Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
This game doesn’t carry the weight that the NFL had hoped for when they scheduled it, but the Green Bay Packers hosting the Los Angeles Rams is still a fun matchup with some fascinating storylines. Can Baker Mayfield build on one of the most improbable wins in recent years? Can Aaron Rodgers rally the Packers into the postseason? Will Christian Watson ever stop scoring touchdowns? Let’s find out who we want to play.
Be sure to check out David Jones’ “General Rules” article for Showdown Strategy and his piece for each game, along with the DFS Showdown Strategy articles for each slate. Additionally, the FTN Live Stream every game night will provide the latest insight for each slate.
NFL DFS Monday Night Breakdown: Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers
Packers -7, O/U 39.5 (Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook)
Los Angeles Rams Plays for Week 15 DFS – MNF Showdown and Primetime Slates
Notable Injuries – CB David Long, DT Aaron Donald, QB John Wolford (O), C Brian Allen (Q)
Quarterback
Baker Mayfield didn’t even know how to get from the podium into the locker room after leading the Rams to a last-second win in Week 14. Despite the great story, the fantasy production wasn’t amazing. He didn’t crack 15 DK points even though what he accomplished was wildly impressive. It should be noted that Mayfield had a fantastic matchup since the Raiders are dead last in DVOA against the pass. That’s changing this week since Green Bay is eighth in DVOA against the pass and allows the 14th-most points per game and the fifth-fewest pass yards per game.
I still want to remember that Mayfield was 30th in points per dropback, 32nd in points per game, 32nd in yards per attempt and lost his job in Carolina. However, he does have a 146.9 passer rating on his 21 deep attempts this season with a 3:1 TD: INT ratio, and the Packers have allowed the 10th-most yards and second-highest completion rate when faced with a deep ball. He does have issues with pressure, as he’s sporting just a 55.0 passer rating when pressured and Green Bay is fifth in pressure rate on the year. This is a mixed bag for Mayfield, and he’s still been with the team for less than two weeks. He’s a fine option, but I’m unsure if there is a ceiling outcome here.
Running Back
Since Week 9, Cam Akers has had a stranglehold on the work, even if the snaps have been very low. He’s handled 62 carries, and his six red-zone carries are four more than any other player on the team. In the past two weeks, the snaps have come up to 57%, and he’s handled 80.6% of the carries out of the backfield. The Packers are 30th in yards per attempt allowed, 30th in stuff rate, 29th in rushing yards allowed and 20th in points allowed per game to the position.
Akers has generally been terrible by any metric since he’s outside the top 45 in yards per touch and yards created per touch, not to mention he’s 52nd in points per game. He’s quite affordable if he’s going to get 15-17 carries, even though he’s only been targeted three times since Week 9. Kyren Williams has been targeted 11 times in that same span but only has six carries in the past two weeks and is under 29% of the snaps. Akers has been so bad this season, but the volume matters and the matchup is excellent.
Wide Receiver
The breakdown of the passing game always feels a little tougher when it’s the following game for a new quarterback since we don’t know for sure if last week’s trends are for real. What we do know is that Mayfield loved Tutu Atwell, who led the team in targets at nine despite playing just 60.9% of the snaps. He also had the lead in air yards share at 39.7%, and his matchup number in the WR/CB Matchup Tool is very notable. He should be in the slot for a little over half of the snaps, and Keisean Nixon is in that alignment for the Packers, allowing a 75% catch rate and 0.27 points per route in 137 routes. Atwell just keeps earning more targets (by design or necessity is not important) and feels way too affordable for the trends, especially if he turns into a favorite of Mayfield.
Van Jefferson was the hero on the touchdown reception last week but was also targeted just four times, which was four less than Ben Skowronek. Jefferson is not in any alignment more than 36% of the time, so he’s going to see Jaire Alexander and Rasul Douglas, both of whom have allowed 0.24 points per route or higher. Alexander is only at a 59% catch rate compared to 71% for Douglas, but Jefferson has not earned more than six targets in any game yet. He’s been the touchdown threat with three in the past five weeks but has not exceeded 44 yards.
Skowronek was only one target behind Atwell for the lead, and he’s in the slot over 40% of the time as well. I don’t believe Jefferson will have such a better outcome that you want to pay the higher salary, so I’m planning on playing Atwell, Skowronek and Jefferson in that order. If the Rams can salvage something from Atwell, that’s a big bonus for a team bereft of draft capital right now. Brandon Powell was pushed to the back burner with only 21.9% of the snaps and two targets, so I’m going with what Mayfield has shown us in his first game.
Tight End
Tyler Higbee was back on the field for 95.3% of the snaps, which is great. The bad news was he only saw three targets, while Mayfield used the receivers more than they generally have been. Higbee only has eight red-zone targets on the season and one deep target, so if he’s not seeing a volume of targets, it’s not going to be a good mix.
He’s fifth in targets, sixth in receptions and 10th in yards, but he’s also just 20th in points per game. Green Bay has given up the 10th-fewest points per game to the position, and you have to wonder if Higbee getting so much work was a function of the rest of the offense. Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson are all gone, so we’ll attempt to adjust as they do.
Defense/Special Teams
This game has a low total, and the Rams are just 14th in total DVOA, but you’re not paying a whole lot to get them into your lineup. Green Bay has turned the ball over 17 times on the year, although Los Angeles has forced 15 takeaways and they’re also 16th in points per game allowed. It has taken some adjusting this year, but Green Bay is 23rd in points scored per game and missing an important piece of the offensive line. There are probably worse plays in this salary range.
Kicker
Matt Gay is just 23rd in attempts since the Rams offense has been abjectly poor this year, and he’s only had 21 attempts. The plus side is seven of his 19 kicks have come from at least 40 yards or more, and he’s right at 7.0 points per game. Green Bay is 18th in yards allowed per game, so perhaps Los Angeles can move the ball more than normal, but this is still a second-string offense compared to what they started the season with.
