Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The idea of buying and selling in fantasy football tends to strike a nerve. During the season, you’ll hear many unrealistic suggestions about buying or selling based on knee-jerk reactions from weekly performances. Nobody is selling Ja’Marr Chase after a down week or two. You’re not getting a first-round pick for the random wide receiver with a hot streak (remember Travis Fulgham?).
Nuance and context matter, and successful fantasy managers understand this. Buying doesn’t mean getting a player for a half-eaten ham sandwich and a bag of Sunchips. Selling doesn’t mean you must rid your rosters of said player for 10 cents on the dollar. When players are improperly valued, take advantage.
Below are a few dynasty moves you should want to make now.
Dynasty Moves to Make Now: Buys
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins
Jaylen Waddle has tumbled stumbled down dynasty ranks after a 2023 season year that saw him set career lows in receptions, yards and touchdowns. That “down year” was still good for 72 catches, 1,014 receiving yards and four touchdowns in just 14 games (his first season with fewer than 16). He left two of those games early, playing close to his full complement of snaps in Week 2 against New England before leaving with a concussion. He played roughly half his usual snaps in Week 16 against Buffalo before leaving the game with a high ankle sprain. Waddle was still able to average 14.1 PPR points per game, roughly two points per game from a WR1 finish (Ja’Marr Chase was WR12 with 16.4). A player with his combination of floor and ceiling should be held in much higher regard than he currently is in dynasty.
Just 25 years old, Waddle won’t turn 26 until November (coincidentally enough, we share a birthday). He’s one year removed from a 75-catch, 1,356-yard, 8-touchdown year, finishing as a borderline WR1. Waddle started his career with back-to-back seasons of over 15 PPR points per game and top-14 finishes. He’s had over 70 catches and 1,000 receiving yards in each of his first three seasons. Miami exercised his fifth-year option this offseason, so he’s tied to the elite Dolphins offense (second- and sixth-ranked offensive DVOA over the past two seasons) through 2025 at a minimum.
Yes, he has to compete with Tyreek Hill for catches, but Hill just turned 30 — he’s moving toward the end of his prime. Since 2020, just 14 wide receivers age 30 or older have played at least 10 games and averaged at least 12 PPR fantasy points. That number drops to six at age 31-plus. Adam Thielen at age 33 is the only player older than 31 to ever meet the criteria. There will be a changing of the guard in Miami over the next season or two, and Waddle’s cost will likely never be this low again. The time to strike for Waddle is now.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks sophomore admittedly had a subpar rookie season, tallying just 63 receptions for 628 yards and four touchdowns. Not exactly what we had hoped for from the first wide receiver taken in the 2023 NFL Draft. But in context, it’s not all that surprising. JSN had a lot working against him.
Let’s get the easy one out of the way. Yes, playing third fiddle to DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett on the depth chart was always going to hinder JSN’s year-one production. But there’s more to the story. Seattle was dead last in total plays in 2023. They were the only team that ran fewer than 1,000 on the season (995). Their average of 21.4 points per game ranked 17th in the NFL, not exactly an environment that fosters supporting three uber-productive wide receivers.
So why am I bullish on JSN for 2024 and beyond? First off, Pete Carroll is out as head coach. In steps Mike Macdonald, a sharp defensive mind tasked with fixing a disappointing Seahawks defense. But the cause for excitement is new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb. The mind behind Washington’s explosive offense helped lead the Huskies to the National Championship Game, and quarterback Michael Penix Jr. become a Heisman Trophy finalist. Grubb is a brilliant playcaller who aims to work matchups. He runs an air-raid-style offense that emphasizes the big play. For the first time in a long time (ever?) Seattle will have a modern offensive style that should be a conduit for fantasy production.
But what about Metcalf and Lockett? Metcalf isn’t going anywhere. Just 26, he’s locked in as this team’s WR1 for the foreseeable future. Lockett, however, is a different story. Lockett was considered a potential cap casualty this offseason before restructuring his contract. It wouldn’t be surprising if he were cut after this season, however. A $5.3 million roster bonus kicks in if Lockett is still on the roster come next March 18. But even in the unlikely event he’s not released after this season, he turns 32 this September. Lockett will go down as one of the greatest wide receivers in Seahawks history, but JSN is destined to overtake him in the pecking order sooner rather than later.
Dynasty Moves to Make Now: Sells
Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens
Having King Henry listed as a sell will undoubtedly lead to nothing but calm, reasonable, level-headed comments. But don’t hear what I’m not saying before you throw your phone in disgust. You should not be looking to rid all your rosters of Henry for any little bit of value that can be squeezed from him (I would not suggest trying to squeeze him at all, if we’re being honest). If you expect to be a contender for a championship this season and are in win-now mode, hanging onto him makes sense. But if you’re in that middle ground where your chances of making and missing the playoffs are roughly the same, I’d put out feelers for interest in him.
There is no debate that Henry has been one of the most productive running backs of the past decade, partially thanks to the legendary workload he’s been able to handle. The Titans have (intelligently) given him a ton of carries, amassing 200-plus carries every season since 2018. He’s had over 300 in three of the last five seasons. Despite playing in just eight games in 2021, Henry still racked up 219 carries. So that will continue with Baltimore’s run-heavy offense, right? In the wise words of Lee Corso, “Not so fast my friend!”
Yes, Baltimore has had at least 500 rushing attempts for six straight seasons. But that doesn’t mean a huge workload for Henry. The last Ravens running back to have 200 or more carries in a season was Mark Ingram back in 2019. Not only do the Ravens prefer the committee approach to running backs, but they also have Lamar Jackson under center. He’s averaged 145 carries every season of his career. The Ravens have had just two running backs with 145 or more carries since drafting Jackson.
I don’t think Henry is washed. But Henry’s move to Baltimore is much better in terms of actual football versus fantasy football. He’s averaged under 4.5 yards per carry in each of the past three seasons. He’s not going to see the type of volume he’s been accustomed to in Tennessee. Do not just give Henry away, but shop him around. If you can get a first-round pick, maybe someone like a Joe Mixon, Rachaad White or Kenneth Walker, make the move.
Stefon Diggs, WR, Houston Texans
The best bromance in the NFL ended this offseason when Josh Allen’s BFF was traded to the up-and-coming Houston Texans. The C.J. Stroud-led offense should be plenty productive, and the fantasy points flow freely. But Stefon Diggs will see much more target competition this season. Diggs saw 150-plus targets in each of his four seasons in Buffalo. That’s not happening with a wide receiving corps that includes Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz and newly acquired Joe Mixon, a capable pass-catching back.
Diggs is getting up there in age as well. He’ll be 30 to start the season and turn 31 in November (the same birthday month as Jaylen Waddle and me). I won’t re-hash all the same stats I did earlier when discussing Tyreek Hill, but elite seasons are few and far between for wide receivers 30 years or older. He’ll be good in Houston — I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Texans win the AFC South and make a semi-deep playoff run. But for fantasy purposes, Diggs’ days of dominance are over. He’ll be a rock-solid WR2 with some WR1 weeks mixed in. He’s not the WR1 on the Texans (hello, Nico Collins), and he shouldn’t be considered one for your fantasy team, either.
(As a bonus: To the dozen or so of us who still have Laviska Shenault Jr. sitting on the end of our rosters, it’s OK to let go. I know; I believed, too. But it’s time to drop him.)
