota. Three of those are in the top-12 in YPA, DVOA and passing TDs allowed.
Watson has picked on New England (30th), Jacksonville twice (31st), Tennessee (25th) and Green Bay (16th). Detroit clearly falls in that category, 23rd in pass DVOA. Over the Lions’ past three games, they are allowing 68% completion rate for 281 yards per game. Detroit is also in the bottom-six in pressure rate, blitz rate and adjusted sack rate, so Watson should have no issue posting his sixth 300-yard passing game (only Mahomes has more, with six such games so far).
Watson is (by far) the best QB option on the three-game slate, as he would be a top-three option on the full slate. If you play cash games, I would lock him in. In GPPs, we are fading for the ownership edge at a position that is the least volatile and offers the least amount of differential in weekly scoring. If we can get comparable production from another (less expensive) QB (they are all 12% or less) and Watson falls short, we will have a huge edge rolling into the afternoon games.
He is averaging 30.2 DraftKings points per game and has exceeded 34 in two of his last five. Right now, I have him on two of three teams, as the opposite of that “fade” scenario is a 30-point fantasy performance that leaves all of our teams dead by the time the turkey goes in the oven. With Ben Roethlisberger and Lamar Jackson in tough matchups, and Stafford playing hurt and without Kenny Golladay, we are left with Red Rifle Andy Dalton and Alex Smith. If 50% of the field holds a 10-point edge at QB, you will need to be close to perfect with the rest of your roster
I have had Duke Johnson in the “underweight” section of the Sunday morning update for both of his starts without David Johnson. The reason I say underweight, versus “full fade” is simple, for those that submit multiple lineups, you don’t need to “full fade” a player, if they are projected for 30% ownership, you can be underweight on the field, while still holding a handful of teams if you are wrong.
Duke is getting RB1 usage, handling 80% of the backfield touches, which has yielded 13.5 touches a game for 45 total yards. Detroit allows the most DraftKIngs points to running backs, allowing 2.9 more than second-place Houston. The Lions have allowed a staggering 19 RB touchdowns in 10 games (5 passing and 14 rushing TDs allowed are both 32nd), which is driving that ranking. If you remove the scores, they haven’t been that bad, allowing 3.02 YPC in their last two games, after just 3.3 YPC in four games prior to the Vikings game. It’s just Dalvin Cook and his 206 yards throwing off their stats. I realize that is a big game to throw out (Alexander Mattison also went 12-69), but Minnesota is nothing like Houston (or any team for that matter). They are first in adjusted line yards gained, which has yielded 5.1 RB yards per carry (first — this stat excludes QB runs), which is first by a significant margin. Houston is last in adjusted line yards gained (3.63).
If the yards are tough to come by, Duke might not be very useful. Houston targets RBs at a 15% rate, so you are looking at 5.2 targets a game on average. He got exactly five last week (3-20-0), which combined with Houston’s heavy pass rate in the RZ leaves a limited upside. In his two starts, Watson has 14 red-zone rush/pass attempts, compared to 1 carry and 1 target for Duke inside the 20. Only Chicago has a higher passing touchdown percentage, with 77% of Houston’s touchdowns coming on Watson passes. They have 6 rushing TDs on the season, and Watson has two of them. Duke is projected for 25% ownership, but I will come in around 10% at the most.
C.J. Prosise played 25% of snaps last week after 4% in Week 10. Oddly, they put him in the fourth quarter for most of those snaps, catching both targets and seeing two of his three rush attempts. I say it is odd, because they were in a close game (24-20), and he touched the ball two times prior in 10 weeks. I don’t think we can run him out unless you play showdown, but it is another factor that could assist us with our Duke fade.
Both Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks are obvious plays on a three-game slate, so no need to go too deep. Early ownership projections have Fuller nearly two times as popular, which makes me prefer Cooks at a $1.1k less on DK. Since Week 7, Cook has a 27.67% target share, compared to 20.67% for Fuller. Where Fuller has the edge is TDs, but Cooks has caught him in both red-zone and goal-line looks, so I don’t know that their probability of scoring being too different. They move around quite a bit, so we don’t need to look at individual CB matchups. Fuller will see more of struggling Desmond Trufant, who has allowed 11-159-1 on 14 targets in coverage.
