Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
You gotta know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em…
Who would have known that Kenny Rogers’ famous 1978 song would actually transcend to 2022 and apply to Mojo? This week I agreed to battle FTN’s Josh Gross and Benny Ricciardi in a Mojo challenge to battle for bragging rights. We all started with $1,000 and agreed to track our progress throughout the remainder of the NFL season. I started the challenge last week by making three purchases.
Initial Mojo Investments
Michael Pittman, Indianapolis Colts
Share Price: $15.31
Shares: 26.65
Multiplier: 3X
Rationale: Prior to Indianapolis benching Matt Ryan, Michael Pittman seemed like a fantastic buy for a Colts team that started to play uptempo. After missing Week 2 with a quad strain, Pittman had seen 33 targets in the prior three weeks. By using a 3X multiplier, I saw a strong few weeks for a dominant WR1.
Brian Robinson, Washington Commanders
Share Price: $6.45
Shares: 60
Multiplier: 3X
Brian Robinson had everything I wanted in a rookie investment: Draft capital (R3), size (6’2” 225 pounds) and opportunity. Washington gave him 17 carries soon after his return. He passed the eye test and had a favorable schedule. Things appeared to be trending upward, but he has seen a decrease in attempts and yards over the past three weeks. Robinson is also a non-factor in the passing game.
Isaiah Likely, Baltimore Ravens
Share Price: $3.25
Shares: 60
Multiplier: 3X
Mark Andrews’ “questionable” tag made it a matter of time before Isaiah Likely played significant snaps in Baltimore. His price was so low, that just one big game could have produced a quick profit. Likely delivered with six receptions (seven targets), 77 receiving yards and a touchdown on Thursday night after Andrews left with an injury. Likely was low risk and high reward.
After Sunday night, my Mojo portfolio had dropped $90. Kudos to Benny for liquidating his portfolio and going all-in on Dallas running back Tony Pollard with a 5X multiplier. With approximately a $300 deficit, I decided to liquidate my shares of Pittman and Robinson, putting my total value into one player for tonight’s Monday Night Football matchup.
Week 9 Investment
Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals
Share Price: $19.27
Shares: 37.1
Multiplier: 5X
With Ja’Marr Chase’s injury (torn labrum/hip fracture) sidelining him for 4-6 weeks, Tee Higgins has a chance to operate as Cincinnati’s overall WR1 for the foreseeable future. He has a fantastic matchup tonight against rival Cleveland, who ranks 28th in defensive pass DVOA. Tonight’s game has a modest 45 over/under total but projects to be a close game. By getting 37 shares at a 5X multiplier, I am hoping for a $1 increase tonight to gain roughly $150.
Higgins also has some very favorable upcoming matchups with Carolina at home in Week 9, followed by a bye week, and then three plum matchups against Pittsburgh, Tennessee and Kansas City. That should provide a solid opportunity for the 23-year-old wideout to help me recoup my opening week losses.
Summary
I’m going to stay with Isaiah Likely, who should be able to carve out a role even if Mark Andrews returns next Monday night against New Orleans. If Andrews doesn’t play in that game, Likely should see another fantastic boost. I’m hoping for a big night from Higgins to bring me back to even and mitigate the positive results from Benny and Josh.
I can hear Kenny’s song in my head on repeat. Here’s hoping my folds with Pittman and Robinson will benefit me in the short- and long-term future.