Green Bay Packers Plays for Week 15 MNF DFS – MNF Showdown and Primetime Slates
Notable Injuries – T David Bakhtiari (O)
Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers has had a roller coaster of a season so far, and he’s just 20th in points per dropback and 20th in points per game. It’s been reflected in his results to this point as well. Rodgers has cracked 20 DK points just once this season, but at least the Rams are only 23rd in DVOA against the pass and ninth in points per game allowed. The matchup looks average by some of the surface numbers, but Rodgers has some strong metrics going for him in this one.
The Rams have deployed their corners in zone at least 86% of the time, and Rodgers has been at his best when faced with zone. He’s third in completion rate (76.5%) and ninth in passer rating (104.5), while Rodgers is off the injury report from the oblique that bothered him before the bye week. The Rams are missing one of their best defensive players and have allowed the highest passer rating when they see play-action at 127.4 and the highest completion rate at 73.9%. This is a pretty strong spot for Rodgers since he’s using play-action just over 25% of the time against a vulnerable passing defense.
Running Back
The duo of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon has been tough to get right all season, but not always for the same reason. For a large part of the year, Dillon has been somewhat of an afterthought and went 10 straight games under 10 DK points. In the past two weeks, he’s scored over 17.5 points in each game and has totaled 157 rushing yards with another 50 receiving yards. Jones missed a portion of the Week 13 game with an injury, so his nine carries make a little more sense, although Jones has had his own issues this year when healthy.
Jones has been prone to floor games, but his mix of ceiling outcomes has left him as RB10 in points per game, 10th in rushing yards, eighth in receiving yards and sixth in receptions. Jones is also 10th in yards created per touch and yards per touch, but he can be frustrating to roster when he’s 20th in red-zone touches. Dillon is just 47th, so it’s not like he’s usurping all the touches when it matters, but those tend to go to Rodgers.
Dillon does have one thing going for him, and that’s the Rams allow 56.9% of their rushing yards on the interior of the alignment. Of the 624 rushing yards for Dillon, 383 have come on the inside. The Rams have still had a strong run defense overall since they have allowed the fourth-lowest yards per attempt, the fifth-highest DVOA against the run and the fourth-highest stuff rate. The gap in salary keeps both backs in play, depending on the build.
Wide Receiver
It’s a challenge on this side of the game with the receiving corps since they are as healthy as they have been all year. Romeo Doubs is back in action this week, but if Matt LaFleur is to be believed, he may not have the largest role ever –
I would expect Christian Watson to still be a large part of the game plan since he’s been a dynamo since Week 10. In those four games, Watson has the team lead in targets at a 23.6% share and his air yards share is 44.1% with a ridiculous eight total touchdowns. We all know the touchdowns won’t keep up at two per game, but the role Watson has been playing is still deserving of a high salary, and the matchup grades out the best in the WR/CB Matchup tool.
His 14.2 aDOT is 10th among receivers and he’s 13th in yards run per route. The Packers are making an effort to move Watson all around the formation since he hasn’t played more than 37% of his snaps in any alignment. The trio of corners for the Rams includes Jalen Ramsey, Cobie Durant and Troy Hill, and they all allow a catch rate of 66% or higher and 0.23 points per route or higher. Ramsey himself is at 0.30, so I would have no real issues if he tried to cover Watson in this game.
Allen Lazard has been right behind Watson in targets through the last four games with a 21.8% share, but he’s only had one red-zone and one end-zone target in that span. That’s kept the production lower, and Randall Cobb has three and four of those targets, respectively, but Cobb has only produced 92 yards. There is probably going to be a game where Lazard scores instead of Watson since he has 11 red-zone targets on the season, and it’s not like Lazard hasn’t gotten any work while Watson has been going nuts.
Lazard moves around just like Watson and is on the boundary 59% of the time, which could mean more of Ramsey and Hill. Since there isn’t much of a statistical difference in the corners, Lazard could wind up being a solid leverage play. The pricing of this unit makes me only want to play Watson and Lazard since Cobb could see his snaps dialed back and Doubs doesn’t appear poised to make a full return.
Tight End
The Rams may be allowing the 13th-most points per game to the position, but it is difficult to click on Robert Tonyan’s name with any confidence. As it stands, he’s TE24 in points per game and 18th in yards with only one touchdown on the season. The target share of 13.3% is only 19th among tight ends, and now the receiving corps is healthier than ever.
Tonyan is also just 21st in yards run per route and isn’t even that cheap. Josiah Deguara and Marcedes Lewis have a total of 17 targets in the offense this year, and Lewis has one touchdown with just 11.0 points scored. You are very likely to get a zero from either of those two players.
Defense/Special Teams
The Packers defense is a little expensive, but it’s understandable given how the Rams have played all year. They are 30th in points scored per game, have allowed the most sacks in the league and are tied for the fifth-most turnovers in football.
They’ve basically been a disaster, while Green Bay is fifth in pressure rate generated (just a 6% sack rate and they’ve dealt with a lot of injuries) and down to 23rd in total DVOA. The defense should probably be better than they are, and I feel like we don’t need to pay up despite the issues the Rams have.
Kicker
The Rams have allowed the 13th-fewest yards per game, so Green Bay may not be able to just march up and down the field. Mason Crosby only has 18 attempts on the year and is down under 6.0 DK points per game and only has three field goals of at least 40 yards. Crosby has gone 26-of-28 with his extra points but has shown limited range and opportunity. He does at least get the benefit of the Rams ranking second in red-zone scoring rate allowed, so Crosby could walk into some chip-shot attempts.