Detroit has been most vulnerable to slot WRs, getting lit up again last week by Curtis Samuel. Randall Cobb was injured last week after five snaps, Kenny Stills after seven. After that, Cooks played 14 snaps in the slot last week, second to Keke Coutee’s 20. They also lined up TE Jordan Akins for 11 and Darren Fells for 4 snaps. Cobb will not play, while Stills is questionable after being limited in practice. These secondary options can often decide a slate like this, so we need to know if Stills is active before moving on to Coutee. Stills has played 42% of his snaps inside this season.
Akins (5-83-0, 6 targets), Pharaoh Brown (2-22-0) and Fells (2-29-0) make a TE committee from hell for DFS. Akins ran almost twice as many routes as the other two, so would be the play, even if it does feel like point chasing.
Lions
It will take a short memory to roster Matthew Stafford after his 178-yard performance last week, but he will come at one-third the ownership as Watson, so on a three-game slate is firmly in play in the only game with a 50-point total. Golladay is sorely missed — Stafford averages 20.8 fantasy points per game with his WR1, 15.09 without. If we are looking for something to hang our hat on, Stafford has done his best work at home, posting back-to-back three-score games, averaging 305 yards per game against Indianapolis and Washington, top-six pass defenses.
Removing the Cleveland game again, Houston has been getting lit up by QBs that look terrible otherwise (Cam Newton passed for 365 yards, Jake Luton 304). Prior to that, Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Tannehill and Gardner Minshew ripped them up for 316.6 and 3.33 TDs per game.
Marvin Jones has come along with both of Stafford’s ceiling games, posting 8-96-1 and 3-39-2 in those two home games. He is averaging 3.71 FPPG more at home (13.48), and 6.63 FPPG more at home without Golladay (6-75.5-0.5 TDs p/g). Per FTN Data, Bradley Roby has not shadowed since Week 7, but either way, he is not someone to avoid when taking a shot in tournaments.
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T.J. Hockenson was a popular DFS play last week with Danny Amendola, D’Andre Swift and Golladay all out. It made a lot of sense — that is 46.6% of Detroit’s target share this season. He, like all these players, was dragged down by the low play volume and Stafford’s issues. Considering they passed for a total of 178 on 15 completions, his 4-68-0 seems rather impressive. Hock has 8 targets inside the 10-yard line, which has him tied for second with Travis Kelce and Darren Waller among TEs and fourth among all players. Houston’s defense is bad in all aspects, including against TEs; it has just been masked by a weak TE schedule. He will be popular, but not as popular as Mark Andrews, making him my No. 1 TE on the slate.
With D’Andre Swift out last week, the matchup was right for Kerryon Johnson and Adrian Peterson, but that was the only thing that was right. They totaled 15 touches for 56 yards in the shutout, with Johnson seeing 5 targets (2-21-0). Johnson dominated snaps with Detroit being down from the start, playing 70% of snaps, after a previous season high at 33%. Peterson did not see a single touch in the second half after out-touching Johnson 5-1 in the first quarter. Peterson was a terrible call, nothing else I can say but sorry, my bad. I got the script wrong, Stafford was terrible and thus AD was useless.
Now the fantasy gods troll us with a matchup against the league’s worst rush defense, who allow 5.38 RB yards per carry. They held up much better than expected last week, but I think that was more the expectation than the rule. Speaking of “expected,” per our Expected Fantasy Points Advanced DvP tool, Detroit is +7.2, which is a full point worse than 31st ranked Green Bay.
I will update this section as definitive news comes in on Swift’s status.
Injuries
Per the Detroit Free Press
- “The Detroit Lions listed Swift as a limited participant on their estimated practice report Tuesday as he makes his way through the NFL’s concussion protocol, but downgraded Golladay to a non-participant because of a lingering hip injury.
Swift reported a brain injury last week and missed Sunday’s loss to the Carolina Panthers.He must make it through the NFL’s five-step concussion protocol before he’s cleared to play in Thursday’s Thanksgiving game against the Houston Texans”. - Along with Golladay (who I am considering OUT), cornerback Jeff Okudah (shoulder), defensive tackle Da’Shawn Hand (calf), receiver Danny Amendola (hip) and cornerback Mike Ford (concussion) were listed as non-participants on Tuesday’s practice report.
