Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Week 3 brings us two close matchups with Philadelphia traveling to Tampa Bay and the Los Angeles Rams visiting Cincinnati.
Here are my two favorite prop bets for tonight’s Monday Night matchups!
Monday Night Football Prop Bets
D’Andre Swift Over 2.5 Receptions
(+230, PointsBet)
While D’Andre Swift is likely to see a regression off his massive 175-yard rushing performance against Minnesota, we think this is worth an investment at the +230 odds on PointsBet. Swift saw three receptions on six targets against the Vikings, but the return of Kenneth Gainwell has bettors concerned about Swift’s workload.
However, with Tampa Bay’s rush defense being elite, teams have tried to attack the Buccaneers through the air with running backs. Opposing running backs have averaged 6.5 targets per game against the Buccaneers, securing nine receptions on those 13 total targets. Swift has been an elite pass-catcher, totaling 160 receptions in just over three seasons. Using our FTN Prop Shop, the majority of sportsbooks have Swift’s receiving props at 1.5 receptions, juiced heavily to the over.
Joe Mixon Under 63.5 Rushing Yards
(-110, FanDuel)
With Joe Burrow’s status for tonight’s game uncertain, most are expecting the Bengals to lean on Joe Mixon to have a heavier workload than normal. That has driven Mixon’s rushing yardage prop up to 63.5 rushing yards, and we are grabbing the under on that number. The Bengals pass offense has struggled all year, ranking 27th in pass offense DVOA. Mixon now faces a Rams rush defense that is anchored by DT Aaron Donald. Mixon has fallen short of this number in both of Cincinnati’s games this season. We project Mixon for 52.1 rushing yards, equating to an 8.8% edge and 61.1% win probability.
Last year, Mixon was under this number in nine of the 14 regular season games. The Bengals running attack has not been efficient for several years, and facing the Rams defense with a limited Burrow under center attracts me to the under in this close matchup on Monday Night.
