NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
As the calendar turns to December, it is critical to identify those unique opportunities to grab some late-season investment value at Mojo.
Week 13 marks the beginning of the last third of the NFL season. At this point, most rookies that were going to make an impact have already done so. It is rare to see a rookie start to make an impact this last in the NFL season.
So, where should we turn for late-season upside investments?
Underperforming veterans who have a chance to improve their stock price with a great late-season rally.
Mojo Spotlight: Najee Harris
Najee Harris provided a brilliant rookie season in 2021. The 24-year-old Alabama product finished first among all running backs in targets (94) and receptions (74), while ranking fourth in rushing yards (1,200) and third in receiving yards (467). He was a complete workhorse for Pittsburgh, finishing second overall in carries (307).
This season has been a constant struggle for Harris, who suffered a Lisfranc injury in the preseason that limited his explosiveness for the first half of 2022. While Harris did not miss a game, he also failed to average 4.0 yards per carry in six of his first seven games. The Steelers ground game was atrocious, and Harris only produced one game with over 65 rushing yards through Week 9. However, there is plenty of reason for optimism with Harris over the final third of the season.
Harris finally looks healthy, and his production has returned to the superb levels of his rookie season. He has rushed for 90 or more yards in each of the past two games against strong run defenses. Harris posted 99 rushing yards on 5.0 YPC against the Saints and 90 yards at 4.5 yards per carry last week against the Bengals. In each of those games, Harris saw 20 carries, providing the exact type of volume needed to maximum weekly production. Pittsburgh has also started to maximize Harris’ receiving ability, giving him six targets in two of the past three weeks. With rookie Kenny Pickett as starting quarterback, the Steelers do not want to take many chances downfield. The offense has started to once again center around Harris.
Monday Night Matchup: Indianapolis
Tonight, Harris will face an Indianapolis defense that appears to be a difficult matchup. The Colts rank middle of the league with just 971 rushing yards allowed this season. However, over the last three weeks, the Colts have been ravaged through the air by opposing running backs. They have allowed 17 receptions (second most) to opposing rushers, which should provide Harris with ample opportunities on all three downs.
Last week against Cincinnati, Harris recorded a season-high 89.7% snap share. He is their most productive running back on the roster and is now completely trusted after recovering from the Lisfranc injury.
Pittsburgh’s upcoming schedule is also favorable. From Weeks 14-17, the Steelers have the sixth-easiest schedule for running back production, which include favorable matchups against Carolina and Las Vegas. Harris will also face the Ravens twice, who he posted five receptions and over 100 total yards against in Week 13 last season.
Mojo Price: Capitalize on Value
Harris’ price on Mojo has plummeted over 26% in the past year, dropping $4.31 since the start of the 2022 season. Investors have struggled to see his value after the injury, placing his current share price at just $11.96.
Harris is a talented, three-down running back who has one of the largest weekly workloads of any rusher. He also has a ton of upside, with a price point that once reached $18.25 per share. In fact, Harris’ Mojo value is only up $0.52 from his IPO (Initial Public Offering) in August of 2021.
It is not hard to envision Harris posting 100 total yards and a touchdown against the Colts, which could spur a strong finish to the season. This should easily push his price point over $12 or possibly $13 per share, still well below his highest career mark. I’m investing in Harris prior to tonight’s matchup, as a “Go Long” value over the final third of the NFL season.