Danny Amendola is the other big piece of news we need before figuring out the “other WR” situation. Last week, Quintez Cephus (2 targets), Jamal Agnew (6 targets, 81% slot), and Marvin Hall saw snaps, in addition to practice squad call up, Mohamed Sanu. Hall is also on the injury report, but he has seen the most consistent playing time over their last four weeks.
Core: Deshaun Watson, Brandin Cooks, Will Fuller, T.J. Hockenson
GPP: Matthew Stafford, Marvin Jones, Duke Johnson
(UPDATES coming for the Lions RBs [Swift, Johnson, Peterson] and the DET/HOU secondary WRs [Amendola, Coutee, Stills].)
WAS +3. O/U. 46
WAS: 21.5 | DAL: 24.5
Pace and playcalling
This is a great game from a pace and playcalling angle, grading out as the fastest game of Week 12, with Dallas second and Washington third in neutral pace.
Dallas games have combined for an average of 138 plays per game, most in the league. That has led to a combined 55.3 PPG, but only a 5-5 record to the OVER, as they keep getting huge totals assigned to them.
Both teams have seen their opponents rush at a top-10 rate. Dallas is 29th in adjusted line yards allowed (4.85), Washington eighth (3.92).
Washington passes at a 61% neutral rate (fourth) and Dallas 57% (15th). Of course, we need to remove the Dak Prescott games from Dallas’ record, as he is nothing like Andy Dalton or the other backups they have run out. Since Week 6, Dallas has passed at the sixth-lowest rate, down with Minnesota, New England, Baltimore and other run-heavy teams. Even last week in a shootout with Minnesota, the Cowboys passed at a 47% neutral rate, which was the entire game.
With Alex Smith under center, Washington has passed at a 67% neutral rate (first), while playing at the fastest pace. It has only produced 22.3 PPG against the Bengals-Lions-Giants, showing again that speed does not equal efficiency. All those matchups were favorable, but Dallas has allowed the most PPG this season after giving up 31 to Minnesota. That was the sixth time they have allowed at least 30 points, which has them 32nd in points per game allowed (31.8).
Cowboys
Andy Dalton had a 3-TD performance last week, but combined with 203 passing yards on 32 attempts only got to 20.32 fantasy points. The danger for Dalton in this matchup — besides the increased rush rate — is the Washington pass rush. The Football Team is third in sacks and adjusted sack rate, which is not good news for the Red Rifle. These teams met in Week 7 in a bad weather game, where Dalton passed for 3.8 YPA, took three sacks and threw an INT before being injured. I have him ranked last out of the six QBs, projected for 16 fantasy points.
This matchup is also the one that began a downturn for Ezekiel Elliott, a three-game stretch that saw him average 7.5 fantasy points per game. Those were tough matchups (Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Washington), which, combined with negative gamescripts, left him with the worst three weeks of his career. As the marquee RB name on the slate, he is projected to be the highest-owned RB by a good margin, which has me considering a fade on two of three of my three-max teams. Washington is top-12 in fantasy points per game allowed and rush DVOA, and eighth in adjusted line yards allowed, and have allowed one 100-yard rusher this season (Nick Chubb). The scary thing about the fade is that, even with the downturn, Elliott has averaged 21 touches a game, so on a three-game slate, he could end up being the only player with 20-plus touches. I have him on one of three main lineups.
Amari Cooper moves all over the formation, including 37% of his snaps in the slot over his last three games. He had a productive game in their Week 7 matchup, taking advantage of Ronald Darby for 4-65-0 of his 7-80-0. In Dalton’s two full games, Cooper has averaged 6.5 receptions, 80 receiving yards and 0.5 TDs, good for 17.5 fantasy points per game. Considering his talent, ownership and price, he is a top-five option at WR.
CeeDee Lamb made a spectacular catch for a TD against Minnesota, one of the best of the year. Lamb has averaged 8 targets in Dalton’s full games, posting 5.5 rec for 44 yards and the score, so I expect him to be popular, but Washington has allowed the third-fewest targets to the slot and the fewest fantasy points per game, per our FTN Advanced DvP tool. Lamb has had between 47% and 63% snap share with the increase in rush rate, as the Cowboys have gone to more 12-personnel, with Blake Bell picking up the extra snaps as the TE2. Washington shut him out in their first matchup on five targets, which combined with the other factors has him outside my top-seven WRs.
