NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Finally, you can turn your sports knowledge into real cash by investing in an athlete’s entire career. Prices rise and fall with every hit, huddle, and headline — and you can buy and sell instantly or hold for as long as you want. Three times a week, FTN will feature a player and his Mojo value — is it time to buy, sell, hold or short? Click here to get in on the Mojo action.
I have always been a huge fan of David Njoku.
The 6-foot-4, 246-pound Miami product has always been one of the best athletes on the field, dating back to his pre-collegiate dominance at Cedar Grove High School in New Jersey. Despite carrying first-round draft capital from 2017, Njoku has underwhelmed during his prior six NFL seasons.
Coming off a huge Week 3 performance, is now the time to invest in the Browns’ explosive tight end? Or will this just be another momentary outlier in a disappointing career?
David Njoku History
Entering the 2017 NFL Draft, Njoku was a highlight of a dominant tight end class. Njoku was one of three tight ends drafted in that first round, joining O.J. Howard of Alabama and Evan Engram of Ole Miss. Despite the fanfare, all three players have greatly underperformed.
Cleveland surprised NFL fans by signing Njoku to a four-year extension in May, worth up to $56.75 million. This made him the NFL’s fifth-highest paid tight end. This was an extremely lucrative deal for a player that failed to crest 56 receptions and 639 receiving yards in any season.
Excluding his 2018 campaign, Njoku has failed to record a better fantasy finish than overall TE24. However, his superior workout metrics have always kept the possibility open for a breakout season. After Week 1 of this season, even the most loyal Njoku-truthers started to have skepticism. In a come-from-behind 26-24 win at Carolina, Njoku only managed one reception for seven yards despite running 24 routes. He finished as a shocking TE44 in PPR formats.
Changing the Historic Narrative
Since that Week 1 victory, Njoku’s numbers have steadily increased. In Week 2, he played every snap, seeing five targets and tallying three receptions for 32 receiving yards. Not a dominant performance, but good enough for the tight end to register the TE22 stat line.
Njoku’s Week 3 production finally started to justify the Browns’ financial commitment. He ranked as the overall TE2, only behind Baltimore’s Mark Andrews. Njoku posted nine receptions (on 10 targets), 89 yards, and a touchdown. These numbers have offset that disappointing opening game and have Njoku on a path to a career-best season.
Per PlayerProfiler, Njoku ranks among the positional leaders in a multitude of categories:
- Catchable Target Rate (1st)
- Red Zone Targets (4th)
- Yards After Catch (3rd)
- Production Premium (2nd)
At Mojo, Njoku’s stock price after Week 1 dropped to $7.62, the lowest value since Dec. 25 last year. However, after a superb Week 3, his stock price hit a one-year high of $8.32 at 8:00 pm during the night of his dominant performance.
Currently, Njoku shares have plummeted to $7.22, the lowest value since the start of last season. Why the sudden drop?
Investors don’t believe Njoku’s production is sustainable.
Believing in David Njoku
It’s always helpful to find a stock that has the proven potential to grow higher than current value. Njoku’s price history reached as high as $9.85 entering the 2019 season. That is a direct result of the career year in 2018, but projections safely have Njoku cresting all those numbers during this season.
With quarterback Deshaun Watson suspended through Week 11, Cleveland will continue to rely on veteran Jacoby Brissett under center. Brissett, a notoriously conservative quarterback, is averaging a paltry 6.5 yards per attempt (26th among all quarterbacks). Njoku’s short to intermediate route dominance should continue to provide opportunities throughout the majority of the season.
I’m buying on Njoku’s price dip, and believing his Week 3 production is a harbinger of things to come. His price has hit a value that is 36.4% higher than the current value. Cleveland has put a serious financial investment in the 26-year-old tight end, and I’m betting Njoku starts to consistently deliver on his immense talent.
