Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Week 2 comes to a close with a Monday Night Football showdown between the Detroit Lions and the Green Bay Packers.
The Lions are coming off a thrilling loss vs. the 49ers in Week 1. They fell behind by a massive margin early, but they came storming back in the second half. They ultimately lost by just eight points, securing a backdoor cover for those who bet them later in the week. Still, their performance didn’t instill a ton of confidence in their ability to keep games competitive this season.
Meanwhile, the Packers laid a massive egg last week vs. the Saints. They managed just three points and 229 total yards on offense, which is about as bad as they’ve looked with Aaron Rodgers under center.
Can the Packers bounce back and take care of business at home? Let’s dive in.
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers Week 2 Odds
Date/Time: September 20, 8:15 p.m. ET
Arena: Lambeau Field
How to watch: ESPN/ABC
Opening odds: Packers -10 | O/U 49.5
Latest Lions-Packers odds
Looking for the latest odds for this matchup? Here they are, with the best prices from DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Packers -12.0
- Total: 49.0
For up-to-date odds, check out DraftKings Sportsbook.
Opening odds – Lions vs. Packers
The Packers opened up as 10-point favorites on the advance line, but that disappeared quickly. They moved to approximately 11-point favorites on Monday, and the line has bounced between 11.5 and 12.5 since then.
The Packers have received virtually all of the betting activity in this game, which is not surprising. They’ve received 63% of the spread tickets at the time of writing, and those have accounted for 86% of the spread dollars. Even though the Packers were a major disappointment last week, most still believe them to be vastly superior to the Lions.
As for the total, it has stayed pretty stagnant. It opened at 49.5 but has dipped to 49.0 or 48.5 in most locations. The betting activity on the total points towards the sharps liking the under. The under has received just 38% of the tickets, but they comprise 71% of the dollars.
Quarterback analysis — Jared Goff vs. Aaron Rodgers
Jared Goff enters this season with minimal expectations. He did post a borderline MVP season back in 2018, but he regressed badly over the past two seasons. Basically, all of his success has been attributed to playing for Sean McVay, who is one of the most innovative coaches in football.
Goff did nothing to change anyone’s mind last week vs. the 49ers. They have an excellent defense, but Goff averaged just 6.2 adjusted yards per attempt. His final stats look fine on the surface — 338 passing yards with three touchdowns — but he needed 57 attempts and a lot of garbage time to get there.
Goff also doesn’t give bettors a warm and fuzzy feeling. He owns a career record of just 8-10 ATS as an underdog, and last week was the first time in four chances he covered when getting more than a touchdown. If the 49ers didn’t take their foot off the gas and the Lions didn’t recover an onside kick, Goff could very well be 0-4 ATS as an underdog of at least 7.5 points.
On the other hand, Aaron Rodgers is absolutely lethal as a home favorite. Only Tom Brady has made bettors more money as a home favorite since 2004, and that’s simply due to more volume in that situation. Rodgers’ return on investment of +22.1% is the best mark of any quarterback who has made at least 20 starts as a home favorite. His record sits at a pristine 54-32-3 during the regular season in that situation.
Additionally, Rodgers has historically been money off of a loss. He owns a record of 36-21-1 ATS after dropping his previous game, good for a return on investment of +23.8%.
Basically, if you’re worried about Rodgers and the Packers at this point, you need to R-E-L-A-X.
Latest Lions betting news & info
If the Lions weren’t facing a tough enough task as it is, they’re also coming into this game shorthanded. Jeff Okudah is out for the rest of the year after suffering a torn Achilles tendon. Okudah hasn’t had a great start to his pro career, but he was the No. 3 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. There was some hope that he’d take a step forward in his second season.
Tyrell Williams has also been ruled out with a concussion. The Lions were already thin at wide receiver, and now they’re without their No. 1 option. Kalif Raymond is also questionable with a thigh injury, so the Lions would be very shorthanded if he’s unable to suit up. That could create some value with guys like Quintez Cephus and Amon-Ra St. Brown in the player prop market.
Finally, D’Andre Swift is also listed as questionable with a groin injury, but he was able to get in a full practice on Saturday. That means he should be good to go, but if he’s surprisingly ruled out, the Lions would be nearly devoid of playmakers on offense.
Latest Packers betting news & info
The Packers’ injury woes aren’t nearly as bad. Starting guard Lucas Patrick is their only key player whose status is up in the air. He practiced on a limited basis on Saturday, but he’s currently listed as questionable.
I’ll be interested in monitoring the prop bets for Davante Adams in this matchup. He unsurprisingly struggled last week, but he has absolutely demolished the Lions in recent years:
He demolished the Lions to the tune of seven catches for 115 yards and one touchdown in their last meeting, and the Lions’ secondary is arguably the worst in the league this season. I will be looking to pounce on most of Adams’ overs in this matchup.
Lions vs. Packers betting picks – NFL Week 2
If it isn’t already abundantly clear, I’m rolling with the Packers in this contest. They’re simply too good at Lambeau Field, and Rodgers has historically thrived following a loss. The Lions showed some resilience last week vs. the 49ers, but they still fell behind 41-17 at home. How can they realistically compete with Rodgers on the road? As long as this line stays under two touchdowns, I have no problem eating the chalk with the Packers.
I’m also interested in all the Adams props. Adams to score and the Packers to win? Sure. Adams over 100 yards? You bet. Adams to score multiple touchdowns? Why not. This could be a great opportunity to utilize the same-game parlay feature at FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook to build yourself a longshot ticket with upside.
FTNBets best bets
- Packers -12.0
For more information, betting picks and analysis, check out the FTN NFL Bet Tracker.
How to bet on this game
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