Michael Gallup has seen the biggest falloff since losing Dak Prescott, only averaging 2 receptions for 26 yards on 5.5 targets a game since losing his starter. He will see the most of Football Team’s top CB Kendall Fuller, which makes him an even bigger risk. Gallup has secured 51.7% of his targets this season (107th), but is (somehow) first in routes run among all WRs. When you play showdown, or a three-game slate in which your goal is to win the GPP, these are the types of players you need to take chances with. We just need one TD pass to a very talented player (at $3.5k and 6-8% ownership) to pay off.
More two-TE sets and rush attempts for the Boys has been good for Dalton Schultz stock. Over his last three games, he has played 95%-96%-91% of the snaps after being in the 60-70% range with Prescott. He has averaged 4.5 receptions and 42 yards with a score last week, which at his prices and inconsistency at TE has been great. Tight end is one of the soft spots for Washington. They have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game on FanDuel and rank 31st in DVOA against TEs.
Football Team
Alex Smith needs Dallas to score to be a thing. We have seen him on both ends of the volume spectrum in his last two games, with 55 pass attempts in Week 10 at Detroit (30-27 loss) and 25 in Cincinnati last week (20-9 win). This is why pace and playcalling — aka, handicapping the game correctly — is so important in DFS. I know Washington is technically the underdog here, but Dallas has failed to cover a single time this year as a favorite, so Smith landing in another shootout like we saw in Detroit is far from a lock. Why am I still going to take a flier on Smith? Well, because of how bad Dallas is. CBs Trevon Diggs and Anthony Brown will be out, leaving Chidobe Awuzie (5-86-0 on 6 targets in coverage to Minnesota last week) and a bunch of backups to cover Terry McLaurin.
McLaurin has been ultra-consistent, with 13.4 DK points or more in five straight and six of seven. He and Smith have been very efficient together, connecting on 12 of his last 16 targets for nearly 15 yards per reception. Even in a game with just 25 dropbacks, McLaurin got his 7 targets (5-84-0). They seem to be very close to putting it all together, which is why he is projected to be the most popular player on the slate. I probably should only put him on one of three main lineups if he really ends up at 60-70%, but I have not decided yet, as I want to see Kyle Murray’s ownership projections (using Saber Sim at the time of writing this). It won’t be a comfortable fade, with the CBs out and Dallas allowing the most passing TDs this season. If there is ever a spot he goes nuts with 100-plus yards and two scores, this is it (7-90-1 in their week 7 matchup).
Antonio Gibson has been on a touchdown tear, scoring five times in four games. Like Smith, he is tied to the script, seeing 20 and 16 rush attempts in Washington’s last two wins, and 9-13-6 in their last three losses. With him being so tied to the score, he makes a simple play for constructing lineups. Get him in a stack with Washington DST; fade him with Dallas passing-game options Smith and McLaurin.
Just take the Gibson writeup and flip it for J.D. McKissic. He thrives in games they lose and disappears in wins. McKissic has 3-26-0 and 2-16-0 in those wins, versus 9-65-0 (14 targets) and 7-43-0 (15 targets) in their past two losses.
Logan Thomas is someone I have declared dead to me, but on a three-game slate I need to cover everyone. Dallas is bad in all aspects of defense, including the TE, as they proved by allowing Thomas 4-60-1 on four targets. He won’t make it on a three-max, since I like this slate for TEs, but he is worthy for MME on your Smith stacks.
Cam Sims has solidified his role as the WR2, playing opposite McLaurin for 94% and 85% over his last two games. Steven Sims and Isaiah Wright have split time in the slot over their past two games, with Steven Sims leading 60-45 in snaps. Prior to Steven Sims. being hurt early in the season, he was playing 83% and 93% snaps, so he is the guy to take a flier on. Again, if the goal is to be unique and win a short-slate GPP or showdown contest, players like Steven Sims (1-3% owned) should be on your radar (MME — if you are rolling out one lineup, no need to get this contrarian).
Core: Terry McLaurin, Amari Cooper, Ezekiel Elliott, Antonio Gibson, Dalton Schultz
GPP: J.D. McKissic, Alex Smith, Michael Gallup, CeeDee Lamb, Steven Sims, Logan Thomas, Andy Dalton
**UPDATE**
I already play lighter on Thanksgiving than on full slates and will dial it down even further with this turning into a 2-game slate. If you are with your family, being on tilt for 10 hours after an early injury is (extremely) miserable. Get action, have fun, but don’t over-extend your bankroll.
I realize not everyone is in a legal state, but I have been betting “creatively” for many (many) years. There are a lot of ways to get action nowadays, but if you don’t want to be “creative”, check out www.PrizePicks.com, which has you bet OVER or UNDER on fantasy points. Use Promo Code, FTN for a 100% deposit match (up to $100). Below is my own play, where I need two of three to win.
Injury updates (HOU @ DET)
Six players have been ruled out including starting WRs Kenny Golladay & Danny Amendola. Jamal Agnew will (assumably) start in the slot for Amendola, with Hall and Jones playing outside. Without a Dalvin/CMC type player to pay up for on this slate, I am not sure how much we need the salary relief. Agnew (24 WR snaps last week, 10 of his recorded snaps were on special teams) is a converted CB with good speed but has 15 targets in his career (9-48-0). I think he is a showdown play, at $800 on DK, where the salary relief is needed to get in Watson and Cooks or Fuller (and especially if you want to jam in those two WRs in).
The Lions added Mohamad Sanu to the active roster again today. He played 15 snaps but did not see a target before being sent back down to the practice squad. He and Quintez Cephus (10 routes, 2 targets on 32%) could easily emerge past, or at least cut into Agnew’s already limited snap share, so don’t over-invest in this situation. Marvin Hall is still projected to be under 10%, who we know will play full-time snaps. He and Hockenson are my two favorite plays out of these DET receiving options, with Jones locked in as the defacto WR1.
DET has major issues at CB also, so they activated Dee Virgin to the active roster. With CBs Mike Ford and Jeff Okudah OUT and Amani Oruwariye questionable. With Amani O, the Lions only have four cornerbacks available in Desmond Trufant, Justin Coleman, and Virgin. With a red-hot Watson rolling into town with Cooks and Fuller, this is not the time to be paper-thin in an already bad secondary.
We still DO NOT KNOW if D’Andre Swift will be active. He has made it through 4 of 5 of the concussion protocols, but anytime you hear “brain injury” you have to wait for the official word. If he is cleared in the AM, he goes right to the top of my RB ranks. I will update again in the AM.
For the Texans, it is not as complicated. They ruled OUT Kenny Stills, clearing the way for Keke Coutee to operate out the slot (see full analysis). As much as it puts Coutee in play, it also locks in the two studs as the best WR plays on the slate. I can see one falling short of their projection, but the likelihood of both is VERY slim in this matchup, especially with the CB injuries. I would make sure I have one or both of those WRs on all your teams. I also have no issue full stacking this game with the thought of WASH/DALLAS busting (and vice versa), meaning all three HOU WRs in a stack with Watson, TJ at TE, and Hall or Jones at flex.
WASH/DALLAS UPDATES
Terry McLaurin has crept into the injury headlines, but he practiced in full on WED so I am not worried about it.
SUNDAY AM UPDATE
SWIFT IS OUT making this a pretty terrible slate. Kerryon Johnson makes the most sense with HOU favored. Losing Swift really sucks the air out of this Lions offense, he could have destroyed this HOU rush D. The contrarian play is the Adrian Peterson + DET D stack if you are making multiple lineups. What this news does is push Gibson into the ULTRA high owned category, making JD McKissic more interesting in tournaments/showdown. The news also vaults DUKE into more of my lineups, I was trying to be way underweight, but there are only so many options now at RB.
Optimal LU
DK: Watson – Zeke – Gibson – Fuller – Coutee – Hock – F1
FD: Watson – Zeke – Gibson – Fuller – Coutee – Hock – F1
Low-Owed One-Offs (haha, “lower owned” is more accurate) – Schultz – Gallup – Steven Sims Jr. – Marvin Hall – Agnew
Good Luck everyone and Happy Thanksgiving
